Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna Are Back for the Braves
The Braves have become the beast of the NL East over the past four seasons, leading to four division titles and a World Series victory in 2021. Over this span, they have gone 310-235 while outscoring their opponents by 408 runs. Atlanta has made the postseason 21 times over the past 30 years, with another championship in 1995.
Their pitching staff finished eighth in ERA (3.88). The Braves bullpen picked up 31 wins, 33 losses and 40 saves, with a step back in ERA (3.97 – 10th). Atlanta scored 790 runs (eighth), hit 239 home runs (third) and stole 59 bags (21st).
The only two players signed were C Manny Pina and RP Kirby Yates. In addition, they acquired RP Jay Jackson in a minor deal with the Giants. Atlanta could lose 1B Freddie Freeman, OF Eddie Rosario, OF Joc Pederson, OF Jorge Soler, RP Richard Rodriguez, RP Chris Martin, SP Drew Smyly and C Stephen Vogt to free agency. None of these players have signed with a new team before the lockout. The Braves need to find a way to lock up Freeman to solidify the middle of their batting order.
Atlanta's front office made all the right moves in 2021 to fill the voids on the roster after losing OF Ronald Acuna and OF Marcell Ozuna. However, the current structure of their offense has multiple questions that need to be answered after the lockout via free agency. The Braves hope OF Drew Waters and OF Cristian Pache can develop quickly into major-league assets.
Their bullpen had three top lefties last season, with RP Will Smith shining in the ninth inning. This season Atlanta needs to find the right combination of right-handed arms to push higher in the bullpen rankings. RP Kirby Yates should help late in the season after he recovers from his TJ surgery.
The foundation of the starting rotation looks to be four deep if Mike Soroka can bounce back from his recent injuries. The Braves also have multiple options to chip at the backend of their rotation.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
OF Ronald Acuna
The Braves lost Acuna for the season on July 10 with a torn ACL in his right knee. His success over 82 games projected over the entire season came to 142 runs, 47 home runs, 103 RBI and 34 stolen bases, which would have ranked him first for hitters in SIscore (13.51). Typically, the recovery time from his injury takes between 6-9 months, giving him a chance to be ready by opening day. In mid-January, he was healthy enough to take batting practice.
Over his time with Atlanta, Acuna has a contact batting average of .402 while pushing his average hit rate to an elite level in 2020 (2.325) and 2021 (2.107). In addition, last season, he had the best approach of his career (strikeout rate – 23.6 and walk rate – 13.6). His hard-hit rate (54.8) was the eighth highest in baseball. Acuna brings a rising fly-ball rate (45.6), plus strength in his HR/FB rate (24.2), launch angle (18.2 – 46th) and barrel rate (20.2 – fourth).
Acuna has a top-shelf RBI rate (17.5) for his career. His bat has electric upside against left-handed pitching (.302 with six home runs and 16 RBI over 63 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Without a doubt, Acuna would be the top hitter drafted in 2022 if he didn’t have a cloud of missed playing time hanging over him during the early draft season. His ADP (12) looks like an absolute steal for the fantasy managers who can read between the lines on his recovery time. Generally, I avoid players coming off major injuries the following season, but Acuna has the foundation to be a five-category beast even with a slow start to the season. I have him on a path to hit .290 with 110 runs, 30 home runs, 90 RBI and 25 stolen bases while missing about four weeks. His spring training news and success will drive his ADP in March.
2B Ozzie Albies
Other than batting average (.259), Albies was a fantasy stud in 2021 for his position. He finished 15th in SIscore (6.01) for hitters while setting career-highs in home runs (30), RBI (106) and stolen bases (20). In addition, Albies excelled with runners on base (RBI rate – 20) while pushing his average hit rate (1.883) to a new high.
His strikeout rate (18.7) remains better than the league average. However, Albies offers a below-bar walk rate (6.9). Despite a rise in power, he had a regression in his HR/FB rate (12.2). His jump in home runs came from a rising fly-ball rate (48.5) and improved launch angle (21.1 – ninth). This combination also explains why his contact batting average (.325) dipped (easier outs via the flyouts). Albies posted a dull hard-hit rate (37.2 – 212th) and a mediocre barrel rate (9.3).
