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What Can Blue Jays Expect From Ryu in 2023?
Hyun Jin Ryu’s signing in the winter of 2019 marked the Blue Jays’ official entrance into a competitive window.
His inaugural press conference was full of laughter. Flanked by general manager Ross Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and agent Scott Boras, Ryu smiled and introduced himself: “Hello, Canada. Bonjour!”
Ryu was locked in for four years and $80 million. Just 263 innings later, he was being eulogized by sportswriters. The COVID pandemic stole a chunk of Ryu’s prime, but the 35-year-old’s tenure in Toronto certainly wasn’t what either the team or the player had hoped for.
2020 was a magical year for Ryu, who twirled a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts and finished third in AL Cy Young voting. After that, something wasn’t right as he labored through 196 innings in 2021 and 2022 with a 4.55 ERA (97 ERA+). The lefty hit the injured list with a forearm issue after a June start at Rogers Centre and underwent Tommy John surgery two weeks later.
The latest news on Ryu is that he’s reportedly targeting a July 2023 return to action, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, putting him on the shorter side of the typical 12-18 months of recovery needed following TJ surgery. Ryu is now reportedly leaving Korea to train in the United States.
First off, a July return for Ryu would be remarkable. His injury history, which includes nearly two full years missed from 2015-2016 due to shoulder surgery and tendinitis, is exuberant, and a fast-tracked comeback from another major surgery in his mid-30s poses unique problems. But, for argument’s sake, let’s say Ryu can do it and he’s ready to pitch again in late July of 2023. What then?
With baseball and its erratic injuries, it’s hard to massage the crystal ball and project what a club’s roster will look like in late July, for example. In a best-case scenario, the entire Jays rotation is healthy, and either Mitch White or Yusei Kikuchi is successfully manning the fifth spot. Maybe that’s too optimistic, but let’s operate along those lines.
Ryu gives the Blue Jays nothing out of the bullpen. Toronto won’t consider that option. The Jays need Ryu built up as a starter, and that takes time. It also takes major-league innings, which might be hard to come by in an early August pennant/division race. Toronto won’t be cool plopping Ryu into a rotation spot out of nowhere, even if Kikuchi and White are struggling.
MLB allows pitchers to take a minor-league rehab assignment for up to 30 days. That’s where the club will build Ryu up. A few starts with the Triple A Bisons ought to give the Blue Jays front office an idea of how much juice their left-hander has remaining. At the same time, the club will likely also be wheeling and dealing at the trade deadline. The prospect of Ryu’s return certainly won’t be enough insurance to prevent Atkins from targeting pitching help.
So, once again, what are we left with?
Perhaps Ryu serves as a bridge guy, entering after an opener goes one or two innings. Maybe he’s a depth starter and does what White did last year: pitch the first three or four innings of a game and hit the showers. This is also all assuming Ryu doesn’t hit a snag during his rehab or pack it up and head home. Although Atkins has never acknowledged or disputed the existence of such a clause, there may also be some injury insurance to help the Blue Jays recover lost money in that situation.
If Ryu can go, his teammates will want him back. He’s a jovial presence in the clubhouse and a surprising influence on some of the younger pitchers, particularly Alek Manoah. If he can’t, his Blue Jays career will be over, and he may never pitch again.
Only time will tell how Ryu’s recovery goes, but if he’s healthy, built up, and ready to go (and Toronto has roster space for him), we could see big No. 99 don the blue and white one last time.
