After the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline, Atlanta's draft class looks better than ever
The Atlanta Braves have a reputation for being a pitching-heavy organization, and that was before this year's draft.
I mean, it's warranted, right? Seemingly every single season, Atlanta breaks out a new hot pitcher like Kyle Wright, who went on the lead MLB in wins in 2022 with 21, or Spencer Strider, who currently leads all of baseball in total strikeouts, strikeout rate, and winning percentage.
Reviewing recent draft classes, Atlanta's gone heavily for pitching, and they've been pretty successful with it: 2020 saw three pitchers among Atlanta's four picks, and the trio of Spencer Strider (4th round), Bryce Elder (5th), and Jared Shuster (1st) have all made the bigs and made an impact.
2021 saw AJ Smith-Shawver (7th) and Dylan Dodd (3rd), who have already made the bigs, Spencer Schwellenbach (2nd) looking good in his return from Tommy John, and 1st rounder Ryan Cusick be an integral part of the Matt Olson trade with Oakland.
Several of 2022's picks are already some of the top prospects in Atlanta's system, although that class has been hit particularly hard by arm injuries.
Atlanta doubled down in 2023, with eight of their first ten picks being pitchers, including Top 50 talents Hurston Waldrep (Florida) and Cade Kuehler (Campbell).
And as the trade deadline just showed us, competent pitching is more valuable than ever.
Outside of two generationally-great pitchers on the backsides of their careers in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, no top pitchers were moved. Some of the names were big, yes: Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Jack Flaherty, but the names were bigger than the production. Lance Lynn has an 6.32 ERA, while Giolito is sitting at 4.36 and Flaherty is 4.43.
And yet, they each drew talented prospects in return when traded.
Lance Lynn drew a Major League outfielder in Trayce Thompson, as well as promising starting pitching prospect Nick Nastrini and minor leaguer Jordan Leisure.
Lucas Giolito drew Top 100 prospect C Edgar Quero, as well as promising left-hander Ky Bush.
Jack Flaherty saw Top 100 prospect Cesár Prieto moved, as well as toolsy minor leaguer Drew Rom.
Even reliever deals saw higher than expected prices - Jordan Hicks went from St. Louis to Toronto for two pitchers, one of which (Sam Robberse) is already a top five prospect in the Cardinals system (and they picked up two more top prospects in the Jordan Montgomery & Chris Stratton deal, P Tekoah Roby and INF Thomas Saggese).
Meanwhile, the hitters on the market saw much smaller returns. The best hitter available, Nationals 3B Jaimer Candelario, was a top-five third baseman in baseball (128 OPS+ and 3.1 WAR this season) and went for two flawed prospects, P DJ Herz and light-hitting SS Kevin Made. OF Mark Canha went from the Mets to the Brewers for a long-shot starting pitcher prospect, Justin Jarvis. Tommy Pham went from New York to Arizona for a 17 year-old lottery ticket international signing.
The valuations of non-star hitters in trades has never been lower, and the valuations of pitchers that are merely competent has never been higher.
And so Atlanta's focused on drafting and developing pitchers. Some of them get traded for big league pieces - see Bryse Wilson, or Ryan Cusick, or Sean Newcomb - and some of them make the team, in either the bullpen or the rotation.
The average MLB team uses 11 different starting pitchers during the course of the regular season - Atlanta's already used 12 in 2023, not counting the three relievers that have been credited for a start when working as an opener.
Atlanta was able to stand pat from a starting pitching perspective at the deadline because of that rotation depth. After Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, and Bryce Elder, Atlanta has seven different options for that 5th starter role once Kyle Wright returns, which is (tentatively) scheduled for September.
Smart teams are trading for hitters and developing pitching. Atlanta's on the leading edge of this strategy. We've seen Atlanta bring in two all-stars in Matt Olson and Sean Murphy for a handful of (mostly) pitching prospects that haven't panned out.
Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office has the ammunition to keep this team in contention for a long time, thanks to shrewd drafting and a deep understanding of the player market in major league baseball.
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