He played exceptionally well against left-handed pitching (.323 with nine home runs and 33 RBI over 164 at-bats). Conversely, Albies only hit .237 vs. righties with 21 home runs and 73 RBI over 465 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
Albies was a top 30 hitter in baseball in 2018 and 2019 while reaching a new ceiling last season. He plays in a high-scoring lineup with the tools to help in four categories. His 2022 question comes from his next move. Albies looks improved with a better swing path, but a slight change in thought process could lead to more infield flies and a drop in home runs. His ADP (20) falls precisely on his final 2021 ranking. Albies has a lot in common with 3B Jose Ramirez at this point in his career. I’ll draw the line at .270 with 100 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI and 20 stolen bases.
1B Freddie Freeman
Note: As of February 1, Freeman is unsigned. I’m placing him on the Braves for now. If he ends up elsewhere, I’ll update both rosters and the end of his profile to reflect his roster change.
Freeman underachieved in multiple areas last season, partly due to a slow start in batting average (.213) over his first 127 at-bats (19 runs, nine home runs and 21 RBI). His contact batting average (.365) was a five-year low, but he still hit .300, thanks to repeated success in his strikeout rate (15.4). However, Freeman had a sharp decline in his RBI rate (15 – 21.5 from 2018 to 2020). He still has a plus walk rate (12.2).
His average hit rate (1.678) didn’t support 30 home runs. Freeman continues to have a low fly-ball rate (32.5) and shallow launch angle (12.0). He ranked 67th in hard-hit rate (46.1).
After the All-Star break, Freeman hit .332 with 62 runs and 33 RBI, but only 12 balls left the park. He never had a month with over 18 RBI. Over the past five seasons, Freeman never had more than 394 runners on base, compared to 435 in 2012, 409 in 2014 and 402 in 2016.
Fantasy Outlook
Heading into his 13th year, Freeman needs 1,296 hits to reach 3,000. He has hit over .300 in six seasons while only scoring over 100 runs three times (102, 113 and 120) and driving in more than 100 runs twice (109 and 121). His ADP (19) ranks him second at first base in the early draft season in the NFBC. Last year, Freeman ranked 16th by SIscore (5.91) for batters. His resume says he is a .300/100/30/100/7 player.
OF Marcell Ozuna
The Braves lost Ozuna 48 games into 2021 due to two broken fingers on his left hand. In addition, a domestic issue in early August put him out of action for the remainder of the season. In late November, major league baseball gave him a 20-game suspension, retroactive to last year.
Ozuna was an excellent fit for the Braves in 2020. He led the National League in home runs (18), RBI (56) and plate appearances (267) while posting his highest batting average (.338 – .276 in his career) by a wide margin. His RBI rate (20) was also the best of his career.
He pushed his average hit rate (1.883) to a new level. His contact batting average (.458) isn’t repeatable over a long season. Ozuna has a rising fly-ball rate (40.2 – 34.5 in his career) while setting a career-high in his HR/FB rate (26.5).
His bat had strength against right-handers (.333 with 11 home runs and 37 RBI over 183 at-bats) and lefties (.356 with seven home runs and 19 RBI over 45 at-bats).
Last year, Ozuna had a sharp decline in his contact batting average (.282) while lacking enough at-bats to correct his slow start. He didn’t have a regression in his approach. Therefore, I’m dismissing all his data from last year.
Fantasy Outlook
After re-signing with the Braves in 2021, Ozuna had an ADP of 47. This draft season in the NFBC, fantasy managers gave him an ADP of 196 in January. This year, the Braves should hit him in the middle of their lineup again, leading to a .270/85/25/90 type season. Ozuna is mispriced in drafts. His actual value should be a top-70 hitter.
3B Austin Riley
Riley ended up being a big win for fantasy managers in 2021. He finished with excellent stats in runs (91), home runs (33), RBI (107) and batting average (.303) when adding his ADP (208) from last season. Riley had a sharp rise in his contact batting average (.424 – .324 in 2020), leading to his success in batting average.
His strikeout rate (25.4) needs work while owning close to a league average walk rate (7.9). Despite an uptick in home runs, Riley didn’t have growth in his average hit rate (1.749). Only three of his 33 home runs came off left-handed pitching (.274 BAA over 135 at-bats).
