Las Vegas residents are fired up for the Raiders’ inaugural season playing at Allegiant Stadium in the heart of the strip. At the heart of the Silver and Black’s offense is running back Josh Jacobs.
Jacobs had a solid rookie season in 2019; finishing eighth in the NFL with 1,150 rushing yards, despite missing three games due to injury (shoulder). The former Alabama standout had the second-most fantasy points amongst all rookie RBs (behind Miles Sanders) and heading into 2020, the Raiders offense has potential to explode with emerging tight end Darren Waller and first round draft pick Henry Ruggs III.
What Are the Oddsmakers Saying?
The Westgate Superbook Las Vegas recently released Jacob’s total rushing yards prop at 1,149.5 yards.
In his first year, Jacobs ran the ball 242 times, averaging 4.75 yards/carry. He also hauled in 20 receptions for 166 yards. While impressive on the ground in 2019, Jacobs ranked just 49th and 50th respectively amongst all RBs in receptions and receiving yardage. Much of that had to do with seeing only 27 targets in 13 games. Jacobs finished as the overall RB20 in PPR formats after finishing with 191.6 fantasy points strengthened with seven rushing touchdowns.
Jacobs’ 15th highest PPR average (14.7) amongst all RBs with at least 100 carries, makes him an appealing option for fantasy owners in 2020. He could take an even higher leap if he is able to stay healthy and play a full 16-game season.
Jacobs should be targeted as a high-end RB2 who has RB1 upside if Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden can find a way to involve the dynamic rusher more in the passing game.
Jacobs is projected to be featured in the red zone again in 2020 after ranking in the top five for red-zone touches per game last season. Success in this area will lead to increased volume, and ‘bellcow’ backs, compared to committee backs, are players bettors should look to target when looking to play the over on sportsbook projections.
In order for Jacobs to surpass the number posted by the oddsmakers, he would only need to average 71.8 yards per game over a full 16-game season. With the projected number being the same as his rookie campaign, my model indicates over 1,200 rushing yards in 2020. My projections have the talented running back avoiding the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’ and easily surpassing this number.
The Play: OVER 1,149.5 rushing yards (-110)
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