3 Bold Predictions for the Oakland A's in 2023
The Oakland Athletics have a date with Shohei Ohtani and the revamped Los Angeles Angels on March 30 to kick off the 2023 season. The A's are coming off their first 100-loss season since Rickey Henderson debuted back in 1979, finishing with a 60-102 record, so expectations aren't sky high for the green and gold, but this team could end up being more competitive than many are expecting after some intriguing veteran signings built up the club's depth.
Still, the eye is on the future in Oakland.
Mason Miller is the Breakout Rookie on this Team
Some may not deem this too bold, because Miller is the A's #3 prospect over at FanGraphs and #4 at MLB Pipeline. He has the goods. The big question with Miller is whether or not he can stay healthy. That's where the boldness comes in.
Miller was drafted in the third round (97th overall) in 2021 and has accumulated just 20 innings in pro ball since. The reason he's such a highly regarded prospect given how little evaluators have seen of him is because he can reach triple digits, commands the baseball extremely well, and has produced at every level he's played, even reaching Triple-A last season.
Miller also got some work in during the Arizona Fall League last year and posted a 3.24 ERA to go along with 20 strikeouts and four walks in 16.2 innings pitched. He allowed just nine hits, giving him a WHIP of 0.780, which is outstanding for a starting pitcher. The Fall League is riddled with some of the games top up-and-coming prospects, so for him to show out like he did given how little he's pitched in pro ball is pretty remarkable.
The A's will likely make some trades this season, which will open up spots for fellow top prospects Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof, but if Miller is healthy, and he gets a shot, he's the one that people will walk away from this season talking about.
The A's Finish with 75 Wins
75 wins may not seem like a big accomplishment, but the over/under win total for the A's over at FanDuel is 59.5. The reason I think the A's could win as many as 75 games this season is that their depth is a lot better than last season. They have platoon options around the diamond that should give them at least league average production at the plate, and their defense should also see an uptick in performance.
Rule 5 draftee Ryan Noda is a bit of an unknown at the moment, but he has shown the ability to get on base at every stop in the minors, including a .396 OBP last season in Triple-A. There will be an adjustment for him, but he has the tools to succeed at the next level, he just didn't get an opportunity to join the Dodgers in Los Angeles because their team has been so stacked with proven veterans. The A's could be the perfect landing spot.
Jace Peterson played some great defense at the hot corner for the Milwaukee Brewers last season, and had a pretty good year overall. If it were up to me, he'd platoon at third with Kevin Smith, who has followed up last season's scorching September (.365 average, .405 OBP, 11 homers, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 19 rbi) with a very solid spring, going 15-for-39 (.385) with a .467 on-base, two homers, and 14 rbi. The two could combine to be a top-5 defensive third baseman in addition to providing solid production at the dish.
The offense, despite not having many household names, is going to be much improved.
The pitching staff is also a lot deeper this season, and has Shintaro Fujinami as a huge potential bright spot. The A's signed Fuji in January, and this spring he has shown that he can be absolutely dominant, but also just completely lose his command in the middle of a start. If he can figure that out just enough, he has the arsenal to go toe to toe with some of the game's best pitchers.
The A's will be without their lone All Star, Paul Blackburn, on Opening Day. They may also be without Drew Rucinski, who they signed out of the KBO after four impressive seasons. Even with those two down, the rotation offers some intriguing options, thanks to the trades of Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. JP Sears (Montas deal) will likely make the A's roster as either a starter or a reliever to begin the season. Kyle Muller (Murphy deal) has shown flashes of what he's capable of, but needs time to hone his craft at the big-league level. The friendly confines of the Coliseum should be a great place to do just that. Then there's Ken Waldichuk (Montas), who really hit his stride at the end of the season, besting both Jacob deGrom and Shohei Ohtani in his final three starts.
The main reason people are doubting the A's is that they saw the team last year, and then noticed that they've traded Sean Murphy, Cole Irvin, and A.J. Puk. Murphy's replacement, Shea Langeliers, may not be too big of a step back from Murph in his first full season. Irvin's replacement as a league average arm that can provide steady innings is Drew Rucinski when he's ready to go. And the second lefty in the bullpen to replace Puk could very well be Sears, as I wrote about when the trade happened.
Those roster additions, plus the fact that the A's won't have to face the Astros, Mariners, Angels, and those pesky Rangers quite as much with the new-look schedule should mean a few easier opponents for the A's to collect some extra wins.
The A's Stay in Oakland
Honestly, I don't have any special insight on this one, but I'm trying to will it into existence. The A's need to have a binding agreement on a new ballpark by January of next year, or they'll be kicked off revenue sharing. That means that time is of the essence for the club to find their next home.
Right now the team is focusing more on the Las Vegas path, because the Legislative calendar there closes in June, which means they need to know if they want to relocate before then.
Casey Pratt of ABC 7 has mentioned in a number of his YouTube videos that he believes the A's know what the deal is for them to get a ballpark done in Oakland, and now they are seeing if they can squeeze out a better deal in Vegas before making their final decision.
I've said for awhile now that an expansion franchise makes more sense for Las Vegas than bringing in the Oakland A's, because that team would be their team. The A's have well over 100 years of history already, and that sense of ownership just wouldn't be the same. For what it's worth, MLB player and Las Vegas native Bryce Harper echoed that sentiment just last week.
Plus, if you're the residents of Las Vegas (not the Bay Area transplants that grew up A's fans and live in Vegas now), would you rather have a brand new organization with a new owner, potentially a Vegas native, or would you want the A's, and their owner that is fixated on not handing out big contracts and has essentially turned away the fan base at their former location?
Keep in mind that the amount of money holding up the A's staying in Oakland is roughly the size a contract given out to one of the top free agents each winter. If Fisher isn't going to spend money on a ballpark project, it's hard to believe that he's going to make good on his promise to spend more when the ballpark is actually built.
It seems like an obvious choice.
As it stands right now, the A's have been flirting with Las Vegas for nearly two years. They still don't have a site selected, and time is running out. The chatter probably won't be terribly positive about the A's remaining in Oakland for the next couple of months, but if they don't have something lined up with Las Vegas by sometime in June, then the path may be clear for them to stay.
It'll feel like a long shot at times, but that's why it's a bold prediction.