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Does Justin Verlander Deserve an MVP Award?

Following Tommy John surgery, Houston Astros' ace Justin Verlander is have the best season of his career at age-39.

Author:
Ben Silver
Publish date:
Aug 13, 2022 5:00 PM EDT

In this story:

It's absurd that Justin Verlander won't be an MVP finalist in 2022.

Coming off Tommy John surgery at age 39, the Houston Astros' ace has had a late-career renaissance reminiscent of Randy Johnson. Sporting a 1.85 ERA, Verlander leads all MLB.

Meanwhile, across the American League, two players are putting together seasons rivaling the best in history. Verlander is probably a lock for the AL Cy Young Award, but Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge will win MVP, not to mention Yordan Álvarez's torrid offensive pace.

Judge is currently on pace for 68 home runs. If he his more than 65, let alone 60 he will win MVP. As one of only three people to hit 60 home runs without using PEDs, voters will not overlook the list that he's added himself to: Babe Ruth, Roger Maris and Aaron Judge.

Out on the West Coast, Ohtani is putting on a show of another nature. In 2021 he answered the question: what would happen if one of the league's best hitters was also a great pitcher? The answer to that question is MVP.

In 2022 that hypothetical has flipped: what would happen if one of the league's best pitchers is also a great hitter? The answer: fourth-place in the AL West.

Ohtani has a 2.45 FIP and 2.68 ERA over 111 innings. Every time he takes the mound, he puts on a show. At the dish, Ohtani has 25 home runs with a .839 OPS and 135 OPS+.

It's hard to put a price on a player who fills two roster slots.

Verlander's teammate Alvarez is putting together a monster season as well, his OPS is 1.031, his OPS+ is 189. He's no Judge, who has a 1.088 OPS and 205 OPS+ in addition to his home run total, but Alvarez is putting together an incredible offensive season during a league-wide offensive lull.

All three of these players will probably receive more MVP votes than Verlander. It takes a lot more for a pitcher to win MVP than a hitter, but to that award, Verlander is no stranger.

In 2011, he won MVP over a rather weak class of hitters. That year Verlander lead the league with 251 innings, a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts. Runners-up Jacoby Ellsbury and José Bautista each had 8.3 WAR, but neither had groundbreaking seasons.

In another scenario like this, Verlander likely wins MVP in 2022. Going back to the last pitcher to win AL MVP in 2011, Justin Verlander, how often do scenarios occur where a pitcher of his caliber can win MVP?

In 2021 Ohtani made history, he would undoubtedly beat Verlander in an MVP race. It's hard to compare players from 2020's shortened season, so we'll skip to 2019.

That year Mike Trout led MLB with a 1.083 OPS and 182 OPS+. Verlander may have had a chance, but it's likely voters would pick the equivalent value position player.

In 2018, Mookie Betts won MVP with 10.7 WAR, playing Gold Glove defense in right field with 30 stolen bases, 30 home runs and a 1.078 OPS. Trout finished runner-up that year with a 198 OPS+. Verlander would not have won MVP.

In 2017, Altuve won MVP with a .346 AVG and .957 OPS and 32 stolen bases. It was an impressive season, but not groundbreaking. It's entirely possible Verlander would have won MVP that year.

In 2016, Trout won MVP again with 10.5 WAR. He was one home run away from a 30/30 season. Verlander would not have won MVP that year.

In 2015, Josh Donaldson took home MVP, leading the league in only RBI and runs scored. His OPS+ was just 151 with below-average defense. Verlander would have won MVP that year.

In 2014, Mike Trout won the award with 7.7 WAR and 169 OPS+. He also lead the league in strikeouts and played horrible defense, adjusting to Major League center field. Verlander would have won MVP in 2014.

In 2013, Miguel Cabrera won MVP leading MLB in AVG, OBP and SLG, his OPS+ was 190. Verlander wouldn't have won MVP in 2013. The same circumstances occurred in 2012, when Cabrera won MVP as the first Triple Crown winner since 1967 and Carl Yastrzemski.

In three out of nine seasons, Verlander's 2022 would have carried him to a second MVP award. It's unfortunate the circumstances aren't different in 2022, but a pitcher winning the award requires luck on both the part of the pitcher, and the rest of the league.