History Suggests Houston Astros Young Star Will Be AL Cy Young Finalist This Year

If history repeats itself, the Houston Astros young star will be in the AL Cy Young race this year based on what he's done through his first five starts.

Apr 21, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) reacts after a strikeout against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Daikin Park | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The best story surrounding the Houston Astros so far this year is the performance of Hunter Brown.

Always projected to be a top-end starting pitcher for this franchise, he has catapulted himself into future stardom by becoming the ace of the staff and one of the best young arms in the sport.

Through five starts, Brown has an ERA of 1.16, the sixth-best in Major League Baseball and fourth-best in the American League entering play on Tuesday.

Signs were there suggesting this would be a breakout year for the right-hander.

Brown had an atrocious month of April in 2024 with an ERA of 11.84, and if it weren't for all the injuries the starting rotation suffered, he might have been sent down to the minors. However, the Astros had to keep him in the mix out of necessity, and he was able to work through his issues at the Major League level to finish with a 3.49 ERA where he never had a month over the 4.00 ERA threshold the rest of the way.

Now, he's taken his game to the next level with one of the best starts in franchise history.

Hunter Brown’s 1.16 ERA is the 5th-lowest by an Astros pitcher through the first 5 starts of a season in the Wild Card Era, behind Dallas Keuchel (0.73, 2015), Roger Clemens (1.03, 2005) and Justin Verlander (1.06, 2017 and 1.10, 2018).

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That bit of information is eye-catching, and it's a nice list of names to join, but it also suggests Brown could be in line for some hardware at the end of this season.

Roger Clemens finished third in NL Cy Young voting for the 2005 season.

Justin Verlander's 2017 figure came following the trade deadline after he was acquired from the Detroit Tigers, and in 2018, he finished runner-up in AL Cy Young voting before winning it the following year.

Dallas Keuchel's five-game start in 2015 propelled him to the the award.

So, history suggests that Brown will at least finish third place in AL Cy Young voting this season based on the start he's had when looking at how the the others in Astros history who performed this well have fared at the conclusion of their respective campaigns.

Of course, Brown has to keep performing at this level if he's going to be in contention for this prestigious award, especially because there are multiple other starting pitchers who are putting together solid years, too.

But even if he isn't able to follow in the footsteps of Clemens, Verlander and Keuchel when it comes to how they finished in the award voting after their dominant starts to the season, the fact that Brown is performing to this degree bodes well for the future of his career and the franchise as a whole.