Projecting A's Nick Kurtz After AL Rookie of the Year Campaign

After a remarkable rookie campaign, what will Nick Kurtz have in store for an encore?

Sep 28, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz (16) reacts after hitting a two-run home run against the Kansas City Royals during the eighth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images | Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

In a season filled with highlights, including a four-homer game at Houston in July, arguably his most impressive feat wasn't a single moment, but an accumulation of those moments. Sure, he launched a grand slam 493 feet in Sacramento—but he was also one of only three players to finish the year with an OPS above 1.000.

The other two players to achieve that feat were the MVPs of their leagues, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, two of the best players in baseball.

So what could Kurtz possibly having in store this season after winning the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2025?

Projecting Nick Kurtz

Sep 19, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz (16) in the batting cage before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

After being called up at the end of April, Kurtz ended up slugging 36 home runs while batting .290 with a .383 on-base percentage. He also walked 12.9% of the time, struck out 30.9% of the time, and still managed to drive home 86 RBI despite playing in just 117 games.

It was an incredible season, especially for someone that had been playing in college the year before.

So what can we expect from Kurtz this year? Well, pitchers will have a better sense of how to attack him this year, so there may be a little more resistance from the opposition. On the flip side, Kurtz also struggled mightily against left-handers, batting .197 with an 83 wRC+, and that figures to tick up a bit as well.

According to his Depth Charts projections, Kurtz is set to hit .261 with a .352 OBP, club another 36 homers, and bring home 99 RBI. He's also projected to walk at an 11.9% clip and strike out 28% of the time. All of that works out to a 137 wRC+, which is 37% above league average.

While the projections may not seem as high as some fans would like, you have to also remember that he is still just 22 years old (entering his age 23 season), and there will be a bit of a learning curve to become a consistent, feared hitter in the big leagues. Players pop up all the time to be on par with Judge and Ohtani, but what makes them great is that they're always at the top.

This will be a year that Kurtz will have to show that last season was no fluke and begin building up his own track record of success. If he does, his projected stats will look even more impressive at this time next year.

How Kurtz compares to other first basemen

Oct 29, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a solo home run during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers during game five of the 2025 MLB World Series at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images | Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

There is only one first baseman—Vladimir Guerrero Jr.—that is projected to have a better season than Kurtz. Depth Charts has him batting .295 with a .380 OBP, hitting 34 home runs, and finishing with a 149 wRC+.

Outside of Guerrero, Kurtz is in line with or slightly better than everyone. One first basemen that is near his level is Los Angeles Dodgers former World Series MVP Freddie Freeman, who they have at a 135 wRC+.

The other is former two-time MVP Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies, who is pegged to finish with a 134 wRC+. To be fair, both Harper and Freeman are a decade or more older than Kurtz, which also speaks to how impressive their careers have been, to have the staying power to be this productive well into their 30s.

If Nick Kurtz repeats what he did last season, the A's should be in a good spot to push for a postseason berth in 2026.