Boston Red Sox Sign Bregman, Leaving AL West Wide Open

Aug 29, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) hits a home run during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images | Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

After months of rumors and speculation about where free agent third baseman Alex Bregman would end up, we finally have an answer. As Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported, Bregman is headed to the Boston Red Sox on a three-year, $120 million deal, which includes opt-outs after each season. Jeff Passan of ESPN is also reporting that there is deferred money involved in the deal.

The addition of Bregman likely means that he's headed to play second base for the Bo Sox, given that they already have a franchise cornerstone at the hot corner in Rafael Devers. You could make the argument that Bregman would be the better fit at the position defensively, but the ultimate decision will likely be up to Devers.

Offensively, Bregman is a pull hitter for his career, and while leaving the friendly confines of Minute Maid Park and the enticing Crawford Boxes in left field has been a topic of worry, landing with the Sox and being able to utilize the Green Monster seems like a nice compromise.

This is a solid signing for Boston, and Bregman is already projected to be one of their better players, in line for a 4.0 fWAR season. He also lengthens the club's lineup, which will be key in the tough AL East.

As for the AL West, Bregman's official departure from the Houston Astros will seemingly leave the division wide open. The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners are both projected for 85 wins, while Houston is right behind them at 84. A little ways back, both the A's and Los Angeles Angels are projected for 76 wins apiece.

This division could end up being the closest from top to bottom in all of baseball, and it's because there are no standout teams, and no clubs that are looking especially terrible, at least at the start of camp.

The A's rotation finished with a 4.76 ERA, which ranked 26th in all of baseball last season, and their 4.54 FIP held the same ranking. Heading into 2025, they have signed Luis Severino to a three-year, $67 million deal, and traded for former Tampa Bay Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs. Those two are projected to sit atop the A's rotation and provide some stability to a relatively inexperienced staff.

Behind them, there is JP Sears, who has made all of his starts in each of the past two seasons and is projected for a 4.55 ERA according to FanGraphs' Depth Charts. Joining that trio in the rotation, according to Roster Resource, will be Osvaldo Bido and Mitch Spence.

Bido had a tremendous breakout month of August, holding a 1.55 ERA spanning 29 innings while allowing just 14 hits and nine walks while striking out 28. In four of his five starts that month, he allowed three or fewer hits while going six innings three times, and five innings once. That is the pitcher that the A's are hoping to see more of in 2025.

He's projected for a 4.39 ERA on Depth Charts, but some projection systems also see him as a sub-4.00 ERA guy.

As for Spence, he made his MLB debut last season after being selected by the A's in the Rule 5 Draft, and began the year in the bullpen. By the middle of May, he was in the rotation, and he finished with a 4.64 ERA across 126 innings as a starter. Depth Charts has him projected for a 4.35 ERA, while some other projection systems have him just over a four ERA.

All this means is that it's hard to peg down exactly how the A's will perform in 2025. Yet, we know that they have some talent, and we know that they want to compete this season. Whether or not they can contend with the likes of the Rangers, Mariners, and Astros will likely depend upon what kind of production they receive from their rotation.

If they can get 140+ innings from each of Severino and Springs, then they could be in pretty good shape. If either of them misses time and the club still finishes right around league average with their starting five, then that would also be a win.

Of course, the A's could also just mash their way to some wins after Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler were the best duo in baseball in the second half of 2024, outside of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

The top of the AL West is bunched up tightly, but lurking not too far below the surface are the A's, waiting to pounce.