2026 WM Phoenix Open Betting Models, Picks: Will the Party Continue for Scottie Scheffler?

The world No. 1 is looking for a third win at TPC Scottsdale but our expert has an eye on some other players coming to town in form.

Scottie Scheffler gestures to the crowd after his final putt on 18 of the Pete Dye Stadium Course to win The American Express in La Quinta, Calif., Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026. Scheffler finished the final round six strokes under for a total score of -27. | Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Scottie Scheffler is in the field this week for the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, so we should probably all just pack it in and not even bother playing this tournament, right? It certainly feels that way, but this is The People’s Open, so we absolutely have to dive into the goods once again and see if anyone can challenge Scheffler this week—and we may have some players who are up to the task in the desert. 

TPC Scottsdale, actually located right outside of Phoenix, is a par-71 Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish design that measures 7,266 yards. It opened in 1986 and began hosting the Phoenix Open the year after, and has every year since on the PGA Tour. While it’s a fun golf course that almost always delivers an entertaining tournament, it’s better known for the adopted party-like atmosphere that has expanded largely beyond just the stadium-seated 16th hole. 

As far as the golf goes, though, it’s another course that puts a demand on approach play, but the short game will have to be along for the ride as well, and the desert, water-lined terrain demands some level of skill showed off the tee. With that, let’s dive into the numbers and model for this week at the WM Phoenix Open before we hand out a trio of picks. 

Key Stats for TPC Scottsdale

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

In case you haven’t figured it out, strokes-gained approach is always going to be a priority, but it’s even more crucial at TPC Scottsdale. This is a ball-striker’s golf course, so how players have been coming into greens recently is top of mind in building out the model. 

1. Si Woo Kim (1.625)
2. Austin Smotherman (1.527)
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (0.926)
4. Eric Cole (0.891)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (0.882)

Scrambling rate

Having said that about approach play, players can still either stay afloat or rebound even find themselves in position to score if they scramble around some tight greens that have plenty of sand and hazards as well. 

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Rickie Fowler
3. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
4. Ben Griffin
5. Rasmus Hojgaard

Strokes-gained (course history) at TPC Scottsdale

Because this event offers a test that we can simply diagnose, I’m valuing course history at TPC Scottsdale even more so than I would in other weeks. If you’ve played well here before, a horse for the course can be valuable. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (2.591)
2. Xander Schauffele (2.292)
3. Rasmus Hojgaard (2.163)
4. Brooks Koepka (2.072)
5. Hideki Matsuyama (2.040)

Birdie-or-better gained percentage over the last 24 rounds

It took until just a couple of years ago to see someone break the 20-under-par mark as the winning score — but now it’s happened the past two years. Players are scoring at remarkable rates right now in the modern game, so we need to find the guys who haven’t had issues putting circles on the scorecard. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (1.900)
2. Garrick Higgo (1.668)
3. Si Woo Kim (1.349)
4. Matthew McCarty (1.087)
5. Ben Griffin (1.071)

WM Phoenix Open model rankings this week

This week’s model factors in a lot to try and find us a winner at TPC Scottsdale, but we start with a heavy emphasis on strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds (20%). We then look at scrambling (15%) with the second-heaviest weight, before looking at birdie-or-better gained percentage (10%) and stroke-gained off-the-tee in the last 24 rounds (10%), as well as course history at TPC Scottsdale (10%). We round it out with some smaller weights with strokes-gained par-4 in the last 24 rounds (8%), strokes-gained putting in the last 24 rounds (7%), strokes-gained total in the last 24 rounds (5%), good drive percentage (5%), and history at comp courses TPC Sawgrass and TPC Summerlin (5% each). With all of those numbers being crunched, here’s a look at the top 10 players in our model.

1. Scottie Scheffler
2. Si Woo Kim
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Rickie Fowler
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
6. Ben Griffin
7. Xander Schauffele
8. Cameron Young
9. Garrick Higgo
10. Viktor Hovland

2026 WM Phoenix Open picks

Si Woo Kim +2700 (DraftKings)

There’s good reason to believe that the torrid start that we’ve witnessed from Si Woo Kim in 2026 is going to continue in Phoenix this week. He’s not finished worse than T11 in his three starts so far this season, and he’s been doing it with elite ball-striking and with the putter not even fully cooperating. 

Kim leads the field in strokes-gained approach—yes, even better than Scottie—over the last 24 rounds, and is top 5 in strokes-gained off-the-tee as well. Furthermore, his once-awful history in this event has drastically improved over the last few years, registering a string of top 25 finishes over that span, and that’s while he’s not been striking the ball at the elite level that he currently is. Oh yeah, his scrambling has also been top 20 in the field as well. 

You can never fully predict when Si Woo is going to spontaneously combust, but he’s playing truly beautifully right now. More importantly, he’s playing in a way where he could contend with even Scheffler this week to take the crown as the People’s Champ. 

Viktor Hovland +3700 (DraftKings)

This will be the first time that we’ve seen Viktor Hovland on the PGA Tour this season, but he’s been showing some remarkably good ball-striking in three starts across the pond. When you combine that with the fact that he ended his 2025 season on a promising run, it seems like we could be in line for a big year for the Norwegian. 

Hovland has gained more than six strokes from tee-to-green in each of his three starts thus far in 2026, which continues the trend that we saw at the end of last year. The putter has gone shockingly cold, but his around-the-green play has shown some improvement as well. He’s also the right combination of a good driver with aggressive ball-striking that can win in Phoenix. 

Obviously, the risk is inherent when backing a player who is making his debut stateside in a given week, but when it comes to Hovland, I like his odds given the caliber of player we know he can be when he’s striking the ball as well as he currently is. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000 (Bet365)

Admittedly, it’s hard to feel fully confident in Christiaan Bezuidenhout’s ability to win on the PGA Tour considering that’s not something he’s done before in his career. At the same time, he’s trending in a manner that suggests that he could at least contend to change that this week, especially after improving at the WM Phoenix Open for the second straight year with a T4 finish in 2025. 

The numbers under the hood with Bez look far more favorable with a top-40 and top-30 finish in his last two starts to begin the 2026 season. Most favorably, he’s third in both strokes-gained approach and scrambling over the last 24 rounds, and is top 20 in strokes-gained putting on top of that. If that type of play continues in that same manner, he should have a plethora of opportunities to score this week, put low numbers on the board and ultimately climb up the leaderboard. 

Again, the lack of winning pedigree is a concern, but at 100/1, he’s playing far too well for the odds to be that long.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.