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    Previewing Atlanta's 2025 pitching rotation

    Now that the Braves have extended Chris Sale, there's some certainty around the top of the rotation

    If there's a constant amongst the fanbase when discussing the Atlanta Braves this offseason, it's been worry about the future. 

    Specifically, 2025. 

    We're all aware that 2025 is the last year of contractural control for both Max Fried and Charlie Morton, with the lefty Fried expected to depart in free agency and the righty Morton a retirement risk, as he turns 41 just weeks after the season ends and will have exhausted his club option, becoming an unrestricted free agent. 

    But yesterday's extension for weekend trade acquisition Chris Sale has bought Atlanta some breathing room, as it secures his services for 2025 and potentially 2026, if his club option is exercised. 

    So with that in mind, let's run down what the rotation might look like in 2025, barring any surprise free agent signings (or a Max Fried return). 

    SP1: Spencer Strider

    Sep 30, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) throws against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Truist Park.

    Strider led all of MLB in 2023 with 281 strikeouts

    As long as he's healthy, Strider should be Atlanta's #1 pitcher. The 2020 4th rounder out of Clemson has become one of MLB's preeminent strikeout artists, leading all of baseball in both total strikeouts (281) and strikeout rate (13.5 K/9). Strider actually broke John Smoltz's 1996 team record for strikeouts in a season (276) in his final start, September 30th against Washington. 

    And to think he could be even better - Strider's Fielding Independent Pitching, a version of ERA that measures only what pitchers can control (strikeouts, walks, and homers), sat at an NL-leading 2.85. There's a reason he's the 2024 Cy Young favorite for the National League as of today. 

    SP2: Chris Sale

    Sep 3, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale (41) pitches during the third inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium.

    Sale's still one of MLB's preeminent strikeout artists

    The newest addition to Atlanta's rotation, Sale's a virtual lock to be here in 2025 by virtue of the contract extension he signed yesterday, guaranteeing him a $22M contract for his age 36 season. One of the most dominant pitchers of his generation in his 20s with the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox, Sale's looking to rebound from a health perspective to give Atlanta quality innings for the next two seasons. 

    SP3: Hurston Waldrep

    Hurston Waldrep in A+ Rome

    Waldrep had the fastest climb through the minors of any 2023 drafted pitcher

    Here's where the speculation begins. Waldrep, Atlanta's first round pick in 2023 out of the University of Florida, had the most strikeouts of any 2023 draftee in his professional debut, reaching AAA Gwinnett for a start before the end of the season. 

    Owing to his polish coming out of college, where his splitter was seen as one of the most dominant pitches of the entire draft class, as well as how rapidly he's climbed through the system and his reputation for handling higher innings workloads (131 between college and minor leagues last year), Waldrep feels like the best bet of currently rostered pitchers to take that leap into the middle of the rotation. 

    SP4: AJ Smith-Shawver

    Atlanta Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (62) makes his MLB debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks on June 4, 2023, at Chase Field in Phoenix.

    The youngster debuted in MLB at twenty years old

    The phenom. Smith-Shawver absolutely rocketed through the farm system last year, starting the season in High-A Rome and debuting for the major league team just six weeks later. He's arguably one of, if not the best athlete in the system, and possesses the work ethic and propensity for rapid development that you just can't bet against. 

    We have him behind Waldrep solely from an experience standpoint - Smith-Shawver's just turned 21 and is entering what would be his junior year of college. From a workload and experience standpoint, he hasn't been a pitcher for as long and isn't as physically accustomed to the workloads of a major league regular, but if anyone's able to compress that development timeframe, it's him. 

    SP5: Ian Anderson 

    Anderson started game three of the 2021 World Series at only 23 years old

    Anderson started game three of the 2021 World Series at only 23 years old

    More uncertainty. We're giving the fifth spot to returning Ian Anderson, who is expected to retake the mound this summer after Tommy John surgery last year. The 2016 1st rounder, who started 52 games in MLB before his 25th birthday, has a 4-0 record and 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts, culminating in five innings of hitless baseball in game three of the 2021 World Series against the Houston Astros. 

    First man up: Bryce Elder

    Sep 2, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder (55) throws a pitch against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the third inning at Dodger Stadium.

    Elder made the 2nd most starts for Atlanta in 2023, taking the ball 31 times in the regular season

    It's a bit of a hot take, but we have 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder as the "first man up" should Atlanta need another starter for the 2025 season. Elder had a phenomenal first half of the 2023 season, with a 2.97 ERA in his first 18 starts, faltered down the stretch, putting up a 5.11 ERA in thirteen starts post-ASB. 

    His omission from the rotation is more about the "stuff", though - Atlanta's obviously prioritized swing-and-miss recently, both from free agents (Reynaldo López) and trade acquisitions (Chris Sale, Aaron Bummer). Elder's a sinkerballer, relying on weak groundball contact to get outs, with a fastball that occasionally drops below 90 mph. There's absolutely a role for those guys on your staff - that's the type of profile that can eat regular season innings from the back of a rotation - but given the option, it feels like Atlanta would rather go with better "stuff". 

    Other candidates for 2025 starts

    There's multiple groups of guys here. Some you already know and have seen at the major league level - Huascar Ynoa, Dylan Dodd, Darius Vines and Allan Winans. 

    The others are prospects that have yet to debut, but are guys that Atlanta's high on that could be ready for MLB debuts by 2025: Spencer Schwellenbach, Lucas Braun, Drue Hackenberg and Cade Kuehler. Any number of them could be ready to give MLB hitters a shot come the 2025 season. 

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