NFL Week 3 - Best Bets From the SI Gambling Team

The SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at SI's MMQB weigh in on their top best bet against the spread for Week 3 in the NFL.
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Over the course of this year's 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We'll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. So far, our group has gone 17-8-0 ATS!

For the third straight week, our SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo's information was spot-on for Thursday's matchup between the Dolphins and Jaguars. SI Fantasy PRO members received the Dolphins +3 pick Wednesday afternoon as the public continued to back Jacksonville at home.

In 2020, the "Vegas Whispers" NFL betting plays have gone 15-5-0 ATS as well as 5-0 on Thursday Night Football dating back to last season.

Before checking out the team's selections and "best bets," here are the latest Week 4 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.

NFL Best Bets for Week 3

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

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Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans (-3) | TOTAL: 52.5

Much like the public overreacted to Tom Brady's rough start (coincidentally in New Orleans), everyone is ready to put Brees on the bench in favor of some various combination of Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston.

While Brees seemed to be out of sorts on his timing, I'll put more of the "pie chart of blame" on not having the best wide receiver in the game, as well as losing time of possession by almost 13 minutes to a Raiders team that executed their gameplan to perfection.

The Packers offense has looked terrific, but step back and think about who they've played. In Week 1, they faced a Minnesota Vikings secondary that lost most of their starting corners and safeties from a season ago, and the Detroit Lions who let Mitchell Trubisky throw three touchdowns on them in the 4th quarter to blow a late lead. The Saints present a much more difficult matchup for Green Bay, and if Davante Adams is unable to play, the line will start climbing back in favor of New Orleans. This opened all the way at Saints -6 and moved three points towards the Packers. I think this is the lowest number you'll see the Saints at this week, so jump on this before it starts heading in the "right direction."

BEST BET: Saints -3

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-11) | TOTAL: 44

The biggest ‘chalk / square’ play on the board as the Colts are the only double-digit favorite in Week 3. There is no real need to explain this. I have been riding the “Fade Gase” train the first two weeks and I am not getting off even at the inflated number. If Indianapolis can beat the Vikings by 17, they can handle the dysfunctional inept 2020 Jets an even greater amount.

The Jets defense has surrendered 140 rushing yards per game through the first two games and now they will face arguably one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. The great “offensive mind” (per Christoper Johnson) of Adam Gase has the Jets ranked 32nd in total offense with 531 yards through two games. Lay the wood and watch an easy two touchdown-plus Colts victory.

BEST BET: Colts -11

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7.5) | TOTAL: 45

The D.C. Football team is coming off a bad road loss vs the Arizona Cardinals, while the Browns scored a 35-30 victory over the Bengals. 

The Washington Football team is not ready for primetime yet but that defensive line can create all kinds of problems for Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns. Plus, do you really think it would be smart to lay 7.5 points with the Browns?

BEST BET: Washington Football Team +7.5

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

San Francisco 49ers at New YorkGiants (+4) | TOTAL: 41.5

The 49ers are a mess of injuries right now, as their top quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end are all out or highly questionable. Their defense has also taken a beating due to injuries, and coach Kyle Shanahan could play it safe with some of his players due to questions about the turf at MetLife Stadium. The Giants have their share of injuries too, most notably Saquon Barkley, but they’re not nearly as bad off as the Niners and they’re a home dog. The sharps seem to be siding with the G-Men in a potential letdown game for San Francisco, and I agree. Take Big Blue plus the four points against these banged-up Niners in a likely low-scoring contest in New Jersey.

BEST BET: Giants +4

Dr. Roto (@DrRoto)

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | TOTAL: 47.5

After watching last week’s second half meltdown against Dallas, it almost pains me to recommend laying points with Atlanta. However, one of my major betting axioms is to have a short memory when it comes to how teams played the week before. I am banking on Atlanta’s defensive line shutting down Bears RB David Montgomery and when that happens (notice I said when and not if), it will put the ball in the (in)capable hands of Bears QB Mitch Trubisky. Trubisky has been solid two weeks in a row, but are you willing to bet on three? I know I’m not and I think Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn needs this win to save his job.

BEST BET: Falcons -3

Bill Enright (@BillEnright)

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7) | TOTAL: 4.5

The Browns are coming off a mini-bye week after their Week 2 victory on Thursday night while Washington is flying back east after a double digit loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. With the Browns impressive rushing attack and newly found play-action deep passes, Cleveland should roll past Washington at home.

BEST BET: Browns -7

Roy Larking (@SIGambling)

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-5.5) | TOTAL: 47

Cam Newton and the Patriots (1-1) return home following a 35-30 loss in Seattle. David Carr and the Raiders (2-0) are on the road after opening Allegiant Stadium with a 34-24 win over New Orleans. As is the case across the NFL – both teams have a laundry list of questionable players. It’s concerning for Las Vegas that RB Josh Jacobs (hip) and TE Darren Waller (knee) both missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. The Raiders are also dealing with key injuries along the offensive line and stud MLB Nick Kwiatkoski is doubtful.

Wide receivers Julian Edelman (knee) and N’Keal Harry (ankle) plus center David Andrews (hand) are the primary concerns for the Patriots. Newton has regained his form with New England and he is the Patriots leading rusher with 122 yards and 4 TD. In addition to injuries, the Raiders are in a tough spot here as they travelled west to east and have an early start on short rest. DraftKings Sportsbook is giving the undefeated Las Vegas respect with a short point spread. The New England defense tips the scale on this play.

