What a Sean Murphy to St. Louis Deal Could Look Like
Sean Murphy trade rumors are going to be flying this off-season, and basically up until he is officially traded. It's just a matter of when and where. So let's take a look at the St. Louis Cardinals, who are in the market for an upgrade behind the dish with long-time catcher and potential Hall of Famer, Yadier Molina retiring.
To me, the Cardinals make the most sense as a trade partner. Losing someone like Molina behind the dish is tough, and while the Blue Jays are expected to offer up one of their catchers in a trade this winter, Sean Murphy could be the best bet in the short and long term for St. Louis.
The Jays have Gabriel Moreno, a 22-year-old top prospect that got into 25 games at the big league level and hit .319 with a .356 OBP and slugged .377. Those are solid numbers, and he could have a very bright future in The Show, but the Cardinals are built around an older core of guys currently, and they need more surefire bets, at least from my vantage point.
Moreno is also the Jays' backstop with the closest trade value to Murphy.
The A's have typically followed a simple rule of thumb when it comes to big trades, and that is to add at least one guy in the big leagues already, another that is a prospect in the upper minors, and then another prospect that could be a flier, or a lower level guy.
We saw this in the Frankie Montas deal with the Yankees, bringing in JP Sears (MLB), Ken Waldichuk (upper minors), and Luis Medina (flier). In the Matt Olson trade, the A's got Cristian Pache (MLB), Shea Langeliers (upper minors), Joey Estes and Ryan Cusick (lower minors). For Matt Chapman, the A's got Kirby Snead (MLB), Kevin Smith (MLB), and Gunnar Hoglund (lower minors). And those are just a few of the recent deals the A's have made, and they've all followed that similar pattern.
So with that in mind, I think the trade could start off with 25-year-old right fielder Lars Nootbaar. He swings it from the left side, walked 14.7% of the time in 2022, and struck out 20.5% of the time. He screams Oakland A's. Plus, what's not to love about his Baseball Savant page?
To offset losing their right fielder, the A's could also include bounce-back candidate Ramón Laureano in the deal, since the A's may be looking to move him this winter anyway. The question here is whether or not Nootbaar is available.
From there, the A's could go a few different directions. Masyn Winn is a 20-year-old middle infielder and also St. Louis' number two prospect. Adding him to Nootbaar would be a tough ask, but could be manageable if the A's are pulling from down the prospect rankings for their third piece for this trade.
They could also forgo Winn and go for a combo like Mathew Liberatore, the Red Birds number four prospect, and Tink Hence, their number six guy.
Liberatore is a 6-foot-4, 23-year-old lefty that cracked the big leagues in 2022, posting a 5.97 ERA across nine appearances (seven starts) and 34 2/3 innings pitched. Hence is a 20-year-old righty that throws in the mid-90s and has touched 99 that offers a high-spin curve as his main secondary offering. In 52 1/3 innings in A Ball he struck out 82 batters and walked just 15, posting a 1.38 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.
Hence feels like a guy that would have to be in this deal.
The A's could also drop Nootbaar from their ask, since he's part of the starting lineup for St. Louis, and go with the trio of Liberatore (MLB), Winn (upper minors), and Hence (lower minors).
Nolan Gorman, the Cardinals' former number one prospect, could be another name that gets talked about, but the A's have been acquiring guys that make more contact than Gorman, who struck out over 30% of the time in both the Majors and in Triple-A in 2022. He has some serious thump in his bat, smacking 30 homers between both stops last season, but his glove, even at second, produced -6 Defensive Runs Saved in 548 innings.
If the Cardinals do end up being a trading partner in a deal with Sean Murphy, they have a lot of prospects that are tantalizing to a rebuilding club like the A's.
The Cardinals feel like the right partner in a Sean Murphy trade because of the loss of Molina behind the dish. Murph is the one of the few guys on the market that can do what he does defensively, and also crush the ball, as noted by the fact that he was nominated for a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove Award for his efforts in 2022.
Replacing Molina is no easy feat, but Sean Murphy also offers the Cardinals financial flexibility, since he's arbitration eligible for the next three seasons, and he has experience at the big league level, giving him a more proven track record, which has to be enticing for a win-now team.
There is no guarantee that Sean Murphy will in fact be moved this winter. The A's could hold onto him until the Trade Deadline, and we could do all of this speculating over landing spots all over again. If the Cardinals end up going in a different direction this winter, then that could hurt the Sean Murphy market as well, so these two teams have incentive to work together and find a deal that works for both clubs.
Trading Sean Murphy could be the A's last big trade chip, and outside of the 2023 Draft, their last big chance to really add some big-time prospects to help boost the farm system.