Miami Dolphins 2022 Fantasy Outlook: Can Tua Tagovailoa Blossom in Year 3?
Coaching Staff
The Dolphins flipped their offensive coaching staff in the offseason despite finishing with a winning record in 2020 (10-6) and 2021 (9-8). Mike McDaniel takes over as their head coach after spending the past five seasons with the 49ers. From 2017 to 2020, he worked as their run game coordinator before being promoted to offensive coordinator last year. McDaniel has 15 seasons of coaching experience in the NFL.
Frank Smith makes the jump from run game coordinator and offensive line coach with the Chargers to Miami’s offensive coordinator. His NFL career started in 2010 with the Saints as their assistant offensive line coach. He’s been in the league for 12 seasons.
Miami finished 22nd in points scored (341), 63 points fewer than 2020 (404). In addition, they ranked 25th in offensive yards.
Josh Boyer returns for his third year as the defensive coordinator after working as the cornerbacks' coach for Miami in 2019 while handling the defensive pass game responsibilities. He previously worked in New England’s system for 13 seasons.
The Dolphins were league average in points allowed (373 – 16th) and yards allowed (15th) last season.
Free Agency
Miami pushed to improve this pass protection by signing LT Terron Armstead to a five-year deal for $75 million. They also brought in G Connor Williams to add depth to their offensive line.
They added RB Chase Edmonds, RB Raheem Mostert, WR Cedrick Wilson, and QB Teddy Bridgewater to their offense. The Dolphins parted ways with WR Will Fuller, QB Jacoby Brissett, and C Austin Reiter.
The most significant move in the offseason was the acquisition of WR Tyreek Hill for five draft picks (1st, 2nd, and 4th in 2022 and 4th and 6th in 2023).
Draft
With their four choices in this year’s draft, the Dolphins selected LB Channing Tindall (3.38), WR Erik Ezukanma (4.20), LB Cameron Goode (7.3), and QB Skylar Thompson (7.26).
Offensive Line
Miami dipped to 18th in the NFL in rushing attempts (442), leading to the 30th ranking in rushing yards (1,568) with 12 rushing touchdowns. Their rushers only had five runs over 20 yards and none over 40 yards while gaining only 3.5 yards per carry.
Their offensive line allowed 40 sacks (19th). The Dolphins inched up to 18th in passing yards (3,936) with 21 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
This year, the first business order for Miami’s offensive line is creating more prominent running lanes to take the pressure off their pass game. At the same time, QB Tua Tagovailoa needs to take fewer hard hits. His offensive line must deliver a longer passing window to reach his ceiling. I expect the Dolphins’ offense line to show more growth in 2022.
Offense
Miami almost had the same run/pass split (42/58) as Buffalo in 2021, but they gained only 3.5 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt.
The Dolphins added more explosiveness to their passing game while also upgrading their quickness at running back. As a result, Tua Tagovailoa looks poised to have a breakout season.
Quarterback
In 2019 at Alabama, Tagovailoa was on a higher path after nine games (2,840 passing yards with 33 touchdowns and three Ints) than Joe Burrow, but his season ended in mid-November with a significant hip injury and a broken nose. In Week 8 of that season, he passed for 418 yards with four touchdowns and one INT against LSU, but Burrow (393/3) won the game 46-41.
Tagovailoa had an exceptional TD:INT ratio (87:11) in college, with strength in his completion rate (70.0) over his last 24 games.
Over his first 23 games with Miami, Tagovailoa passed for 4,467 yards with 27 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while being sacked 40 times. He added 78 rushes for 237 yards and six scores.
Last year Miami played better late in the year (8-1) when Tagovailoa offered minimal impact value in passing yards (1,613 – 202 per game) and touchdowns (10). His only playable fantasy games came in Week 6 (351/2) and Week 7 (320/4).
Fantasy Outlook: The addition of WR Tyreek Hill gives Tagovailoa a natural rise in fantasy value. The change in coaching staff points to a focus on a power-run offense while looking to attack in the deep passing game. Miami has five viable passing catching options, which puts Tagovailoa on a path to deliver 4,500 combined yards with 30+ touchdowns. In the early draft season in the National Fantasy Football Championship, he ranks as a mid-range QB2 (18th).
Other Options: Teddy Bridgewater, Chris Streveler, Skylar Thompson
Running Back
The Dolphins’ running backs gained fewer than 4.0 yards per rush over the past three seasons. Last year they finished with a drop in usage in the passing game (72/427/4) while gaining an embarrassing 5.9 yards per catch. Their backs combined for 1,797 yards with 12 touchdowns and 72 catches in 2021.
