Nick Allen Not the A's Primary Shortstop?
Nick Allen made his Major League debut last season, getting into 100 games while batting .207 with a .256 on-base. Not the best of debuts, but his glove at shortstop is Gold Glove caliber, and allows him some time to figure out the bat at the big-league level moving forward. Or so we thought.
When asked if Allen would be the A's primary shortstop this season, A's GM David Forst told the Chronicle, "I don't know that we have anything penciled in like that."
That is a very interesting thing to hear just over three weeks away from Opening Day. Allen has been the presumed shortstop of the future since he was selected in the third round of the 2017 Draft.
His numbers this spring haven't been bad by any stretch. He's 4-for-11 (.364) with a stolen base, three walks and three strikeouts. So just what is going on here, and who else could be in line to play shortstop if not Allen?
Let's talk about other options first.
The most likely candidate to get some time at shortstop aside from Allen would have to be Aledmys Díaz, who has started five games at the position this spring, more or less alternating starts with Allen. Díaz, 32, is a seven-year veteran that the A's signed to a two year, $14.5M deal this off-season, and he has played all around the diamond in recent years. The last time he was a regular at shortstop was back in 2018 with the Blue Jays, but he also played 18 games there with Houston a year ago, so he's not wholly unfamiliar with short either.
Díaz was particularly good against left-handed pitching last season, batting .267 with a .333 OBP and a 121 wRC+ (21% above league average). The past couple of seasons, Díaz has been roughly league average defensively at short. His best defensive position, and one that he could platoon very nicely with Tony Kemp, is second base. Kemp, a left-hander, struggled against southpaws. He hit .219 with a .310 OBP and an 82 wRC+ (18% below league average).
Even with Díaz being a decent defender and in all likelihood a better bat, with the new shift restrictions being put in place, a defender like Nick Allen may hold even more value in 2023 with just two players allowed on either side of second. That could lead to a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers seeing if the A's would be interested in moving Allen, since their own shortstop Gavin Lux is set to miss the season. L.A. has other options for offensive production, and again, Allen's defense is special.
A potential trade would be one way to explain why "nothing is penciled in." But that doesn't seem like a likely scenario.
Another option at short could be Kevin Smith, a natural shortstop. Smith played a tremendous third base last season, and I have him penciled in at third base to mash left-handers this season in a platoon with Jace Peterson. The only question with the Smith to short equation would be how well he could hit overall.
What I think is going on here is one of a couple options. The first is that Forst is trying to send a message to Allen, and potentially the whole squad, that nothing is guaranteed. You have to earn your spot, more or less.
The other is that the quote is leaning heavily on a couple of words, and the reason that Allen and Díaz have been alternating shortstop duties in camp is to get a read on how well they assess Díaz at short moving forward. Is this a position they'd feel comfortable with him handling?
If so, then Díaz could fill in for Allen when Nick needs a day off. If not, then he'll be seeing more time in left, at second, first, third, basically everywhere but short. This is good to know information, and spring is a good time to gather that information, just in case Allen has an injury that keeps him out for an extended period. The team will know whether Díaz can be the interim shortstop, or if Kevin Smith is their next in line.
The answer could also be to platoon Díaz at short with Allen against righties and at second with Kemp against lefties. Here is a breakdown of how that would look.
Kemp vs RHP: .238 average, .307 OBP, 93 wRC+, 7.8% BB rate, 10.6% K rate in 472 PA
Allen vs LHP: .276 average, .315 OBP, 122 wRC+, 5.3% BB rate, 10.6% K rate in 94 PA
Díaz vs RHP: .233 average, .268 OBP, 85 wRC+, 3.9% BB rate, 17.1% K rate in 228 PA
Díaz vs LHP: .267 average, .333 OBP, 121 wRC+, 9.1% BB rate, 14.1% K rate in 99 PA
While Díaz's splits against right-handers weren't stellar last season, over his career he's a .275 hitter with a .322 on-base and a 109 wRC+, so there is reason to believe that this platoon situation could actually work out well on offense, while also providing pretty solid defense up the middle.
Using Aledmys Díaz like this would also get him regular playing time, and keep him out of the outfield, which could be important given his recent injury history. The last time he crossed 100 games was back in 2018 with Toronto, when he played in 130, and coincidentally, spent most of his time at shortstop.
So is Nick Allen the "primary" shortstop in this scenario? No, because there are more right-handed pitchers than lefties. But in this scenario, Nick Allen is still on the team, still getting regular playing time, and should be more valuable with the bat, too.