BEST BET: Patriots -5.5

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | TOTAL: 47.5

There are only two games this weekend which feature two teams who have started off the season 2-0. In this case the L.A. Rams are forced to travel across the country for the second week in a row as they were not permitted to stay east following their road win over the Eagles last week. The extra travel, along with facing a strong Buffalo defense should prove to be too much in the end for the Rams to burn me two weeks in a row. Take the home Bills, who are the better team and have a hot Josh Allen at Quarterback right now.

BEST BET: Bills -2.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | TOTAL: 47.5

The Atlanta Falcons have started strong at 2-0 while the Chicago Bears have really struggled to an 0-2 start.

Sounds believable, right?

It's exactly how I feel but those records are reversed. I think Atlanta scores 30-plus points in this game and the only way Chicago covers is if they get a defensive or special teams touchdown.

If I compare teams position by position, little to no chance the Falcons don't get a win and cover this game! Bet the Falcons and take your ticket to the window.

BEST BET: Falcons -3

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) | TOTAL: 55.5

This is one of those weeks where I think we’ll look back and realize we didn’t know just how good this Cardinal team really is. The Lions can’t stop anybody on the ground having given up over 200 yards per game so far and the Cardinals feature both the 9th (Murray) and 14th (Drake) most rushing yard leaders in the league. Add to this how terrible the Lions have been away from home (0-6 ATS) in their last six road games, I think the Cardinals should easily cover the spread here.

BEST BET: Cardinals -5.5

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-3) | TOTAL: 45

Maybe i'll become an honorary member of the Bills mafia if they leave Sunday 3-0. One of the bigger matchups on Sunday, both squads are coming in perfect SU and ATS through the first two weeks. The Rams head into Buffalo coming off back to back wins as underdogs against the Cowboys and Eagles, with a decent shot to make it three in a row. The Bills had a much easier first two weeks as they were matched up against the Jets and Dolphins, yet defensively looked lackluster, even giving up over 400 yards to the Dolphins. 

There's no question this will be the best team the Bills have faced this season, and the Rams have a history of performing on the road. In their last 18 road games, the Rams have a 12-6 record ATS, including 4-0 ATS in their last 4, and 7-0-2 in their last 9 after scoring more than 30 in their previous game. The Bills on the other hand are just 2-4 SU and ATS the last two years after winning two straight. Josh Allen is on fire out of the shoots leading the NFL with 729 passing yards, but I expect the Rams to take him down a notch. The Rams allow just 6.2 yards per attempt (third best) and a 73 opponents' passer rating (second best).

BEST BET: Rams +3 (has moved to +2.5)

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2.5) | TOTAL: 47.5

Since the start of the 2018 season, the Bills have played in nine games in which the total was 43 or higher and the under hit in all nine. If we want to get into the Xs and Os of this matchup, Buffalo plays quarters coverage as well as any team in football, and Cover-4 has been Jared Goff's Achilles heel. 

On top of that, the Bills will likely get their top two linebackers (Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano) are back in the lineup after missing last week, and they have two weeks of the Rams' new-ish misdirection-heavy offense to study. They should force LA's offense that is already dink-and-dunk to scratch and claw for everything they get. On the other side of the ball, while Josh Allen hype is reaching a fevered pitch, keep in mind that to open the season he got to pick on the Jets' secondary and the Dolphins minus Byron Jones (Allen didn't start attacking downfield until Jones went down last week). Jalen Ramsey is likely to shadow Stefon Diggs and Aaron Donald should provide the kind of heat Allen hasn't seen since the second half of last January's playoff loss. Allen always presents a risk of turnovers and therefore short fields (and quick scores) for an opponent, expect the Bills to dial things back a bit in Week 3.

BEST BET: Under 47.5

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5) | TOTAL: 55.5

It’s kind of funny to remember that these two teams tied in Week 1 last season. If we consider that they were perfectly evenly matched at that point (not exactly how these things work, but just go with it) then it’s a little dramatic to consider how far each franchise has gone in opposite directions since. I know some people were high on Year 3 of Matt Patricia’s Lions, and still may be even now, but I am not one of those people. And the Cardinals look to be fulfilling their destiny as the annual second-year-QB breakout team. They’re going to beat the Lions, Panthers and Jets and be 5–0 going into their Monday night game against Dallas. Exciting stuff! But truly, this just struck me as a line they got wrong. I was surprised Arizona was only favored by 5.5 at home, and I’ll happily lay the points.

BEST BET: Cardinals -5.5

Want more NFL picks? Check out the MMQB Team's Week 3 picks for every game!

Who are SI's College Football experts and insiders picking to win this week?

NAMEWEEK 3 PICKRECORD

Ben Heisler

Saints -3

1-1

Frankie Taddeo

Colts -11

2-0

Corey Parson

Washington FB Team +7.5

0-1

Michael Fabiano

Giants +4

1-1

Dr. Roto

Falcons -3

2-0

Bill Enright

Browns -7

0-2

Roy Larking

Patriots -5.5

2-0

Steve Renner

Bills -2.5

0-2

Ian Ritchie

Falcons -3

2-0

Scott Atkins

Cardinals -5.5

2-0

Casey Olson

Rams +3

2-0

Gary Gramling

LAR @ BUF U47.5

1-1

Mitch Goldich

Cardinals -5.5

2-0

LAST WEEK'S RECORD (ATS): 7-5-0

COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 17-8-0