A's Opening Day Roster Projection v3.0
The Oakland A's will be without starter Paul Blackburn and backup catcher Manny PIña at the beginning of the 2023 season, so it's time to update my roster projections. So far, outside of injuries and the A.J. Puk trade, my original roster projection is still intact, unlike my March Madness bracket. The rotation is getting clearer, and it feels like it's time to make an adjustment to one of the guys that's been hanging around, so let's talk about the A's Opening Day roster!
Catcher
This felt like the easiest one to predict at the beginning of camp, but Piña's wrist inflammation and undetermined timetable for a return have put the backup catcher spot up in the air. The two main options are Yohel Pozo, who has 21 games of big league experience (two at catcher), and 2019 fourth rounder Kyle McCann. Both players were destined for Triple-A, and neither is on the 40-man roster. Pozo has played 81 games at catcher in Triple-A (142 overall games at the level), while McCann has three games at catcher in Triple-A, and seven games overall in Vegas.
I feel like the answer is going to either be Pozo, or a catcher not yet in the organization. The A's aren't necessarily trying to account for Piña's bat the way I see it. They want his defense and veteran experience, and none of the A's in-house options meet that criteria. Because of this, I'm going to cheat just a little with my roster projection.
Shea Langeliers (1), Yohel Pozo (or outside catcher, 2)
First Base
Nothing has really changed here. It's going to more or less be a platoon situation with Jesús Aguilar and Rule 5 pick Ryan Noda. Aguilar, a veteran righty, will also get time as the team's DH on days when both of them are in the lineup.
Jesús Aguilar (3), Ryan Noda (4)
Second Base
In previous versions, I've had both Tony Kemp and newcomer Aledmys Díaz manning the keystone, but with recent developments and Díaz playing a lot of shortstop this spring, it may not be Kemp that he's splitting time with exclusively.
Instead, Díaz could split time at second with Kemp against left-handers, and take over at shortstop when there is a righty on the mound. The A's want to keep Díaz, a utility player, primarily on the infield given his injury history, and they also signed him to play him more or less every day.
Last season Allen held a 122 wRC+ (22% above league average) against left-handers, while Díaz held a 121 wRC+ (21% above league average). That duo against lefties would put Allen--who's hitting like Francisco Lindor--at short, and Díaz--who's playing like DJ LeMahieu--at second. Each player would rank top-5 at their position in wRC+ if last year's numbers hold up over a full season.
Then against right-handers, Mark Kotsay can replace Allen (36 wRC+) with Díaz (109 career wRC+) at shortstop while Kemp (93 wRC+) plays second. That would be a Willy Adames/Brendan Rodgers combo. Not as tantalizing, but Kemp's career wRC+ versus righties is exactly 100, or right at league average.
Tony Kemp (5), Aledmys Dïaz (6)
Shortstop
It'll be Nick Allen, and it could be as I described above.
Nick Allen (7)
Third Base
This is an original prediction that I'm feeling pretty good about. Not many were on board the Kevin Smith hype train when spring games began, but his month of September last season in Las Vegas and the numbers he put up against left-handers in Oakland, even while struggling overall, made it look like he had a pretty decent shot of making the Opening Day roster for another shot at sticking.
Smith is 12-for-31 this spring (.387) with a .457 OBP and a 1.102 OPS.
The duo of Jace Peterson and Kevin Smith can mash while playing some incredible defense at the hot corner. Plus Smith is a natural shortstop, so the A's would have more coverage there, if needed.
Jace Peterson (8) Kevin Smith (9)
Right Field
This has Ramón Laureano written all over it.
Ramón Laureano (10)
Center Field
Cristian Pache is another player I put on the roster in my first version, and based off of what Mark Kotsay has been saying about "roster construction" determining some of the spots on the initial roster, it sounds as though he's talking about Pache specifically. The 24-year-old centerfielder is out of minor-league options, which means he has to make the Opening Day roster or be placed on waivers. The A's could also attempt to trade him if he didn't make the 26-man roster.
So far this spring, Pache is 12-for-33 (.364) with a .382 on-base, a double, two triples, a walk, and he has struck out just three times. At the very least, he'll be in a platoon role with Seth Brown in left, but I have him as the everyday centerfielder for better or worse.
Cristian Pache (11)
Left Field
Seth Brown is the obviously candidate here, and the job is his as long as he's healthy. He hasn't played in the outfield in eleven days, with his only game action coming at DH due to shoulder soreness, per Matt Kawahara. The hope is that Brown will be able to play outfield in a game by Friday.