He finished with a line drive swing path (25.1%), with a slight uptick in his fly-ball rate (36.7 – 34.5 in 2020). Riley ranked 72nd in hard-hit rate (45.6) and 44th in barrel rate (13.3). His bat came alive after the All-Star break (.333 with 49 runs, 19 home runs and 65 RBI over 282 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
The rise in power by Riley wasn’t a surprise based on his minor-league resume. He even showcased an elite contact batting average (.430) over 408 at-bats in 2018 in the minors. However, his ADP (52) relies on him hitting for batting average and batting clean-up again. His SIscore (4.67) ranked him 25th for hitters last season, with 2.24 points coming from batting average. His value for me will hinge on where Freeman signs and where the Braves hit Riley in the batting order. With 550 at-bats, I see .270 with 85 runs, 30 home runs and 90 RBI.
SS Dansby Swanson
Over the past two years, Swanson missed only two games, leading to sneaky fantasy value. He finished 22nd in SIscore (1.98) in 2020 and 62nd in 2021 (1.13). Last year, Swanson set career-highs in at-bats (588), runs (78), home runs (27) and RBI (88). His average hit rate (1.808) rose for the fourth consecutive season.
His strikeout rate (25.6) has been above his career average (23.7) in back-to-back years. Swanson posted a walk rate of 8.0 in every season in the majors.
Swanson played at his highest level over 78 games from May 19-Aug. 16 (.296 with 49 runs, 19 home runs, 57 RBI and seven stolen bases over 301 at-bats). The Braves hit him fifth or sixth in the batting order for 452 of his at-bats last year.
Fantasy Outlook
Despite his success over the last two seasons, Swanson is the 75th hitter drafted in January in the NFBC with an ADP of 126. He projects as a steady four-category player while having some risk in batting average. However, his 2022 midseason run suggests he may have another gear.
OF Adam Duvall
After offering a power bat in 2016 (.241 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI over 552 at-bats) and 2017 (.249 with 31 home runs and 99 RBI over 587 at-bats), Duvall faded to a bench role in 2018 and 2019.
Over his 186 games with the Braves over the past four seasons, he hit .235 with 85 runs, 42 home runs and 97 RBI over 562 at-bats. The Marlins signed him before last year, leading to success in power (22 home runs and 68 RBI over 314 at-bats). However, injuries in the Braves’ outfield led to them acquiring him in late July. Duvall finished the year with a career-high in home runs (38) while finishing with the most RBIs (113) in the National League.
His strikeout rate (31.4) was a career-high with a below-par walk rate (6.5). Duvall continues to have a top-shelf average hit rate (2.154). He had a spike in his RBI rate (21), which doesn’t look repeatable (14.7% in his career).
Fantasy Outlook
The DH in the National League helps Duvall’s chance of getting starting at-bats this year. However, his fading approach paints him as a streaky player who could quickly lose playing time when he isn’t making contact. He comes off the board at pick 229 in January in the NFBC. Pretty much low-average power, but Duvall can’t help fantasy teams if he is sitting on the bench.
C Travis d’Arnaud
After a quiet opening month (.220 over 82 at-bats with five runs, two home runs and 11 RBI), d’Arnaud landed on the injured list for almost 14 weeks with a sprained left thumb. He hit .222 with 16 runs, five home runs and 15 RBI over 126 at-bats to end the season.
D’Arnaud finished with the best batting average (.321) of his career in 2020. His contact batting average (.461) gained more than 110 percentage points higher than 2019 (.348) while also being well above 2016 (.308) and 2017 (.294).
Over the past three seasons, d’Arnaud hit .258 with 92 runs, 32 home runs and 129 RBI over 725 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
This season d’Arnaud has an ADP of 204 in January in the NFBC as the 11th catcher drafted. His foundation skill set points to a .250 batting average with 50 runs, 15 home runs, 50 RBI with 400 at-bats. The Braves lineup should give plenty of RBI chances, but he needs to stay healthy to outperform his price point.