In each of his four seasons in the NFL, Edmonds improved his output in yards despite never earning the lead role at running back. Despite missing five games last year with shoulder, ankle, back, and ribs issues, he set a career-high in combined yards (903) and touches (159) while gaining 5.1 yards per rush. Edmonds gained over 100 combined yards in three games, but his only impact performance came in Week 16 (26.70 fantasy points in PPR leagues). He continues to have a high floor in catches (2020 – 53/402/4 and 2021 – 43/311).
Fantasy Outlook: Miami will rotate multiple backs this year. Edmonds has a chance to 225 combined touches this season if he can stay healthy for 17 games. However, I don’t expect him to be a factor in scoring at the goal line. His ADP (103) in the NFFC ranks him as the 38th running back drafted in early May. I view Edmonds as a challenging player to time, but I also could see some of the top high-stakes drafters pricing him as a cheat RB2 due to his passing catching ability.
Gaskin went down a draft-day disappointment last season despite receiving 222 touches. He gained only 3.5 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per catch, pointing to a diminished role this season. However, Gaskin set a career-high in catches (49) and touchdowns (7), leading to the 25th ranking in fantasy points (174.70) in PPR formats.
Fantasy Outlook: His play in 2020 (972 combined yards with five touchdowns and 41 catches on 183 touches) gives Gaskin a chance at working as the Dolphins’ second back in 2022. He projects as a potential handcuff in Miami with no one fighting for him in the early draft season based on his ADP (190) in the NFFC.
Over his first three years in the NFL, Mostert gained only 36 yards on seven carries while bouncing between five different franchises. However, he flashed off the bench in 2018, highlighted by his 7.7 yards per rush.
In 2019, Mostert teased in Week 2 (151 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches), but his next bump in chances didn’t come until Week 13 (154 combined yards with a touchdown and two catches). Over his final eight games, including the playoffs, he gained 792 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and nine catches. He scored a touchdown in eight of his last nine contests with an impressive showing in the NFC Championship game (226 combined yards with four touchdowns and two catches).
Mostert battled knee and ankle injuries in 2020, leading to eight missed games. He finished with 677 combined yards with three touchdowns and 16 catches while averaging 5.0 yards per rush. His season started with an impact game (151 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches) with an explosive start to Week 2 (105 combined yards with one score and two catches) over 13 snaps. Last year he blew out his left knee on his second touch of the year, leading to surgery to repair a cartilage issue.
Fantasy Outlook: Mostert has ties to the Dolphins’ offensive coordinator, and he does offer big-play ability. Miami expects him to be ready for Week 1. However, at age 30, with two years of injuries, Mostert falls into a risk/reward player while being almost free on draft day (ADP of 173).
Other Options: Gerrid Doaks, Salvon Ahmed
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver production in Miami has ranked near the bottom of the league over the past two seasons. They only caught 51.7 percent of the Dolphins' completions last year while gaining only 10.7 yards per catch.
The addition of WR Tyreek Hill gives Miami the structure in the passing game to press for 3,000+ yards from their wide receivers, with growth in the left arm of Tua Tagovailoa.
Over the past five seasons with the Chiefs, over 75 games, Hill caught 418 passes with 6,489 yards and 53 touchdowns on 625 targets. He averaged 5.6 catches for 87 yards and 0.71 touchdowns per game, or 18.56 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Last year, Hill set a career-high in catches (111) and targets (159) while gaining the fewest yards per catch (11.2) since his rookie season (9.7). He scored a significant portion of his fantasy points (367.8 – including the playoffs) in six matchups (11/197/1, 11/186/3, 12/94/1, 7/83/2, 12/148/1, and 11/150/1).
The change to Miami does cloudy his 2022 fantasy value. In 2021, Jaylen Waddle worked as the Dolphins’ high volume receiver, but he did most of his damage close to the line of scrimmage. As a result, his success should almost be Hill’s floor in catches.
Fantasy Outlook: When reviewing the 2022 wide receiver inventory, Hill still grades as a top 10 player. He has an ADP of 16 in the early draft season in the NFFC as the sixth wideout selected. Therefore, I will set his bar at 105 catches for 1,200 yards with eight to 10 scores.
Over three seasons at Alabama, Waddle caught 106 passes 1,999 yards and 17 touchdowns. His best year came as a freshman (45/848/7). In 2020, he missed six games with an ankle injury. Waddle started last season with four dynamic games (8/134/2, 5/142/1, 6/120, and 6/161/1), which was his first opportunity to shine as a top-two receiver for the Crimson Tide. He returned 20 punts for 487 yards and a touchdown in his sophomore year, plus five kickoffs for 175 yards and a score.
