Alexandria vs. Hamilton: Alabama High School Football Playoff Preview, Prediction

Is the third time really the charm?

The Hamilton Aggies certainly hope so.

We'll know soon enough as the Aggies travel to Lou Scales Stadium, better known as Death Valley, to take on Alexandria in the opening round of the Alabama Class 4A high school football playoffs. Kickoff is slated for 7 p.m. ET.

In their two previous postseason trips to Alexandria, things didn't go so well for the Aggies.

In the second round of the 2003 playoffs, Hamilton was eliminated after falling to Alexandria 49-35. A year later, it was even worse, as the Valley Cubs rolled to a 43-14 victory in the third round.

Now, more than two decades later, Hamilton hopes the third time will finally prove to be the charm.

Not long ago, these two programs were languishing near the bottom of the Class 4A standings following 1-9 seasons.

Alexandria, once the standard in Class 4A, had lost its swagger. The Valley Cubs were no longer the bully on the block. With a roster full of freshmen and sophomores, Alexandria had bottomed out.

Hamilton, meanwhile, was facing a rebuild under a new coaching staff.

Friday night, the two teams meet at Alexandria's Lou Scales Stadium with a combined record of 17-3 and two of the most explosive offenses in Class 4A.

For Alexandria, those freshmen and sophomores are now juniors and seniors. They're grizzled, battle-tested veterans fully capable of competing for a state championship.

For Hamilton, those growing pains are now a distant memory.

This is what November football is supposed to look like.

How They Got Here

Alexandria Valley Cubs (9-1, 5-1)

Class 4A, Region 6 runner-up

On the heels of a 10-2 season and a second-round playoff appearance in 2025, Alexandria entered 2026 with high expectations.

The Valley Cubs won six of their first seven games by double digits.

Alexandria began the season ranked No. 5 in the Alabama Sports Writers Association's Class 4A poll, climbing as high as No. 2 before a late-season loss to Leeds.

That Week 8 setback was significant, costing Alexandria a shot at its first region championship since 2021.

The Valley Cubs responded emphatically, closing out the regular season with double-digit victories over Jacksonville and Handley to finish 9-1 for the second straight year.

Hamilton Aggies (8-2, 5-2)

Third place, Class 4A, Region 7

Hamilton entered 2026 coming off an 11-1 season and a region championship.

This time, the Aggies were chasing consecutive region titles for the first time since 2008-09.

Hamilton raced to a 2-0 start with identical 49-8 victories over Sulligent and Ardmore before suffering a heartbreaking 35-33 loss to Deshler.

The Aggies answered with four straight wins by an average margin of 33.5 points.

Then came West Morgan.

A Week 8 loss to the Rebels derailed Hamilton's hopes of repeating as region champion, ultimately leaving the Aggies third in Class 4A, Region 7, behind Deshler and West Morgan.

Hamilton responded by knocking off Lawrence County 49-12 in Week 9 before destroying Haleyville 72-20 last week to cap an impressive regular season.

Players to Watch

Alexandria Valley Cubs

J.J. Beason — Senior running back

Beason is coming off a 203-yard, two-touchdown performance against Handley last week.

He also scored four touchdowns against Central of Clay County this season and piled up 296 yards and four scores in a home playoff game against Fayette County last November.

When Alexandria needs to shorten a game, Beason is the man to do it.

Cole Wheeler — Senior quarterback

A three-year starter, Wheeler directs a Valley Cubs offense averaging nearly 40 points per game.

Jonathan Santos — Senior athlete

The second punch in Alexandria's backfield, Santos piled up 121 yards and two touchdowns in last week's 49-14 victory over Handley.

Royce Trantham — Junior tight end/defensive end

At 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, Trantham is one of the more physical players you'll see at the Class 4A level.

Evan White — Senior wide receiver/defensive back

A dynamic playmaker capable of making an impact on both sides of the ball, White could present serious matchup problems for Hamilton's secondary.

Hamilton Aggies

Mason Holloway — Senior quarterback

One of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in Class 4A, Holloway is equally dangerous through the air and on the ground.

As a passer, Holloway threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns against West Morgan. Against Priceville, he completed 76.5% of his passes for 245 yards and two scores.