OF Orlando Arcia
Arcia failed to reach his potential over the last five years with the Brewers (.244 with 182 runs, 42 home runs, 180 RBI and 39 stolen bases over 1,733 a-bats). In Milwaukee, his bat flashed in 2017 (.277/56/15/53/14 over 506 at-bats), but he slowly played his way to the bench and off the team.
The Braves acquired Arcia in early April and shipped him to minors. Over 322 at-bats at AAA, he hit .282 with 54 runs, 17 home runs, 37 RBI and five steals. His approach (strikeout rate – 11.8 and walk rate – 9.6) was much improved. In Atlanta, Arcia failed to make an impact over 70 at-bats (.214/9/2/13/1).
His swing path remains ground ball favoring (50.8%) in the majors, but he had more confidence and success at AAA (fly-ball rate – 39.8 and HR/FB rate – 17.0).
Fantasy Outlook
Arcia projects as a utility player in 2022 while offering a more stable approach than their top two outfield prospects. The Braves should add another bat, possibly two, if they don’t re-up Freeman. Arcia may work as a short-term fill-in if he starts off hot.
OF Drew Waters
Waters hit .283 with 255 runs over four seasons in the minors, 31 home runs, 152 RBI and 73 steals over 1,589 at-bats. His bat lost momentum in batting average (.240) last year at AAA, but he finished with productive runs (70) and stolen bases (28) for his at-bats (404).
His contact batting average (.370) in 2021 remained high but the lowest of his career. Waters needs to clean up his strikeout rate (30.9 at AAA and 27.4 in the minors). His walk rate (7.9) came in below the league average.
Fantasy Outlook
Once Waters solves his plate discipline issues, his bat will come fast. He needs to prove his bat can handle AAA before getting his chance with the Braves. Waters has a potential 20/30 skill set based on his progression in speed in 2021. I rate him higher than Cristian Pache, but he has a higher ADP (738) in the NFBC.
OF Cristian Pache
The Braves signed Pache as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .280 with 257 runs, 32 home runs, 215 RBI and 67 stolen bases over 1,970 at-bats. However, he failed to hit a home run over his first two seasons (689 at-bats) while offering a weak average hit rate (1.235).
Pache picked up 43 steals on 63 attempts over his first two years, but his baserunning was a lost asset in 2018 (7-for-15), 2019 (8-for-19) and 9-for-16). At the same time, he started to get stronger, leading to 23 home runs over his last 808 at-bats. However, his strikeout rate (27.5) did rise at AAA in 2021.
Last year, the Braves gave him 63 at-bats, but Pache was overmatched (.111 with six runs, one home run, four RBI and 25 strikeouts). He battled a hamstring issue in May.
Fantasy Outlook
After a regression season, Pache needs to reignite his bat at AAA this season. In the NFBC in January, his ADP (652) is well off fantasy managers’ radar. Only an in-season watch, but I won’t work too hard to follow him.
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Starting Pitching
SP Max Fried
Over the past three seasons, Fried went 38-13 with a 3.35 ERA and 381 strikeouts over 387.1 innings. He graded well in his command (2.5 walks per nine) and his strikeout rate (8.9).
Last year, Fried threw the most strikes of his career (65.8%), leading to a career-low walk rate (2.2). His season started with struggles in two of three games in April (14 runs, 28 base runners and three home runs over 11 innings). The Braves placed him on the injured list for three weeks with a hamstring issue.
He allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his final 25 starts while posting a 2.44 ERA and 144 strikeouts over 154.2 innings. Batters only hit .208. Fried followed up his success with a 4.23 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 27.2 innings in the postseason. He allowed 11 runs, 18 baserunners and two home runs over 9.2 innings in two poor starts.
His AFB (94.0) pushed to a career-high. Fried gains his edge with three plus pitches (curveball – .183 BAA, slider – .204 BAA and a show-me changeup – .091 BAA). His four-seamer (.276 BAA) needs work while owning success with his sinker (.234 BAA).
Fried has out-pitched his minor league career (19-33 with a 4.18 ERA and 417 strikeouts over 420.1 innings).
He is a ground ball pitcher (51.8%) who has a slightly rising fly-ball rate (27.7).