I sense the traits of Antonio Brown with a lot less experience and opportunity in college. Waddle has strength in his lower body with the skill set to create a catching window all over the field.
In his first year with the Dolphins, Waddle worked as a high-volume possession receiver (104/1,015/6), leading to only 9.8 yards per catch. His catch rate (73.8) graded well while delivering eight games with seven catches or more. His highlight game (9/137/1) came in Week 12.
Fantasy Outlook: This season, Waddle won’t have a 50 % share of the Dolphins’ catches with Tyreek Hill added to the team. He’ll draw weaker coverage on more plays plus have the liberty of working deeper in his pass patterns. My starting points will be 90 catches for 1,100 yards with about seven touchdowns. His ADP (32) ranks him as the 10th wide receiver in the high-stake market in early May.
A couple of injuries to the Cowboys’ wide receivers led to Wilson becoming fantasy relevant in three games (7/104, 6/35/1, and 5/119/2). He had four targets or fewer in 10 of his 17 matchups. In his third year in the league, Wilson set career-highs in catches (45), receiving yards (602), and touchdowns (6).
Fantasy Outlook: Miami won’t have as many balls going in the direction of Wilson when adding in that they have two stud wideouts and active tight ends in the passing game. He is a clear upgrade in explosiveness and scoring ability.
Other Options: Lynn Bowden, Preston Williams, Trent Sherfield, Erik Ezukanma
Tight End
The Dolphins’ tight ends led the NFL in catches (122) and targets (173), but they managed only a pair of scores. They finished with 30.2 percent of Miami’s catches and almost a third of their receiving yards.
Last year I listed Gesicki as an upside TE2. He rewarded my beliefs with career-highs in catches (73), receiving yards (780), and targets (112), but Gesicki managed only a pair of scores. Despite his growth, he delivered two weeks with no fantasy catches with regression in his stats over his final 10 contests (36/353/0) on 61 targets. From Week 3 to Week 7, Gesicki offered starter value (34/386/2). In the end, he ranked ninth in fantasy scoring (165.00) in PPR formats.
Fantasy Outlook: Some of the tight end targets should shift back to the wide receiver position this season. In addition, Miami will also throw balls to their second and third tight ends. Gesicki ranks as the 12th tight end drafted in the NFFC with an ADP of 121. His ceiling is reasonable while expecting a rebound in scoring. Unfortunately, Gesicki tends to be a challenging ride due to his up-and-down opportunity from week to week.
Other Options: Hunter Long, Durham Smythe, Adam Shaheen, Cethan Carter
Kicker
Over his first four years in the NFL, Sanders made 100 of his 120 field goals (83.3 %) with success from 50 yards or more (14-for-21). In addition, he’s made 134 of his 137 extra points in his career. Last year, Miami scored 39 touchdowns while creating 31 field goal attempts.
Fantasy Outlook: Sanders has the leg to deliver plenty of long-range kicks. He has one top-ranking season on his resume. The progression of the Dolphins’ offense points to him being a possible value at kicker this season.
Defense
The Dolphins bumped to 14th in rushing yards allowed (1,867) with minimal gains in yards per carry (4.4). Offenses ran the ball 25 times a game against them with 13 runs over 20 yards.
Their pass defense allowed 16 fewer passing touchdowns (23) than in 2020 (39), with 14 interceptions and 48 sacks. Miami improved to 16th in pass defense (3,871 yards). Quarterbacks gained 6.6 yards per pass attempt 62 completions over 20 yards.
Miami has two stars in the secondary (S Jevon Holland and CB Xavien Howard) while relying on DE Emmanuel Ogbah to apply the pressure. LB Jaelan Phillips picked up 8.5 sacks in his rookie season, but he struggled against the run while missing too many tackles in his rookie season after getting drafted 18th overall. DE Christian Wilkins showed growth against the run while also setting a career-high in sacks (4.5) and tackles (89).
Last year the Dolphins had the third-best defense in their division, so they need to close the gap on Buffalo and New England to make the playoffs this season. With minimal help in this year’s draft and free agency, Miami needs its key player to improve in 2022.
2022 Fantasy Outlooks:
- AFC East
- Bills | Dolphins | Patriots | Jets
- AFC North
- Ravens | Bengals | Browns | Steelers
- AFC South
- Texans | Colts | Jaguars | Titans
- AFC West
- Broncos | Chiefs | Raiders | Chargers
- NFC East
- Cowboys | Giants | Eagles | Commanders
- NFC North
- Bears | Lions | Packers | Vikings
- NFC South
- Falcons | Panthers | Saints | Buccaneers
- NFC West
- Cardinals | Rams | 49ers | Seahawks
