Are the Atlanta Braves going to pick up the Charlie Morton 2024 option?
Father Time is undefeated.
But maybe, just maybe, Charlie Morton can continue to hold him off.
The 39 year-old veteran doesn't have the wear and tear on his body of other major league pitchers his age, owing to his late "blooming" - outside of one season in PIttsburgh, 2011, he never went over 160 innings in a season until he broke out as a first-time All-Star at the age of 34 in 2018 for the Houston Astros.
But since then, he's been a machine: Four straight seasons (excluding 2020) of 170+ innings, mostly with an ERA under 3.50 and more than ten strikeouts per nine innings.
There were some warning signs last year, his 2nd of 3 consecutive one-year deals to pitch in Atlanta, that maybe Morton was slowing down a bit as he approached 40:
- 63 walks, the 2nd highest total of his career
- A 4.34 ERA, his highest in a full season (again excluding 2020) since 2015
- A career-high 28 home runs
And yet, Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos gave Morton another one year, $20M extension, this one with a team option for 2024 at the same $20M figure.
Only five pitchers signed a contract last offseason for an Annual Average Value (AAV) equal to or more than Morton's $20M: Justin Verlander (43.3M), Jacob DeGrom (37M), Carlos Rodon (27M), Chris Bassitt (21M), and Clayton Kershaw (20M).
Continuity matters to these Braves, and the organization felt he was a good for for the 2023 roster, so they ponied up to keep Morton in the organization. So how is it working out?
Morton's performance is slipping this season
On the 2023 season, Morton is 12-10 with a 3.54 ERA in 24 starts, striking out 146 and walking 66 on the season. His strikeouts per walk ratio, 2.21, is one of the lowest of his career going back to his days with the Pittsburgh Pirates in his mid-20s. His 10 losses are two away from his career high, and his walk total is only eleven away from his career-high (77) with roughly six more starts to go.
More significantly: The Braves are losing his starts because of him - Atlanta averages 5.49 runs of support for Morton. His wins are mostly due to the absurd run support, as well; he has ten losses on the season and is 2-9 when Atlanta scores less than six runs.
He's rallied recently, with two consecutive scoreless outings in his last two starts, both Atlanta wins. But even those have caveats: There were against the New York Mets and Yankees, and he walked seven batters against the Mets in those five innings.
(That Yankees start, though? One walk and ten strikeouts in six innings. Absolute gem.)
But what other options are there?
That's the complicating issue here - there aren't a lot of good options projected for free agency. The pitching class isn't that great as of now, and so bidding is expected to be higher on the top options (Cubs SP Marcus Stroman, if he opts out; Rangers lefties Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney; Tigers lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, if he opts out).
Complicating matters is the fact that Atlanta, for the first time, had an estimated tax payroll of $245M, putting them into the luxury tax and paying an estimated $2.4M in tax penalties. The competitive balance tax threshold increases from 2023's $233M to $237M for 2024, but that still doesn't get Atlanta below the threshold. As a first time payor, they were only charged a 20% tax on the overage, but a repeat payor would face a 30% tax on the overage.
With some tough financial decisions coming soon (namely one Max Fried), Atlanta may want to dip below the tax threshold for a season to reset their obligations.
There's a few ways Atlanta could play this:
1) Pick up the club option for $20M for Morton for 2024
Stick with the devil you know, not the devil you don't. It'll be hard to get a quality starter for less than Morton's $20M, so go ahead and retain him with the hope that the recent success is a sign he's gotten back to basics and can still twirl it for one more year.
2) Decline the option and attempt to re-sign Morton for less
This one's tricky, but I'd wager Atlanta attempts this. Morton lives in Bradenton, FL, and reportedly wants to stay with a team in the Southeast so he's closer to home during the season. Despite Spotrac determining Morton's free agency value to be $25M, he'd probably take less to stay in Atlanta.
(Side note: Those player comps are rough - Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright, and Zach Greinke).
3) Decline the option and explore the free agency market
Atlanta might explore the free agent market anyway, if they can't swing a trade using some of their other assets (and that article is coming early next week.)
Also, there's always the possibility of Charlie Morton retiring. He will turn 40 in November, and if he suffers an injury (or if Atlanta wins it all), he may decide to hang them up and call it a career.
There's a lot of different ways this can play out. Luckily, the Braves front office have between now and November to let Uncle Charlie make his case for what they should do.
What do you want Atlanta to do? Let us know; all the ways to contact us are below.
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