Why Trading A.J. Puk Works Out for JP Sears
At the GM Meetings in November, David Forst told reporters that A.J. Puk was going to come to camp stretched out and ready to compete for a starting spot in the A's rotation.
With the amount of innings he would have to add to his workload, that always seemed like a pipe dream for 2023, though a season as a two-inning reliever could have gotten him ready for a starter's workload in 2024.
Yet, with Puk out of the picture in Oakland, a spot in the bullpen just opened up, and the odds-on favorite to claim that spot has to be JP Sears, who was part of the package brought back in the Frankie Montas trade last summer.
Sears had his moments for the A's post-trade, including absolutely shutting down the Seattle Mariners on three separate occasions. Yet, he was probably going to be on the outside of the A's 2023 rotation to start the season with new additions Shintaro Fujinami and Drew Rucinski looking to be the favorites for a pair of spots, along with Ken Waldichuk and Kyle Muller also vying for a pair of spots. Then you add in the incumbents, James Kaprielian and Paul Blackburn, and you're already at a six man rotation.
Transitioning Sears to a relief role would make the most sense. As a Yankee, five of his seven appearances were in relief, and overall he pitched pretty well as a multi-inning reliever, posting a 2.60 ERA in 17.1 innings with a 0.808 WHIP.
Last season Puk topped 50 innings for the first time since 2017 when he tossed 125 for Stockton and Midland. He tossed 66.1 innings for the A's last year and held a respectable 3.15 ERA to go along with a 1.15 WHIP.
The projections on FanGraphs for Puk in 2023 range from a 3.50 ERA to a 3.71, and there is a simple reason for that. Last year just 3 of the 17 bequeathed runners he had came around to score. That's a rate of 17%. He allowed 7 of the 22 runners he inherited to cross the plate, a rate of 31.8%. If you give Puk the same rate as he allowed, he gets three runs added to his total and his ERA goes up to 3.54.
In contrast, JP Sears finished the season with a 3.86 ERA across 17 games, 11 starts. Four of the seven runners he bequeathed came around to score, for a rate of 57%. If you give Sears the same rate that Puk received, you take three runs away from his total, and he finishes with a 3.47 ERA.
It's not a huge difference, but Sears may actually be an upgrade over Puk in the bullpen if he can continue to keep hitters off balance. Plus, the A's get JJ Bleday, baseball's #20 prospect before the 2021 season according to Pipeline.
Bleday, 25, was drafted in 2019, played 38 games at High-A in his first taste of pro ball, then had a year off in 2020 due to Covid. When play resumed, the Marlins gave him an aggressive assignment, putting him in Double-A for his first full season of professional baseball.
He hit just .212 that season, but did have a .323 on-base and hit 12 homers in 110 games. Not the best stat line, but he played well in the Arizona Fall League, batting.316 with a .435 OBP and walked nearly as much as he struck out (20 walks to 23 strikeouts) in 24 games.
The Marlins moved him up to Triple-A in 2022 where he hit .229, but his 16.3% walk rate bumped his on base percentage to .365, and he added 20 home runs in 85 games.
The Marlins moved him up to the big leagues after a total of 223 games in the minors and he hit .167 with a .277 OBP and collected another five homers. He's moved quickly, but a little extra time at Triple-A could go a long way in his long-term development. The Marlins may be so desperate to add bats to their big league roster that they aren't taking the time to actually develop the guys they have.
That's the gamble the A's are taking in this trade. In the meantime, Oakland has a pretty good replacement for Puk in the bullpen in Sears.