NHL Best Bets (Feb 20): Lightning to Dominate Golden Knights

These are your NHL Best Bets from SI Gambling for February 20, 2020.

Eight games are on the NHL schedule tonight. It’s a lighter slate than we’re used to, but there are a couple premier matchups. The Penguins and Maple Leafs meet for the second time in three days after a convincing 5-2 win by the Penguins in Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Also of note, the Lightning put their 11-game winning streak on the line as they travel to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights.

There's plenty to wager on, but let's take a closer look at two games in particular. Here are my two best bets for Thursday:

Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals: Over 6 goals (-115)

Tonight’s the night. This is the night star winger Alex Ovechkin gets goal No. 700. He’s been “stuck” on 698 for a handful of games after scoring a hat trick on February 4 against the Kings. But he’s at home, facing a team he’s very familiar with and he’ll finally get the monkey off his back.

Ovechkin scored a goal against Habs goaltender Carey Price earlier this season in the only game he played against Montreal and has 32 goals in 49 career games against the Canadiens. He has more goals per game (.653) against Montreal than his career average against all opponents (.611). Maybe he’ll get one by Price and one in the empty net to get to the milestone.

Washington and Montreal have played twice this season, with game totals of seven and six goals, respectively, in the two meetings. The Canadiens have allowed at least four goals in each of their last four games. Capitals goaltender Ilya Samsonov has allowed an average of four goals per game in his last three starts. Both teams are looking to bust out of slumps. If this game looks anything like the other two, plenty of goals will be scored en route to one of these teams getting back on track.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Vegas Golden Knights: Lightning O3 goals (-120)

The Lightning are an absolute juggernaut right now. They’ve won 11 in a row and are 23-2-1 dating back to the final game before the Christmas break. Finding any value on Tampa Bay is becoming more and more difficult, but if you dig deep enough there is a strong play for Thursday.

Tampa Bay is averaging a league-best 3.55 goals per game this season. The Lightning are also a Top 10 road scoring team, averaging 3.10 goals per game away from Amalie Arena. I expect both of those trends to hold when the Lightning face off against the Golden Knights.

If you would have taken over three total goals for the Lightning during their recent 11-game run, your record would be 6-2-3. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.5 goals per game during their winning streak, which includes a 4-2 victory over Vegas on February 4. With Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov healthy and in the lineup, I expect nothing but goals from this Tampa Bay team. Plus, you’ve got some push insurance with a whole number as the total.

Season Record: 33-32-1 (-.87 units)

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