A's Third Base Projections
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The one spot in the A's batting order that doesn't have a certain player stationed there is at third base at the moment. It's a position we've talked about a number of times this offseason, and one that the A's apparently tried to address earlier this winter when they had a deal in place to acquire veteran Nolan Arenado before he nixed it with his no-trade clause.
With just a few weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, the A's are seemingly set to go with their internal options of Max Muncy, Darell Hernaiz and Brett Harris, unless they spend big to lure Eugenio Suárez for the role. That said, they haven't been connected to Suárez at any point this offseason, so it's not like that is necessarily the likely scenario.
So today, let's look at the three main internal options and how each of them projects for the upcoming season.
Projections for A's third base candidates
Only two clubs are projected to get less out of third base than the A's, and they are the rebuilding Washington Nationals and Colorado Rockies. If they were to add Suárez, the A's would be closer to the middle of the pack.
Here are the projections for Hernaiz, Muncy and Harris, with all of the data coming from FanGraphs Depth Charts.
PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | WAR | wOBA | BAT | BSR | FLD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Muncy | 371 | .239 | .296 | .392 | 0.9 | .300 | -5.2 | -0.3 | 0.3 |
Hernaiz | 105 | .264 | .327 | .373 | 0.3 | .309 | -0.7 | -0.1 | 0.2 |
Harris | 140 | .233 | .314 | .365 | 0.3 | .301 | -1.8 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
As you can see, they have Muncy getting the bulk of the innings at third base over the course of the year, and it's hard to disagree with that assessment. He is a former first-round selection of the A's and has the highest ceiling of the trio.
That said, the projected stats don't make a lot of sense as to why he'd be the one getting the playing time. While Depth Charts also has Hernaiz filling in at shortstop and at second base, third is where he's projected for most of his playing time.
Hernaiz has the better batting average by 25 points, the better on-base by 31 points, the higher wOBA, and is roughly on par with the glove. His WAR total is lower, but he's also projected for nearly a quarter of the playing time. Over the same 371 plate appearances as Muncy's projection, he'd be in line for nearly 1.1 WAR. That's a small, but not insignificant boost.
What the projections tell us
The projections are showing us that Muncy is the favorite to win the third base gig, but it should be close. This is in line with what we had earlier this offseason. They also seem to think that Hernaiz may be the better overall player, at least heading into 2026, so why isn't he the one getting the projected nod at the hot corner?
According to Baseball Savant, Hernaiz's arm strength ranks in the 19th percentile (79.4), which could lead to questions about him being able to make some of the longer throws. That said, he does seem to be the better defensive option—at least from what we've seen thus far—of the two. It's entirely possible that either player could take a big step forward defensively with an offseason of work.
Muncy's arm strength ranked in the 43rd percentile (83.5), so it's a bit closer to league average. That said, his defensive abilities overall graded out poorly, while Hernaiz was solid with the glove. This is going to be a spring battle that lasts throughout camp. This past season it was a late push from Muncy that vaulted him to the Opening Day roster, along with Zack Gelof's injury.
This year there will be a more permanent spot on the line.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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