Closing out the NFC Divisional playoff round, Seattle visits Green Bay on Sunday, Jan 12, 2020. As the NFC second seed, the Packers enjoyed a first-round bye while the Seahawks defeated the Eagles in Philadelphia during Wild Card action. This contest kicks off at 6:40 p.m. ET at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. This is a rematch of the 2015 NFC Championship game, which Seattle won 28-22 in overtime.
Spread: Packers -4 (-110) | Seahawks +4 (-110)
Moneyline: Packers (-215) | Seahawks (+185)
Game Total: OVER 47 (-110) | UNDER 47 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks’ Recent Form
Playing a second straight road game, Seattle rolls into Green Bay following a 17-9 Wild Card win over the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Seahawks knocked Carson Wentz (concussion) out of the game during the Eagles third drive which led to 40-year-old backup Josh McCown taking over. Seattle sent heavy pressure after that as McCown was sacked six times and was only able to lead the Eagles to three field goals.
Russell Wilson posted 325 passing yards with one TD, plus he led the Seahawks with 45 rushing yards. Rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf had a season-high 160 receiving yards and one TD. The victory was a nice rebound for Seattle, who previously lost a pair of home games 27-13 to Arizona in Week 16 and 26-21 to San Francisco in Week 17. Injuries adversely affected the Hawks in both of those losses.
· Betting Record: SU 12-5 | ATS 8-8-1 | O/U 8-8-1
· Offense: Ninth, scoring 25.3 points per game
· Defense: 22nd, allowing 24.9 points per game
· Turnover Rank: Tied third with a +12 differential
Green Bay Packers’ Recent Form
Finishing as the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff standings, the Packers kicked back and enjoyed a bye week during the opening round of the playoffs. Green Bay closed the regular season with five straight wins that included victories against NFC North division rivals during the last three games. The Packers defense was solid during the winning streak as Green Bay outscored it opponents by a 118-71 combine final margin.
Green Bay played it final two games on the road as the Packers defeated the Vikings 23-10 in Minnesota during Week 16 prior to struggling some during a 23-20 Week 17 win over the Lions in Detroit. During its last home game, back on December 15, 2019, Green Bay defeated the Bears 21-13 in Chicago in Week 15 action. Prior to the five-game win streak, the Packers were pounded 37-8 on the road in San Francisco.
· Betting Record: SU 13-3 | ATS 10-6-0 | O/U 6-10
· Offense: 15th, scoring 23.5 points per game
· Defense: Ninth, allowing 19.6 points per game
· Turnover Rank: Tied third with a +12 differential
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Seattle vs. Green Bay – Sixth Meeting Over Five Years
Meeting for the first time this season, Green Bay and Seattle have plenty of recent history as these teams have battled five times over the past five years. The Seahawks won the most recent contest 27-24 at home as 3-point chalk during Week 11 last season. Chris Carson (83/1) and Rashaad Penny (46/0) accounted for most of the Seahawks’ 173 rushing yards in that game but both players are out for the season with injuries.
Prior to that, the Packers won three straight at home 17-9 Week 1 in 2017, 38-10 during Week 11 in 2016 and 27-17 during Week 2 in 2015. Aaron Rodgers outdueled Russell Wilson in all three contests. Seattle and Green Bay also met in the 2015 NFC Conference Championship. The Seahawks erased a 16-0 halftime deficit, then held the Packers to a game-tying field goal in the final seconds before winning 28-22 in overtime.
Injury Update: Seattle is Making Due at Running Back
With Carson and Penny out, Seattle has now used the one-two punch of Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer two weeks in a row. Lynch (34/1) and Homer (62/0) posted a combined 96 rushing yards against the 49ers in Week 17. Lynch had 32 total yards and one TD while Homer had just 17 total yards last week against the stout Philadelphia run defense.
Green Bay allowed 120.1 rush yards per game so this is a softer spot.
Seattle continues to be a walking wounded squad as five players missed practice and another five only had a limited practice on Wednesday. LG Mike Iupati (neck), LT Duane Brown (knee) and C Joey Hunt (fibula) were the most notable of the DNP players. DE Ziggy Ansah and DE Jadeveon Clowney (core) were limited but are expected to play. Green Bay enters this game as one of the healthier playoff teams.
What to Expect When the Seahawks Have the Ball
Russell Wilson will once again be asked to carry the Seahawks with his arm and scrambling ability. Wilson was third with 31 TD passes behind Lamar Jackson (36) and Jameis Winston (33) and added another three rushing scores this season. Receivers Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf will need to run quick routes as the Seahawks’ offensive line is riddled with injuries and won’t provide Wilson with much protection.
What to Expect When the Packers Have the Ball
Green Bay was quick out of the gate this season, as the Packers owned a 108-56 first-quarter scoring advantage. The Packers slowed down in second quarter getting outscored by a 116-83 margin. Green Bay won the third quarter 101-64 and the final frame by an 84-77 margin. Aaron Jones tied Christian McCaffrey with 19 TDs this season and he will be a huge factor against the Seahawks’ middle-of-the-pack run defense.
Green Bay vs. Seattle Final Thoughts and Pick
Last week I wondered how much longer Philadelphia would last playing in a “next man up” scenario. That question shifts to Seattle and all the injuries they are dealing with this week. The Seahawks’ patchwork offensive line will have its hands full against linebackers Za'Darius Smith (13.5) and Preston Smith (12), who racked up 25.5 of the Packers’ 41 sacks. Wilson was sacked 48 times, though he has stayed clean with just one sack in each of the last two games.
It’s difficult to win in the NFL without a strong ground game and the Seahawks are sorely lacking in that dynamic. In addition to making it difficult to control the clock, the passing game also suffers. Unless Lynch and Homer can show they have some run, the Packers will be able to concentrate on shutting the Seahawks receivers and making life miserable for Wilson. While the Seahawks were road warriors this season, lay the line and bet on Green Bay.
Pick: Packers -4
Playoff Record: 3-1
Season Record: 41-57-2