Fantasy Outlook
His success pushes Fried to ace status this draft season based on his ADP (73) as the 26th pitcher off the table. Fried ranked 22nd in SIscore (2.45) for pitchers in 2021. His next step is making 33 starts and pushing his inning total to 190. Trending toward 15 wins with a 3.00 ERA and 200 strikeouts. Over his final nine starts, he averaged 6.9 innings while never throwing more than 99 pitches in a game (averaged 94 pitches).
SP Mike Soroka
After a pitch in his third start in 2020, one wrong step led to Soroka blowing out his right Achilles that required surgery in August. He never made it back to the mound for the Braves last year due to a bum right shoulder in May and a setback in his Achilles (re-tear in late June that required surgery).
In 2019, he made some progress late in March, but he started the year at AAA (four runs over 9.1 innings with 10 strikeouts). After a call-up to Atlanta, Soroka allowed one run or fewer in each of his first eight starts (5-1 with 1.07 ERA and 46 strikeouts over 50.2 innings). He looked mediocre over his next nine games (3.83 ERA) before rebounding over his final 12 starts (2.99 ERA and 56 strikeouts over 72.1 innings).
In late June of 2019, his right forearm had some tightness, but the issue ended up being minor.
Soroka wasn’t major-league ready against left-handed batters (.279 with nine home runs over 355 at-bats).
His AFB (93.0) came in at the league average. He gains his advantage via his slider (.173 BAA) and changeup (.125 BAA). In addition, Soroka is a sinkerball pitcher with a high ground ball rate (50.9).
Over five seasons in the minors, Soroka went 23-20 with a 2.84 ERA and 331 strikeouts over 370.2 innings while offering outstanding command (1.9 walks per nine).
Fantasy Outlook
Soroka should be ready for spring training. His lack of pitching rates him as fantasy road kill based on his January ADP (557) in the NFBC. The highest anyone has selected him is pick 344. I was prepared to be cautious with his outlook when tying together shoulder, forearm and Achilles issues, but I can see a no-risk gift when I see one. With negative injury news in spring training, Soroka should push rapidly up draft boards. Potential edge in WHIP while needing to improve his strikeout rate.
SP Charlie Morton
Over his first eight starts, Morton posted a 5.08 ERA, 1.436 WHIP and 44 strikeouts over 39 innings, giving fantasy managers the heebie-jeebies about using him in future games. However, he regained momentum over his next nine starts (3.04 ERA over 53 innings 63 strikeouts). Morton drove the bus home with 2.79 ERA and 109 strikeouts over 93.2 innings.
In the postseason, he allowed six runs and 21 baserunners over 16.2 innings with 22 strikeouts over four starts.
From 2017-21, Morton went 61-24 with a 3.34 ERA and 862 strikeouts over 732 innings.
His average fastball (95.6) regained about two MPH from 2021. In addition, Morton offered a dominating slider (.127 BAA) and an edge low-volume split-finger fastball (.182 BAA). Batters struggled to his four-seamer (.225 BAA) while having success against his slider (.273 BAA) and sinker (.315 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
After his excellent finish to last year, fantasy managers will have difficulty getting away from Morton this draft season. Unfortunately, the trap door opens even wider when you add his recent five-year resume. He finished 14th in SIscore (4.36) for pitchers last year, but his ADP (99) rates him as the 29th starting pitcher selected. What is not to like? Morton has a favorable price, giving him a cheat ace feel. The downside for me comes from his innings pitched. He threw over 200 innings for the first time of his career, a mere 144 more innings than 2020. Many top arms have issues each fantasy season, leading to bust years. I’m putting Morton in the avoid column while reflecting on his shoulder woos as well in 2020.
SP Ian Anderson
Over five seasons in the minors, Anderson went 17-21 with a 2.94 ERA and 471 strikeouts over 392.1 innings. His only negative was an alarming walk rate (4.1).
Anderson gave the Braves’ starting rotation a significant boost over the last five weeks of 2020. He went 3-0 over 32.1 innings with 14 strikeouts. His arm even held form over his four starts in the postseason (2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 24 strikeouts over 18.2 innings).
Last year, Anderson pitched well over his first nine starts (4-1 with a 2.82 ERA and 53 strikeouts), but he battled his command (3.7 per nine). His arm regressed over his next 45 innings (4.40 ERA, 1.311 WHIP and 45 strikeouts). He missed seven weeks over the summer with a right shoulder issue. Over his final six starts, Anderson posted a 3.62 ERA, .205 BAA, seven home runs and 26 strikeouts over 32.1 innings.