But his legs can be just as dangerous.

Holloway rushed for 88 yards and a touchdown against Priceville. Against Lawrence County, he ran for 85 yards and two scores on just five carries while adding two more touchdowns through the air.

Hayden Lynch — Junior wide receiver/defensive back

One of Hamilton's top defenders, Lynch averages 4.6 tackles per game and has recorded four sacks and seven quarterback hurries this season.

Camden Robinson — Junior tight end/linebacker

A disruptive presence on defense, Robinson averages 12.4 tackles per game and has recorded 8.5 sacks, 28 quarterback hurries and four forced fumbles.

Christian Shipp — Senior wide receiver

A legitimate No. 2 receiving option, Shipp averages 43.1 receiving yards per game and has caught four touchdown passes this season.

Houston Tibbs — Senior wide receiver

Holloway's top target and a big-play threat, Tibbs recorded 185 receiving yards and three touchdowns against West Morgan alone.

Jet Weghorst — Junior running back

Weghorst leads Hamilton's rushing attack with 403 yards and eight touchdowns on 73 carries. He has also caught 14 passes for 138 yards and another score.

Keys to the Game

What Alexandria Must Do to Win

1. Ground and Pound

Despite averaging 37.2 points per game, Alexandria doesn't need to turn this into a track meet.

In Hamilton's two losses, Deshler rushed for 216 yards, while West Morgan gashed the Aggies' defense for 330.

That plays perfectly into Alexandria's hands.

With J.J. Beason and Jonathan Santos, the Valley Cubs boast one of the top backfields in Class 4A.

Run the ball. Control the clock. Keep Mason Holloway and Hamilton's explosive offense on the sideline.

On Friday night in Death Valley, Alexandria's best defense could be its offense.

2. Death Valley

The Valley Cubs are 6-0 at home this season and have won 10 straight at Lou Scales Stadium dating back to last year.

Alexandria hasn't lost a first-round home playoff game since St. Clair County claimed a 44-28 victory in 2012.

Since then, the Valley Cubs have won five consecutive first-round home playoff games.

Alexandria is 18-2 in such games since 1991.

They call it Death Valley for a reason.

What Hamilton Must Do to Win

1. Holloway Holds the Keys

A three-sport star at Hamilton, senior quarterback Mason Holloway has the ability to make plays with his arm and his legs.

The Aggies need him to keep Alexandria's defense guessing.

The Valley Cubs must respect Holloway's ability to run, but they can ill afford to let him settle into a rhythm in the pocket.

If Holloway gets comfortable, he can make them pay.

2. Camden Robinson vs. Alexandria's Ground-and-Pound Attack

Robinson anchors a Hamilton defense that has allowed 18.1 points per game this season.

At 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, Robinson is a two-way player who contributes at tight end and linebacker. But Friday night, his most important work could come on defense.

Against Alexandria's powerful backfield, Hamilton needs Robinson to win at the point of attack, fill running lanes and prevent Beason and Santos from consistently reaching the second level.

Getting Alexandria behind the chains, especially on early downs, could help keep the Valley Cubs from controlling the clock.

Robinson is one of the best individual defenders Alexandria has faced all season. His ability to disrupt the running game could be critical to Hamilton's chances.

The Coaches

Todd Ginn — Alexandria

Career record: 69-32 in nine seasons

The oldest son of Alexandria coaching legend Larry Ginn, Todd Ginn took over the Valley Cubs in 2018.

Since then, he has won two region championships and guided Alexandria to the playoffs in eight of his nine seasons.

Evan Shipp — Hamilton

Career record: 28-15 in four seasons

Shipp accepted his first head coaching position at Hamilton in 2023, inheriting a struggling program.

The Aggies had finished 1-9 in 2022 and a combined 5-15 over the previous two seasons.

Since taking over, Shipp has won a region championship and led Hamilton to the playoffs in three of his four seasons.

Prediction: Alexandria vs. Hamilton

The Valley Cubs' ground game is the best Hamilton has faced all season.

Hamilton will score and keep things close longer than the home crowd would prefer.

But an all-night grind from Alexandria's vaunted rushing attack eventually wears down a tired Aggies defense.

Final score prediction: Alexandria 38, Hamilton 27

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