Rotation Stability: Toronto's Newest Strength

Blue Jays starters have allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of the last 15 games

Weeks into the 2021 season, the Toronto Blue Jays were on their eighth and ninth starting pitchers. Tommy Milone was called on to make spot starts and T.J. Zeuch was asked to face the Yankees multiple times.

Two months later, the Blue Jays just completed their third straight turn through the rotation with the same five starting pitchers. In 11 of their last 15 games, Toronto starters have held the opposition to three or fewer runs. While Vlad Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays offense continue to mash, a stabilized rotation has become the team’s newest strength.

Alek Manoah fell behind Christian Vazquez early in the second inning Monday, losing two fastballs high and skipping another near the dirt. After his third-straight miss he took the ball back from Reese McGuire and exhaled. With two fastballs he drew the count full, and two foul-offs later Manoah induced a soft groundout.

The next inning he fell behind 3-0 to Bobby Dalbec with two squeezed should-be strikes. Manoah once again worked back full with a his fastball and slider and with the count juiced he dropped another slider to freeze Boston’s first basemen. Dalbec watched the last three pitches go by, the only called strikes of the at bat, before taking a seat. When he falls behind, Manoah has one mentality: 

"Just come hit it," he said.

The right-hander’s control wasn’t dialed in Monday, and he was rarely working ahead early, but Manoah finished with just one walk, and more importantly just one run against. As the game moved on the rookie's control got better, his pitch selection widened, and his velocity ticked up. The sixth inning, striking out the side against the heart of Boston’s order, was Manoah’s best frame of the night.

“There was no room for error and he was outstanding," Montoyo said. "He’s not scared.”

For the first time in years, the Blue Jays have rotation stability. Through 64 games this season, Toronto has registered 21 quality starts, in all last season they threw just 11. Pitchers not named Hyun Jin Ryu dealt only four quality starts in 2020, and this season the Blue Jays have four different starters who have achieved the feat.

For the first month of the season Toronto’s rotation rarely worked deep into games, with Ryu being the only arm relied upon for consistent length. But now, with the bullpen struggling, the sixth (and sometimes seventh) innings are not foreign territory, and the rotation has eased the workload of an injured and overworked pen.

The newfound rotation security affords the Blue Jays the opportunity to address the bullpen internally. With five performing starters at the MLB level, Toronto can pull from their rotation depth in the minors, promoting a stretched out top prospect, or two. They can survive a minor injury or Steven Matz COVID-IL stint with a bullpen day or spot start and commit to one of Thomas Hatch or Nate Pearson in the bullpen.

Most of all, a performing rotation helps Toronto win baseball games. The Jays fell short Monday night, but Manoah’s six innings of one-run ball kept them in it — without it two outs, top of the ninth, Guerrero Jr. at the plate wasn't even in play. Toronto’s lineup ran out of runs after a Sunday 18-spot, but most nights it won't be hard to win games if starts like Monday’s continuing to become the norm.