His average fastball (94.5) was challenging to hit (four-seamer – .216 BAA). Batters struggled with his changeup (.183 BAA), but they smashed eight home runs. His curveball (.272) remains a below-average pitch.
Anderson offered a special arm over his eight postseason starts (4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 35.2 innings). Atlanta won seven times when he stepped to the mound in the playoffs.
Fantasy Outlook
The Braves only allowed him to throw over 100 pitches in one of his 28 starts last year. Anderson can’t reach his ceiling until he cleans up his command while also creating some WHIP risk. His ADP (151) sits in a range with multiple upside arms. To improve his win ratio, Anderson must pitch deeper in games (he averaged 5.3 innings per start in 2021). Possible sub 3.25 ERA and 175 strikeouts with 165 innings pitched.
SP Huascar Ynoa
Ynoa is the type of arm I always stay clear of when they get called up to the majors. Over six seasons in the minors, he went 17-35 with 4.44 ERA and 402 strikeouts over 383 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate (4.1) was an issue for his whole career, which restricts the upside of his strikeouts (9.4 per nine). Ynoa had an ERA over 5.00 at High A (7.65), AA (5.27) and AAA (5.22).
Surprisingly, he pitched at a high level over his first three games (one run over 12 innings with two walks and 15 strikeouts) with the Braves. The Cubs beat him on April 17 (six runs, eight baserunners and three home runs over four innings). He bounced back over his next four starts (4-0 with a 1.11 ERA, .165 BAA and 24 strikeouts over 24.1 innings).
Batters caught up to him over his final 10 starts (0-5 with a 5.51 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, eight home runs and 56 strikeouts over 50.2 innings).
His average fastball (96.6) has plenty of life. Batters struggled to hit his slider (.226 BAA), four-seamer (.243 BAA) and changeup (.133 BAA). Ynoa finished with his best command (2.5 walks per nine) of his career, with a bump in his strikeout rate (9.9).
Fantasy Outlook
His signs of improvement will draw the attention of the stats guys in fantasy and his scouting report suggests Ynoa has an upside arm. However, his ADP (244) paints him as a fourth or fifth starter, depending on league size. My advice is to stay clear of his potential disaster innings. I would focus on the bulk of his resume and temper my expectations.
SP Tucker Davidson
After struggling at High A in 2018 (4.18 ERA, 1.504 WHIP and 99 strikeouts over 118.1 innings), Davidson found his stride over 29 starts between AA and AAA (2.00 ERA and 162 strikeouts over 152.2 innings). He dominated over four starts last year at AAA (three runs, 16 baserunners and 28 strikeouts over 23 innings), leading to his call-up to the majors.
Davidson allowed three runs over his first 17.2 innings with 14 strikeouts with Atlanta. A disaster showing in his next start on June 15 (five runs, six baserunners and two home runs over 2.1 innings) came from a left forearm issue. The Braves didn’t pitch him in another game until the postseason (two runs, five baserunners and one strikeout over two innings).
His average fastball (93.1) was about league average. Davidson had success with his slider (.108 BAA) and his low-volume curveball (.167 BAA). Batters did have their way with his four-seamer (.308 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Forearm issues can lead to elbow injuries, so Davidson has a minor red flag. However, his growth in his arm came from more velocity in his fastball and an improved slider. This year he’ll compete for a starting job with the Braves. His next step is improving his fastball command in and out of the strike zone.
SP Spencer Strider
In his freshman season at Clemson, Strider went 5-2 with a 4.76 ERA and 70 strikeouts over 51 innings. He walked 6.2 batters per nine innings. He blew out his right elbow before the next season, requiring TJ surgery. The Braves took a flier on him in the fourth round of the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Strider pushed his way through four levels of the minors to two appearances with the Braves. He went 3-7 over 22 games with a 3.64 ERA and 153 strikeouts over 94 innings. Strider pitched one clean inning with three strikeouts at AAA. In his two games in Atlanta, he allowed one run over 2.1 innings with one strikeout.
