Houston Astros Have 3 Key Players Set to Rebound Strongly in 2026

With the Houston Astros looking to tighten their payroll and avoid the luxury tax, they could look to bounce back seasons from these three players in order to remain competitive in the AL West.

Houston Astros hat and glove | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The 2025 MLB season saw the end of what was an eight-year postseason streak for the Houston Astros after the club was ousted from the playoff picture during the final weekend of the regular season.

The Astros came agonizingly close, finishing with the same record as the playoff-bound Detroit Tigers and three games behind the AL West division-winning Seattle Mariners. It is the type of narrow miss that is painful in the moment but ultimately inspires optimism for a quick turnaround the following year.

For Houston, such a turnaround is possible, but won't be easy. A lack of payroll flexibility owing to seven players earning a total of nearly $160 million has reportedly limited the club's offseason spending under owner Jim Crane. That means the Astros may not be able to afford to bring back front-line free agent starter Framber Valdez or even find a suitable replacement.

When you lose talented players and lack the resources to replace them, you are left to lean on internal improvement. Last season, Hunter Brown made the leap to staff ace by lowering his ERA from 3.49 to 2.43, while shortstop Jeremy Pena upped his OPS from .701 to .840.

Even amidst career years for Brown and Pena, however, Houston saw other players underperform. Just as Brown and Pena elevated their games in 2025, the team will be looking for these three players to bounce back and enjoy a similar spike in performance in 2026.

Lance McCullers Jr.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. pitches against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium | William Liang-Imagn Images

Assuming Valdez signs elsewhere, the Astros' rotation boasts precious little depth beyond Brown and Cristian Javier. Spencer Arrighetti and Ronel Blanco are both question marks, as they return from a right elbow injury and Tommy John surgery, respectively. The club took a flyer on former Toronto Blue Jays prospect Nate Pearson, who could factor into the starting five.

Houston could, however, get some help from a now-healthy Lance McCullers Jr.

McCullers Jr. will enter the 2026 season, the final year of his five-year, $85 million contract, following his first healthy offseason in five years. He did pitch in 2025, but made only 13 starts amidst a rash of injuries while showing the type of rust expected of someone who hadn't been on a big league mound since 2022 due to flexor tendon surgery.

McCullers Jr. is many years removed from his standout 2021 campaign (13-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 185 strikeouts), but even if the 32-year-old can bear passing resemblance to that player, the Astros' rotation will get that much deeper.

Yordan Alvarez

Houston Astros left fielder Yordan Alvarez warms up prior to the game against the Texas Rangers at Daikin Park | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Hand issues and a left ankle sprain limited Houston slugger Yordan Alvarez to 48 games, resulting in a maddening 2025 campaign after three straight All-Star seasons.

Alvarez and the Astros hope that it was merely a blip and that the 28-year-old can go right back to being the same middle-of-the-order power bat that cranked 136 home runs from 2021 to 2024. Houston clearly missed his run production last season, finishing 21st in runs scored after boasting a top-five MLB offense as recently as two seasons ago.

A return to help for Alvarez would offer a major boost for the Astros. He remains in the midst of his prime and should serve as the centerpiece of an offense hoping for further contributions from newcomer Isaac Paredes, another step forward from Cam Smith coming off his rookie season, and more multi-dimensional play from Pena.

Jose Altuve

It was a frustrating 2025 season for the Houston Astros and second baseman Jose Altuve | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

It might seem foolish to anticipate a bounce back season from a 35-year-old with nearly 2,000 games of MLB experience under his belt, but Jose Altuve isn't your typical aging star player.

Sure, Altuve may be eight years removed from winning AL MVP honors after leading the league in WAR (8.1), hits (204) and average (.346), but the second baseman was named to the All-Star Game as recently as 2024 (although he didn't attend).

Even if you account for some age-related decline, Altuve's 2025 season - which was still perfectly adequate, by the way - marked a big step down from his typical caliber of play. His .265 average was the lowest that the Venezuelan star has posted in any non-pandemic season. Even a return to something close to his career average of .303 would be a boon for the Astros.

The Astros didn't miss the playoffs by much in 2025, so a few internal improvements could make a substantial difference as we head into 2026. It's been a rather bleak offseason to date for Houston, but bounce-backs from the likes of McCullers Jr., Alvarez and/or Altuve could represent significant 'additions' at a time when the organization isn't in a position to spend freely.

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