Fantasy Baseball: Free Agency Risers and Fallers
There has been an incredible flurry of free-agent moves in the past week, but which players have seen the most significant change in fantasy value? Here are six players to watch heading into your fantasy drafts.
Risers:
Kris Bryant (3B/OF)
Colorado Rockies
Kris Bryant leaves behind a bottom-five ballpark for hitters with the Giants to land in the number one ballpark for hitters, according to Statcast. Though Bryant's power has faded some in recent years, he did improve his barrel rate to 10.3% in 2021, and Coors should help bump up Bryant's batting average to be closer to what it was in his glory days at Wrigley. Bryant batted .267 with 25 home runs between the Cubs and the Giants last season, but I expect his BA should easily return to his career average of .278 at Coors, probably pushing .285. Bryant still has pop and a little speed, and he will likely be playing more OF in Colorado, allowing fantasy managers to deploy him both in the infield and the outfield. At the thin third base position, Bryant is on the rise.
Jonathan Villar (2B,3B,SS)
Chicago Cubs
Are you looking for speed without sacrificing power in later rounds? Look no further. Villar has the potential to steal 20-plus bags while also hitting 20-plus bombs with everyday playing time – and it looks like he should be getting that with this rebuilding Cubs club. Not only will he benefit from the DH in the NL, but Villar is also a versatile fielder that can be moved all around the infield. Villar hit .249 with 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases for the Mets in 2021. His max exit velocity (114.9) was the highest of his career last season and better than 94% of the league. The 30-year-old infielder has only had one season in which he played a full 162 games. That was 2019, when he batted .274 with 24 home runs and 40 stolen bases. Currently at pick 295, Villar's speed and power potential should have him moving up draft boards.
Luke Voit (1B/DH)
San Diego Padres
Finally, Luke Voit has a home, and he looks like a perfect fit for Slam-Diego. The Padres were in need of a bat, and Voit swings a big one. The 31-year-old slugger is just one season removed from leading the league with 22 homers in the shortened 2020 season while his expected slugging was in the top 5% of the league. Unfortunately, Voit could not follow up his strong 2020 campaign due to a series of injuries that limited him to only 68 games in 2021. By all reports, Voit is healthy and ready to go for 2022. San Diego's new DH can also help fill in for Eric Hosmer at 1B while providing the power San Diego will be missing while it awaits the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. from wrist surgery.
Josh Harrison (2B/3B)
Chicago White Sox
Harrison looks like he could be the new everyday second baseman for one of the more dominant lineups in the league. Even if Leury Garcia remains at second for the Sox, the 34-year-old Harrison can play almost everywhere in the infield. That sets up well for everyday playing time for the veteran. Harrison doesn't strike out and could contribute double-digit steals with regular opportunity. Last season, between two clubs, Harrison slashed .279/.341/.400 with eight home runs and nine stolen bases in 505 at-bats. His 13.4% K rate was top 6% of the league in 2021, and he could be a sneaky source for steals. He's currently got an ADP of 406, but has gone as early as the 11th round in recent drafts. Harrison is a great bench stash for batting average and speed with potential for double-digit home runs.
Fallers:
Jesse Winker (OF)
Seattle Mariners
Winker finally had the breakout season we all were waiting for in 2021, slashing .305/.394/.556 with 24 home runs across 113 games while calling the affectionately named 'Cincinnati Small Park' home. Unfortunately, Winker moves from one of the most hitter-friendly parks to one of the bottom three at T-Mobile, according to Statcast. Winker dominated right-handed pitching in 2021, but he struggled mightily with southpaws, batting only .176 with three home runs in 102 at-bats. At best, this is a lateral move, and those hoping for another step forward are likely to be disappointed. The 28-year-old outfielder has yet to play more than 113 games in a single season, Winker lacks speed upside, and it is unlikely he can maintain a .300 BA in Seattle. His ADP has already fallen more than seven spots to pick 107, and I expect it to fall further as more free agents sign with their new clubs.
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports
Will Smith (RP)
Atlanta Braves
Those who drafted Smith early with the hope of locking up a dependable closer are already looking to the waiver wire. With the addition of Kenley Jansen on Saturday, the Braves have announced they have found their new ninth-inning man. The Braves signed the Dodgers' free agent relief pitcher to a one-year, $16 million contract in an exciting twist of events after losing Freddie Freeman to Los Angeles just days before. Jansen is coming off a season with a 2.22 ERA. 1.04 WHIP and 38 saves. He is second among active players with 350 total saves, trailing only Craig Kimbrel. Smith will be in line for holds and will be the closer-in-waiting. He's a good bench stash, but fantasy managers will need to find their saves somewhere else.
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