Astros Free Agent Philosophy Could Be Permeating Other Teams

Recently, MLB teams are starting to practice when signing players in free agency, something that Houston Astros have been doing for years.

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This isn't the first time the Houston Astros have done things before the majority of teams follow suit.

Long Term Contracts Were Everywhere

It seemed the once long term contracts of Yankees' Aaron Judge of 9 years, $360 million, or Rangers' Corey Seager's 10 years, $325 million, and Phillies Bryce Harper's 13 years, $330 million would never be topped.

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Boy, were we wrong. The Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani record-setting contract of 10 years, $700 million at the time was the biggest contract in MLB history. A deal feeling insurmountable, the Mets said "hold my beer" and signed outfielder Juan Soto for 15 years, $765 million. Both of these deals happened in the same year.

Reaching It's Peak

Soto and Ohtani's record-breaking contracts doubled the previous long-term deals by MVP candidates. The overwhelming idea of overspending on one player appeared to escalate faster. Large market teams believed that in order to get that star player, they would lock them in a long-term deal so they would commit faster. That was the way to go all in.

It sure is entertaining from the fan's point of view. Each future offseason felt like witnessing another record-breaking year in contract signings.

However, during this offseason, things have gone a different direction. Aside from the Toronto Blue Jays’ blockbuster deal for Dylan Cease, most agreements favor higher AAV over shorter terms, often including opt-outs or club options.

Astros Have Been Doing This For Awhile

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This is something the Houston Astros have practiced since Jim Crane became the owner. In franchise history, the Astros haven't spent more than $30 million a year on a free agent, nor have they gone past six years. Decisions like these have saved them from having to deal with possible star-player injuries or from struggling to perform as advertised after a long-term signing.

Astros fans can point fingers at the contracts of Jose Abreu, Christian Walker, Lance McCullers Jr., or Rafael Montero, yet when you look at these deals, they are much smaller blemishes compared to teams that swing for the fences. A conservative approach at worst, yet beneficial in the long run.

Houston's let star players in Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and recently Framber Valdez go, knowing each of them would be expensive to keep. It's arguable to say Houston's 2019 roster had players worth close to a future billion dollars.

Former Astros who have signed nine-figure contracts in free agency since 2019
Gerrit Cole
George Springer
Carlos Correa
Justin Verlander
Alex Bregman
Kyle Tucker

Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez signed nine figure deals to stay

Just an absurd amount of talent

— Adam Spolane (@AdamSpolane) January 16, 2026

Imai's Contract

Nevertheless, they still remain competitive, finding capable players while keeping themselves out of financial risk. Even if the Astros go out and sign a player of high regard, there are clauses in place to protect their future. Tatsuya Imai’s contract is a clear example of that approach: a short-term, three-year deal worth $54 million that includes player opt-outs after each season.

Imai, an ace-level pitcher out of the Nippon Baseball League, was expected to be in the near $140-200 million dollar range. Experts believed teams including the Giants or the Phillies would be likely suitors.

Astros Negotiate With Twins To Pay Correa's Deal

The only player with a deal larger than $165 million on the Astros is Carlos Correa's 6-year $200 million contract, whom they received in a trade. Correa's the outlier in this scenario because his former team, the Minnesota Twins, are paying a third of his contract. The Twins paid Correa's yearly salary of $33 million for two seasons until he got shipped back to Houston, so the Astros are only paying $20 million per year to finish out his contract.

See? Even when Houston technically exceeds their financial threshold, they'll find a way to negotiate it on their terms.

Players Signing Contracts 5 years or Less

Looking back at this offseason, it appears that teams are following the Astros playbook. Following the Cease signing, these are how much non-Houston teams are signing high-caliber players:

Josh Naylor - Mariners, 5 years, $92 million

Alex Bregman - Cubs, 5 years, $175 million

Pete Alonso - Orioles, 5 years, $155 million with a partial no trade clause

Kyle Schwarber - Phillies, 5 years, $150 million

Ranger Suarez - Red Sox, 5 years, $130 million

Kyle Tucker - Dodgers, 4 years, $240 million with opt outs after the first two seasons

Bo Bichette - Mets, 3 years, $126 million with opt outs after the first two seasons

There is a clear pattern emerging across this free-agent market. While top players are commanding higher average annual values, teams have largely avoided long-term commitments, with most contracts capped at five years or fewer.

Outside of the Blue Jays, no player signed a deal longer than five years. Coveted stars such as Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette fit this model, opting for short-term, high AAV that include opt-outs after the first two seasons. A contract similar to the approach of Bregman when he was on the Red Sox.

Bichette and Tucker's decisions were a surprise. Teams like the Blue Jays and Phillies were reportedly willing to offer both of them long-term deals totaling more than $300 million.

Instead, front offices unexpectedly prioritized flexibility, wary of the long-term risk tied to massive guarantees, especially in the wake of recent mega-deals for Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, along with cautionary examples like Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million contract signed in 2019, which saw injury concerns after his Cy Young season that ultimately led to Tommy John surgery at the start of 2025.

What Teams Are Doing That Benefits Astros

That shift was recently discussed by Astros writer Chandler Rome on the Crush City Podcast, where he explained why this trend aligns closely with Houston’s long-standing philosophy:

“If this trend continues in free agency of short shorter term higher AAV deals. I think that would benefit the Astros greatly because the one thing Jim Crane doesn't like the years involved. He doesn't like the albatross of having the back end of an Albert Pujols contract, or insert 10-year deal that went awry here."

Crane isn't a long-term deal type of owner, he and the Astros have proven time and time again that they can still compete without the need to hold onto players forever. Should teams continue this trend of shorter term deals like the Astros have been actively participating for over a decade, maybe that could push the team to compete more aggressively in free agency.

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