A's Should be Wary of This Texas Rangers Free Agent Starter

He had a breakout campaign in 2025, but some underlying metrics are cause for concern

Sep 25, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (51) throws the ball during the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The Texas Rangers seemed to unlock something in veteran right-hander Tyler Mahle this past season, as the 31-year-old turned in the best season of his career. The A's are now seen as one of seven potential suitors for his services this offseason by Jim Bowden of The Athletic.

Projected for a one-year, $17 million deal, that could end up being a bit more than the A's are looking to spend on a rotation piece, but his production from 2025 could make the splurge worth it.

Across 16 starts he held a 6-4 record and a 2.18 ERA (3.37 FIP) in 86 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate doesn't stand out at 19.1%, but he limited walks at an 8.4% clip. These days his fastball sits in the low-90s, but paired with his splitter, the two pitches work off of one another and led to a good bit of success.

His career ERA sits at 4.07, so the one-year projection makes sense to see if he can repeat his performance from last season. Mahle also missed three months in the middle of the season due to shoulder fatigue, so committing long-term may not be on the table with those concerns as well.

Jun 10, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (51) delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images | Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

For the A's specifically, there are a couple of other red flags in his profile that suggest his production may not be sustainable at that level.

First up, he held a .260 BABIP while the league average was .289. That's one that tends to even out year-over-year, and should lead to more hits being allowed in 2026. At the same time, his splitter was particularly effective, so one could dream on that rate staying below league average.

He also held a 4.9% home run to fly ball rate, which is extremely low. That could also be credited to him keeping the ball on the ground a decent amount with a 38.8% ground ball rate. He ranked in the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 69th percentile in average exit velocity.

May 7, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle (51) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The big one to look out for though is his left-on-base rate, which sat at 84.6%—by far a career high. The league average on that one was 72.3%, and that difference, along with the other factors, is why there is such a large discrepancy between his ERA and his FIP.

He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023, which limited his innings to 25 2/3 that season, and 12 2/3 the following year. He built up a bit to those 86 2/3 frames this past season, but he hasn't reached 100 innings since 2022. For a team like the A's that has postseason aspirations on their minds in 2026, they'll want more of a sure thing in a big signing.

Between all of these career-best numbers in places where more luck can sneak in that were much better than league average rates, on top of the injury time he's missed the last three years, Mahle may be one for the A's to avoid if they're looking to spend a little money in the rotation.

He could be a terrific pitcher in 2026 and beyond, but the fit just may not be there for the A's this offseason.