MLB Betting: NL East Win Total Breakdown
It may be the middle of July, but Opening Day is rapidly approaching for the 2020 season!
With the start of the Major League campaign now just two weeks away, we at SI Gambling are going through some of the most popular odds available at several different sportsbooks across the country within the MLB futures market.
Earlier this month, we put together our favorite World Series longshots and favorites breakdowns. Last week, we began going division-by-division to break down the projected win totals for the American League East, as well as the AL Central and AL West.
Today we’ll turn our attention to the National League East win total with the odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
National League East Win Totals
Atlanta Braves: OVER 35.5 wins
There may not be a more complete team in the National League East than the Atlanta Braves.
Even with Nick Markasis’s decision to opt-out, and Freddie Freeman’s early July COVID-19 diagnosis, they still have the best fantasy producer in baseball in Ronald Acuña Jr. leading off at the top of the lineup. SI Fantasy analyst Shawn Childs wrote that the Braves outfielder is his number one pick for fantasy this season.
“Acuña is an obviously explosive player with room for growth in batting average assuming he makes better contact and gets his strikeout rate under control. You should be looking to buy his edge in runs with the high floor in power and speed. Acuña will be drafted as the top hitter in 2020 and should be the first pick in the majority of drafts despite the concerns and up-and-down performance of his batting average.”
The Braves signed Yonder Alonso as a non-roster invitee in the event that Freeman won’t be available at the beginning of the season, but there’s plenty of talent 1-9 in the lineup.
As for their pitching, Mike Soroka and Max Fried remain two of the best young pitchers in baseball, and they added longtime veteran Cole Hamels to the mix with Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb and 2017 first-rounder Kyle Wright.
If Atlanta can just stay healthy and virus-free, this team is the class of the National League East.
Washington Nationals: UNDER 33.5 wins
I have my suspicions about the Nationals for 2020. It has little to do with the actual talent on the roster. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin make up a very talented (and very well-paid) top of the rotation.
Last season, the Nationals ranked second amongst starting pitching in ERA, fourth in WHIP, fourth in strikeouts/nine and fourth in hits/nine. With all the innings piled on from the postseason, even in a shortened campaign, I wonder just how much motivation a recent World Series winner has in this crazy year. I pointed out in a recent “Draft or Pass” column on Strasburg that after his career-high 215 IP and 34 starts in 2014, he has only averaged 145 IP and 24.25 starts per season.
Nobody has gone back to the World Series in back-to-back years since the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008-2009, and no team has repeated as World Series champions since the Yankees from 1998-2000.
Even with Daniel Hudson and Sean Doolittle, their bullpen remains a concern after finishing 29th in ERA, 27th in WHIP, and 28th in H/9 a season ago.
As for the lineup, Trea Turner and Juan Soto still remain two of the top producers in the game, but the loss of Anthony Rendon to the Angels will be difficult to overcome after he led baseball in RBI a season ago. Factor that with Ryan Zimmerman, the longest-tenured Nationals player, deciding to opt-out and it just doesn’t feel like the Nationals’ year.
New York Mets: OVER 32.5 wins
The Mets were dealt a couple of rough hands this offseason. After hiring longtime Mets outfielder Carlos Beltran as their new manager, they immediately had to distance themselves from Beltran after he had been named in the Astros cheating scandal in 2017. Luis Rojas is now set to take over a team that lost Noah Syndergaard to Tommy John surgery and will be asking for another big year out of their young core.
Their pitching is led by two-time back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom; the modern-day example for why pitcher wins in baseball doesn’t matter (21 in two years). They signed veteran right-handers Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to go along with Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. The Mets’ rotation finished top 8 in every major statistical category a season ago, notably ERA (7), WHIP (7) and strikeouts/nine (8).
Their lineup with the exception of Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos is young with a lot of budding talent. Pete Alonso won the NL Rookie of the Year after slugging 53 home runs a season ago. Jeff McNeil hit .318 with an OPS of .916 (second-best on the team), and we still can expect to see more from up-and-comers in Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, and Amed Rosario.
The bullpen is the key to this over-under. I’m banking on Edwin Diaz turning himself around after a disastrous season last year. In 2019, he finished with the highest WHIP and walk rate of his career. With no injuries and still plenty of life on his fastball, the wipeout slider still plays. Diaz with Dellin Betances behind him still makes for a very formidable combination late in games.
Philadelphia Phillies: OVER 31.5 wins
Of all the teams I feel most secure picking in the NL East, the Phillies might hold the most conviction for me.
There’s plenty of talent in the lineup with Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura leading the way for Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto, it’s Harper that’s the linchpin for the offense.
Back in June, I discussed Harper’s projected fantasy impact for 2020 and how he’s an ideal candidate to bounce back in his second season in Philadelphia.
“Harper improved his HR total, drove-in 14 more RBI in two fewer games than a season ago, and did this without much at the top of the lineup after Andrew McCutchen got hurt, as well as a down season from first baseman Rhys Hoskins. With both back in the lineup, Harper should continue to see more pitches, draw more walks, keep driving the ball, and build up his wRC+ back towards his career mark of 138 (after just 125 last year).”
On the pitching side, a smaller 60-game season should benefit veteran starting rotations due to not burning out and fatiguing over the course of 162 games. Veteran pitchers like Jake Arrieta and newcomer Zack Wheeler, who have both dealt with injuries the last few seasons should be well-rested and impactful arms in the rotation behind ace Aaron Nola.
The Phillies as a team had a lot go wrong last year, but I expect positive regression to the mean and look for them to be contenders with the Mets and Braves for the NL East.
Miami Marlins: UNDER 24.5 wins
There are a few bright spots for the Marlins heading into the 2020 season.
Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith proved to be young, stable pieces in their rotation for the next few years, with Alcantara racking up just under 200 innings a season ago.
Jonathan Villar comes over from the Orioles after filling up the stat sheet in both home runs and stolen bases last season and should help provide a bit of stability with him and Brian Anderson atop the lineup.
But after that? There’s not much to like. The Marlins are still in the midst of a long rebuild and won’t be ready to contend for the next several years. They have the second-lowest projected winning percentage for the 60-game season according to FanGraphs and are already playing in a very difficult and competitive division.
The Marlins won’t have the worst record in baseball, as that likely belongs to the Orioles; however, this is not the team or season to lean on the projected over in win totals.