If he's not available, Brent Rooker seems like the obvious fit here in left. The A's also tried Pache in left on Thursday, so it could also be him and Esteury Ruiz in left and center. A lot depends on Brown's health heading into the season, but for now, the answer is obviously Brown.
Seth Brown (12)
4th Outfielder
This will also depend on the health of Seth Brown come Opening Day, but if he's good to go, I'm going to throw Brent Rooker in as the platoon partner with Brown. Rooker has some experience in the Majors, getting into 81 game across three seasons and has hit .200 with a .289 OBP in 240 at-bats.
However, last season in Triple-A when he was facing left-handers, he hit .321 with a .429 OBP and nine home runs in 78 at-bats. This spring he has been one of the A's hottest hitters, going 11-for-28 (.393) with a .553 OBP, five doubles, nine walks, and ten strikeouts.
Ruiz is also in the mix for an outfield spot, but he's 24 while Rooker is 28. The A's may be more inclined to see what Rooker can do sooner while giving Ruiz some time to hit his stride in Triple-A before being called up. If Brown ends up starting the season on the IL, Rooker, Capel, and Pache would join Laureano in my projected outfield. Capel vaults into the mix because he's a lefty bat, like Brown.
Brent Rooker (13)
Starting Rotation
I made the case for Shintaro Fujinami to start on Opening Day, so he's in. Sunday's game against the Dodgers could be a good test for him, and if he performs well, we could hear an announcement shortly thereafter.
The other guarantees would be James Kaprielian and Drew Rucinski.
With Blackburn set to miss a little time while his nail heals, there are now two spots open in the rotation, and Ken Waldichuk, who has been in my rotations previously, may not claim either of them.
Adam Oller is having one heck of a camp. In four games he has totaled 12.2 IP, given up just two earned, nine hits, walked four and struck out 16, leading to a 1.42 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. Based off performance, he gets the nod.
The other spot is basically between Waldichuk and Kyle Muller, and right now I'm giving Muller the nod. On Saturday he went 5.1 IP, needing only 59 pitches, while allowing five hits, three runs, zero walks, and striking out five. Working into the sixth on under 60 pitches is an impressive feat, and I think that may have just sealed up his spot in the rotation.
In contrast, Waldichuk hasn't been as economical with his pitches, and has had a harder time getting deeper into games, which is a concern. He was better in his last start against the Royals, notching 4.1 innings, giving up six hits and two runs while walking just one and striking out three. He'd been walking over a batter an inning heading into that start, so it was a step in the right direction. We'll see if he can build upon that start when he takes the mound next.
Shintaro Fujinami (14), James Kaprielian (15), Drew Rucinski (16), Kyle Muller (17), Adam Oller (18)
Bullpen
No real surprises here from the last projection to now. With the injury to Kirby Snead, the A's needed another lefty, and even though he looked dominant last weekend against the Giants, I'm keeping JP Sears in the bullpen mix.
The core bullpen is pretty much set, but there is one spot that could be up for grabs, and it will likely come down to Drew Steckenrider, 32, and Rico Garcia, 29.
Here's how they stack up this spring:
Steckenrider: 7.2 IP, 10 hits, 4 ER, BB, 7 K. He has a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP
Garcia: 6.1 IP, 6 hits, ER, 5 BB, 9 K. He has a 1.42 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP.
Garcia has the better ERA, but Steckenrider has the better WHIP, which could indicate that he'd have better long-term success. The one question with Garcia is whether his strikeouts would translate to the Majors, and the returns in camp have been good, but he's also facing Double-A players on average, per Baseball Reference. Last season he went from striking out 60 batters in 45.1 Triple-A innings, to two in eight frames with the Orioles. That's a K/9 shift from 11.9 to 2.3. Because of that question, I think Steckenrider gets the nod while the A's see more of what Garcia can do in Las Vegas.
The only other reliever that could make a claim here would probably be Austin Pruitt, who spent time with the A's last season and filled a number of roles with the club. Pruitt is currently signed to a minor-league deal.
Righties: Trevor May (19), Dany Jiménez (20), Zach Jackson (21), Drew Steckenrider (22), Chad Smith (23), Domingo Acevedo (24)
Lefties: Sam Moll (25), JP Sears (26)
Who is making your Opening Day roster? Let us know!