Why This Houston Astros' Top Prospect Isn’t Close—And Why That’s Okay

This Houston Astros top prospect has an incredibly high ceiling, and just needs time to reach it.

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Not every Houston Astros fan may know Ethan Frey, but he has the opportunity to be well-known for a long time in Houston. Frey was the Astros' 2025 third-round pick (95th overall), out of LSU.

The 21-year-old (22 on Sunday) outfielder was limited to just 76 at-bats over his first two seasons at LSU before breaking out in 2025. Frey batted .331/.420/.641 with 13 homers, 50 RBI, and a 1.061 OPS over 62 games.

Frey was the main reason the Tigers won their second College World Series in three seasons. Frey batted second and went 3 for 5 with a double and RBI in the series finale.

Ethan Frey Stood Out Amongst a Stacked LSU Roster

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He was one of nine LSU players to be drafted in last season's draft, and he led the team in slugging percentage.

Now that we've digested how incredible Frey's last collegiate season was, it's time to see how it transferred to the minor leagues. He spent 26 games and 100 at-bats at Single-A Fayetteville last summer, and it went as well as it could have.

He batted .330 with three homers, 17 RBI, and stole more bases over the month than he did his entire collegiate career. His spring training hasn't gone quite as well, with a .154 average through 13 at-bats, but Frey is still Houston's No. 3 prospect.

MLB.com predicts he won't make his MLB debut until 2028, and his lack of consistency is the reason why. Due to an injury and being a freshman on the NCAA's premier baseball powerhouse, Frey wasn't a full-time starter until the 2025 season.

Ethan Frey Is Buried on the Minor League Depth Chart for Now, but Not Forever

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Overall, he played in just 115 college games and posted elite production in just his junior campaign. Frey is still a raw prospect with a lot to prove, which places him further from the big leagues than other big-named elite college bats from years past.

Players like Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone were able to fly through the minor leagues due to extensive time and production in college. Unfortunately for Houston, Frey is not in that category, but that's okay.

His on-base prowess and power give him an incredibly high ceiling. If Frey can put together a good start to the 2026 season, there's no reason he won't capitalize on it and move up the ranks quickly.

For now, he's near the bottom of the pecking order until he proves himself, but that's okay. He's an elite talent who will hopefully have a strong career; he just needs to develop right first.