His fastball now has high 90s upside while featuring a swing-an-miss breaking pitch. Strider walked 3.8 batters per nine innings last year with a step back in value at AA (4.71 ERA and 94 strikeouts over 63 innings).
Fantasy Outlook
This season, the Braves may push Strider to their bullpen, where his two-pitch arsenal could have more value to the team. He projects to start the year at AAA. With better command and the development of his changeup, Strider may hit the major league ground running in 2022.
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Bullpen
SP Will Smith
In 2019, Smith proved to be more than worthy of being a top closing arm. His season started with a 1.98 ERA, 53 strikeouts and 23 saves over 36.1 innings. However, he tripped up in multiple games in July and August, leading to a drop back in value (4.64 ERA and 29 strikeouts over 21.1 innings). His struggles came from six home runs allowed (1.4 per nine innings). In addition, he missed some time in September (1.17 ERA over 7.2 innings with 14 strikeouts) with a back issue.
A July battle with COVID-19 led to Smith starting 2020 on the injured list and his opportunity to close games was lost.
Last season, he converted 37 of his 43 save chances, but Smith had regression in his command (3.7 walks per nine) while struggling with home runs (1.5 per nine). Over his last 149.1 innings, he served up 28 long balls (1.7 per nine).
His average fastball (92.8) has been in a tight range over the past four seasons. Smith still has an elite slider (.136 BAA), with success with his four-seamer (.228 BAA) and curveball (.211 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
The combination of fading command and lost balls over the fence invites job loss risk. His stuff remains challenging to hit, giving him a chance at a rebound in success. Smith has an ADP of 102 in January in the NFBC. Last season, the Braves don’t win the World Series if he didn’t pitch at an exceptional level (2-0 with no runs allowed over 11 innings with six saves and eight strikeouts). The ball is in your court.
RP A.J. Minter
Minter pushed his way through four minor-league levels in two seasons (2.14 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 59 innings) to get a late-inning job in the majors in 2017. In his first two years with the Braves, he looked closer-worthy (3.18 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 15 saves over 76.1 innings).
After a brutal 2019 (7.06 ERA and 2.011 WHIP) that required a trip back to AAA (3.57 ERA), Minter regained his form over the past two seasons (4-7 with a 2.92 ERA and 81 strikeouts over 74 innings).
His average fastball (96.1) remains elite while relying on a plus slider (.170 BAA) and a tough to hit four-seamer (.224 BAA). Last year, he added a cutter (.267 BAA) that had value vs. lefties (.143 BAA). Unfortunately, Minter lost the feel for his changeup (.300 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Minter has the tools to compete for the closing role, but he still doesn’t throw enough strikes (3.4 walks per nine). Minter will be free on draft day and he does make a lot of sense as a late closer-in-waiting (ADP – 746). With improved command, his arm will make a significant step forward. Minter had growth in his first-pitch strike rate (64) last year, a possible sign that he jumps Will Smith on the depth chart at some point in 2022.
RP Kirby Yates
In 2019, he proved to be the real deal at closer for the Padres after part-time success in the ninth inning in 2018 (12 saves). Yates led the National League in saves (41) in a season when saves were tough to come by.
He rode his elite, developing split-finger fastball (.174 BAA and 52 strikeouts over 121 at-bats) to an exceptional season in ERA (1.19) and a big step forward in his command (walk rate – 1.9 and strikeout rate – 15.0). Yates had success against both right-handed (.173) and left-handed (.197) batters.
He has a league-average fastball (93.7) while losing about a mile per hour from 2018 (94.6). Batters hit .216 vs. his four-seamer.
After looking sharp in his first appearance in 2020 (no runs or hits over one innings with two strikeouts), Yates blew up in his next two games (four runs and nine baserunners over 1.1 innings), setting him on a path for a lost season due to a right elbow injury. He ended up having TJ surgery the following March.
Fantasy Outlook
Yates will need a minimum of 15 months to recover from his elbow surgery. He has no draft value in 2022. Fantasy managers should keep tabs on him during the season to see if his arm can help their teams down the stretch.
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- AL EAST: Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays
- AL CENTRAL: Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins
- AL WEST: Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | Oakland A's | Seattle Mariners | Texas Rangers
