What a Sean Murphy Trade to Cleveland Could Look Like
For a couple of weeks now, there have been teams emerging that have "expressed interest" or "checked in" with the A's about acquiring catcher Sean Murphy, but Wednesday's tweet from Jon Morosi of MLB Network states that the Cleveland Guardians are the "most active suitors" currently.
Some also believe that Sean Murphy could be dealt by the end of next week's Winter Meetings.
Murphy is obviously a player in demand with him being a fit for so many teams because he is both excellent at his position, and he is just hitting arbitration. That means he has three years of control left and will be affordable, with a projected $3.5MM salary for 2023.
This past season Murphy was twenty percent better than league average at the dish--and that includes all bats, not just catchers--finishing with 18 home runs while batting .250 with a .332 OBP. Catchers across baseball held a batting average of .226 with a .295 OBP to go along with an 89 wRC+.
Cleveland's catchers hit .178 with a .265 on-base and finished 45% below league average with a 55 wRC+. Murphy would bring the same level of defense that the Guardians were accustomed to in 2022, but would offer a huge increase in production at the plate. Adding some bats to pair with their excellent pitching could lead to a deeper postseason run in 2023.
So what would it take to get Sean Murphy to be Cleveland's catcher?
The A's typically follow a formula that includes one big leaguer, one player near big league ready, and another in the lower minors or currently recovering from injury.
They don't always follow that to the letter, but it's a good parameter to set when trying to figure out which players they may be after.
The deal likely starts off with Cleveland's #2 prospect on MLB Pipeline, George Valera. They also have him as the #31 prospect in all of baseball, but FanGraphs has him down at #99 in a more updated list. Either way, he's a top 100 prospect.
Valera just turned 22 and is a lefty bat that has primarily patrolled right field, and spent the 2022 season--as a 21-year-old--between Double-A and Triple-A. In 132 combined games, he hit .250 with a .352 on-base, 24 home runs, and an .816 OPS. FanGraphs also says his swing is reminiscent of Robinson Cano's.
From there, Jeff Ellis, the host of Locked on Guardians, thinks the trade could include Cleveland's #4 prospect on Pipeline, shortstop Brayan Rocchio. FanGraphs has him as the Guardian's #3 prospect, and the #48 prospect in all of baseball.
Rocchio turns 22 in January, and like Valera, spent the 2022 campaign as a 21-year-old split between Akron and Columbus. In 132 games (99 in Double-A) he batted a combined .257 with a .336 OBP and 18 homers, striking out just 17.5% of the time while being on the younger side of both levels by at least a few years.
He's also a solid defender at shortstop, but his arm strength is average, which could see him move to second if the A's believe in an up-the-middle duo of Rocchio and Nick Allen.
The third piece, and this is again courtesy of Jeff Ellis, would be Logan Allen, Cleveland's #4 prospect and #62 on FanGraphs' top 100. He is also probably not the Logan Allen you're thinking of. There's another one.
Allen was Cleveland's second round pick in 2020, and the lefty starter just turned 24 in September.
Allen has three above average pitches and controls them well, which is right in the A's wheelhouse. His fastball sits 90-94, but his low 80's changeup is his most devastating weapon with "fade and sink" according to Pipeline.
This past season he made 14 starts in Triple-A, 13 in Double-A, and combined for a 4.75 ERA over 132 2/3 innings pitched. He finished with a solid 12.0 K/9, and his walk rate went up a little in Triple-A (4.4 per nine), but overall it sat at 3.5. He seems like a good bet to be a middle or back-end of the rotation fit.
According to Baseball Trade Values, that trade is roughly even value. BTV is also to be used as a tool, not fact, and since Jeff Ellis wanted to throw in one more player, we're going to let him.
With so many teams in on Murphy, it may take that extra player, or the right combination of players, to get the deal done.
He suggested either Cody Morris (Cleveland's #22) or Tyler Freeman (#6, #74 overall).
Freeman is a contact bat that made his big league debut in 2022, getting time at second, short, and third, and it was actually him getting called up that seemed to have made Ernie Clement available to the A's a month later. Freeman hit .247 with a .314 OBP in 86 plate appearances in Cleveland.
Morris is a 26-year-old pitcher that also made his big league debut with the Guardians down the stretch, and even pitched two scoreless innings in the postseason. Morris made five starts and got into seven games, totaling 22 2/3 innings and accruing a 2.28 ERA. His strikeout numbers went down in his small stint in the majors, from 12.8 per nine last season in Triple-A (36 2/3 IP) to 17.6 this season in Triple-A (15 1/3 IP) to 8.7 in Cleveland in 23 2/3 innings.
His walk rate, which had been at 2.8 per nine throughout the minors, jumped up to 4.6, too.
Morris has had a hard time staying healthy, but he could be that wild card piece that the A's like to go and get in trades.
The one thing Cleveland has going for them is they have such a talented farm system that they can offer so many different types of players, it's just a matter of coming to a consensus on which group would get the deal done.
It also doesn't hurt that Oakland is following Cleveland's lead offensively and targeting guys that make more contact. The Guardians have a stockpile of those, too.
Cleveland has the group of players to get this deal done, and outside of St. Louis, feel like the most logical landing spot for Sean Murphy.
Check out what trades to other teams that have expressed interest in the A's backstop could look like.