NL East Preview: The Nationals are still in the rebuild

The NL East didn't quite go according to chalk last season.

Yes, the Atlanta Braves won the division, as expected, and the Philadelphia Phillies had a good season and made the postseason, as expected, but the Miami Marlins came in 3rd place and snagged one of the last Wild Card spots for October.

No, the bottom of the division had a team no one expected there - the New York Mets, who absolutely collapsed like a wet paper sack - and a team that everyone expected there, the Washington Nationals.

Washington held off New York for the worst record in the division last season, coming in at 71-91, but that luck didn't translate to a high draft pick as they were ineligible for a lottery pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. With the rebuild in full swing, has Washington made enough offseason moves to get back into contention, or are they ticketed for another 5th place finish in 2024?

Key departures:

Free agents: OF Carl Edwards Jr.
Player opt-outs: None
Club option declined: OF Victor Robles (later re-signed)
Non-tendered: RP Andrés Machado

Not a lot of players left the Nationals in the offseason, primarily because most of them aren't yet at free agency. It's a very young team, with only one starting position player (1B Joey Meneses, 31) and two starting pitchers (Patrick Corbin, 34, & Trevor Williams, 31) over the age of 30.

No, Washington returns most of a roster that was outscored by 145 runs last season and is hoping another year of growth and development from their young players can help them achieve better results in 2024.

Key additions:

Signed as free agents: INF/OF Nick Senzel (Reds), RP Dylan Floro (Twins, Marlins)
Acquired via trade: NONE
Claimed off waivers: NONE

Washington didn't make very many moves in free agency, either, preferring to rely on their young core to contend. They did add the versatile Nick Senzel on a one-year deal, who slots in as the Opening Day third baseman but has experience at second and all three outfield positions.

No, Washington relying on another step up from young guys like CJ Abrams and DH Jake Alu, as well as potentially the addition of Rule 5 infielder Nasim Nuñez from Miami, to improve that win/loss record in 2024.

UPDATE: The Nationals reportedly agreed to a one year, $5M deal with free agent OF Joey Gallo on Tuesday afternoon.

Possible prospect promotions:

Of course, there's also potential prospect promotions that could impact things for Washington.

Some of the organizations's top prospects include outfielders James Wood and Dylan Crews, as well as third baseman Brady House and starting pitcher Cade Cavalli.

While House (back) and Cavalli (Tommy John surgery) don't project to be options for most of 2024, Crews and Wood both spent the end of last season in AA Harrisburg and could theoretically be options as soon as the All-Star Break if they hit out of the gates in AAA Rochester.

Remaining team needs:

Left field, designated hitter, starting pitcher

The FanGraphs depth chart isn't quite as bleak as the Miami one, but it's close. Stone Garrett and Jake Alu are your LF and DH options, respectively, while the back end of the rotation is manned by two over-30 pitchers with ERAs over 5.00 last season in Patrick Corbin (5.20) and Trevor Williams (5.55).

(Fun fact - Atlanta supposedly tried to trade Marcell Ozuna for Patrick Corbin straight up last season. Sometimes the best trades are the ones you don't make.)

It's actually not a bad bullpen, with closer Kyle Finnegan returning and joined by Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey, and Dylan Floro. If the team's still out of it at the deadline, each of those relievers is both over 30 and has team control left (except Floro), so they could be interesting trade pieces at the deadline.

UPDATE: The addition of Joey Gallo helps with both the left field and DH situation, but more work still needs to be done.

2024 outlook:

Sportsbooks: O/U 65.5 wins & +10000 to win the NL East, per FanDuel
Projections: 59-103, per FanGraphs

Give me the under here. I just don't see where this team can keep up with last season's 71 win pace, especially with most of the top prospects probably not coming up (if at all) until the end of the season.

The offense is worse, the pitching could be incrementally better, and the defense is merely average. I'm comfortable taking the over.

Official prediction: I'm taking the under on 65.5 and predicting a 5th place finish.

Should the Atlanta Braves be worried about Washington in 2024?

No. Barring some sort of stellar leaps in production from multiple players, they just don't have the offense to compete in the division with the Braves and Phillies.

Other NL East previews:

Miami Marlins - What are the Miami Marlins doing, exactly?
New York Mets - Wednesday
Philadelphia Phillies - Thursday

Alex Anthopoulos hasn't lost a trade in six years

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