Despite Slow Start the Blue Jays Still Have a Very Real Shot at the AL East
The Blue Jays are currently looking up at the Yankees (21-16) and Red Sox (20-19) in the AL East and have done themselves no favors with a 4-6 record over their last 10 games.
There are an abundance of negatives to Toronto's slightly below average start. Their -36 run differential is the eighth-worst in the league and their lowly performance at home has fed directly into that struggle. Their 11-8 record at Rogers Centre is around league average, but opponents have outscored them by 11 runs at their home ballpark. The Jays have an 8-14 record against team with a record above .500 and they are tied with the Pirates and White Sox for least home runs hit in all of MLB (26). In most cases, Toronto's offense has collectively looked overmatched at the plate.
Statistics may show that the Blue Jays have no business being in any type of playoff position even in a young season, but poor competition has not been punished in the American League early on. Only seven teams have 20+ wins and six teams, including Toronto, have failed to pull out more than four wins in their last 10 games.
Toronto entered Opening Day with a 43.6% chance to make the playoffs and those odds have dropped to 25.4% according to FanGraphs. Other teams with sub-.500 records have been given a higher chance to play in the postseason, but the New York Yankees (21-16) have the lowest win total of any division leader entering play Apr. 9.
The Blue Jays' 5-11 record over their last 16 games is far from encouraging, but with almost every bat off to a slow start, there is reason to believe a back-to-earth stretch is in the cards for Toronto's most prolific players.
Which Blue Jay Needs to Fix the Team's Offense?
Anthony Santander signed a five-year, $92.5 million contract to play up north after crushing 44 home runs with the Orioles in 2024, but is off to a freezing cold start to his Blue Jays tenure. His .196/.275/.336 slashline matches his 2018 numbers almost to a tee and is concerning for a power-dependent such as Santander. The 30-year-old ranks sixth in all of baseball with 110 homers since 2022.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. started the season as a pending free agent before inking a 14-year, $500 million extension to stay as the face of the Blue Jays on Apr. 10. The 26-year-old slugger struggled through the middle of April with an uncharacteristic .741 OPS before hitting his first home run of the season on Apr. 19.
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Dalton Rice covers multiple MLB teams as well as Tulane and Clemson for On Sports Illustrated. He graduated from Quinnipiac University with a bachelor’s in journalism in 2022 and is a passionate Red Sox fan.