Signs May Point to Braves Getting a Better Grant Holmes After Recovery

The Atlanta Braves starter had some auspicious updates after his lastest bullpen session that could spell a step forward next season

The Braves starter lit up the radar gun in his latest bullpen session | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Grant Holmes was given the green light to join the starting rotation to start the 2026 season. So far, the Atlanta Braves right-hander is making that decision look wise.

According to MLB.com's Mark Bowman, Holmes' fastball was sitting at 95 mph on Saturday. This puts him right around where his average velocity sat last season (94.5 mph).

What stood out was the notion that his injury was pre-existing and the injury potentially didn't occur the day he exited with forearm tightness back in July. Since his velocity is about the same, there is certinaly a case for that to be made.

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In his most recent outing on July 26, his fastball maxed out at 95.5 mph. The average velocity of his fastball was virtually the same as it was the season before (94.5 vs 94.6). If he's been pitching while injured for some time, maybe there is more to Holmes than we all originally thought.

The consistent velocity reflects that he was pitching through an injury and didn't even know it for a time. Now, we'll get to see what he can do when he's healthy.

How much better? It's hard to say. Since we're discussing velocity, let's get one talking point out of the way.

There is no guarantee that his velocity is going to climb higher. It's better to assume it won't. It could, in theory. But that's leaning into a misnomer that comes with healing a UCL, mainly through the route of Tommy John surgery, which he didn't undergo.

If he sees an increase in his velocity after this process, it would be more likely because he would have seen improvements in his strength and conditioning. Changes to his routine have likely come now that he knows he had a partially torn UCL, but we don't know how it will impact his velocity yet. Any potential mechanical changes that could impact velocity haven't been reported either.

Looking at velocity was simply a way to get the conversation started. It's time to look at an entirely different angle.

Now that he's been able to rehab his injury, perhaps we can see a more effective Grant Holmes than we did before. Being a little more pain-free could lead to improved performance, which doesn't require a change in velocity to happen. We'll have to ask Holmes how much different he feels before and after, but it's a safe presumption that he's in a better spot than before.

Last season, Holmes had a 3.99 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 22 games, 21 starts. All things considered, while not knowing exactly when he tore his UCL, he certainly managed some efficacy when hurt. This injury just caught up with him.

Maybe we'll some improved command and an overall better season. It's certainly possible. The Braves are impressed with how he's looked. As of now, we'll get the chance to find out the type of Holmes we'll see in 2026.