Vaughn Grissom's ultimately going to play left field or get traded by Atlanta

In retrospect, it wasn't really a shortstop battle in spring training, was it?

This February, the popular talk was whether Vaughn Grissom or Braden Shewmake would win the starting shortstop job, and when you look back at it, it's a bit funny.

Shewmake's always struggled to make an offensive impact, even in the minors - entering this season, his best numbers in the upper minors was the .259/.316/.399 mark he put up in 2022 in AAA Gwinnett. He maxed out at 12 homers in a single season, coming in 2021 in AA Mississippi. Was Atlanta really going to give the SS job to a below-average hitter who'd bat 9th and have a negative impact at the plate when they had aspirations of a trip to the World Series?

And so we thought it'd be Vaughn Grissom winning the job. He's got some pop, can get hot at the plate, and was "getting better" in the field. All offseason, the talk was about his trips to New Orleans to work with Ron Washington on defense, week-long visits that happened three times over the course of the offseason.

"Wash'll get him ready", we said. "In Ron Washington we trust."

Yeah, about that.

Vaughn struggled on defense last year when he filled in for injured second baseman Ozzie Albies, committing four errors in 49 starts and grading out as -5 Outs Above Average, per Statcast. That wasn't the lowest figure in the league, because OAA is a rate stat, but by "Success Rate Added", his -3% figure was 5th worst amongst second basemen last year.

He struggled even more this year when he filled in for injured shortstop Orlando Arcia, committing six errors in just 18 starts, grading out as -7 OAA. His -10% Success Rate Added is the lowest mark for all shortstops with at least 25 defensive attempts.

But here's the real tell that Atlanta doesn't trust him defensively:

In the fifth inning of yesterday's game against San Francisco, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, Giants manager Dave Kapler brought in a lefty reliever, Scott Alexander, to face the lefty-hitting Nicky Lopez, who was 0-2 in the game and 1-8 in the series thus far.

Did Snitker send the righty-hitting Grissom out as a pinch-hitter, like he does with Eddie Rosario when Kevin Pillar comes to bat and the lefty starter has been removed for a right-handed reliever?

Nope. He left Nicky Lopez in the game. And it paid off, yeah, because Lopez hit an RBI single that Travis d'Arnaud single-handedly willed into a run with quite possibly the single most athletic play an Atlanta catcher's ever made.

But the conventional play, and the analytical play, is to go for the handedness-matchup and make the substitution.

The problem with that is that Atlanta would be forced to play Grissom in the infield for four innings on defense, and obviously that's not something they wanted to do. Grissom made only two starts for Ozzie Albies, and he hit well - 3-8 with a double and a triple, bringing in two runs and only striking out once.

The only reason you don't make that pinch-hitting switch is if you don't want to live with the defensive consequences after.

Grissom went back to Gwinnett today, and I'd expect him to continue the middle infield rotation with Shewmake for the rest of the season.

But once the season's over, either Atlanta's going to move him to left field (since Eddie Rosario's got only a club option for 2024 remaining on his contract) or move him in a trade for pitching help.

And even moving him to left field isn't guaranteed to be the best move, as Grissom doesn't have the traditional power profile most major league left fielders have - his career slugging in the majors is .407 and even in the minors is only .474.

If the Braves, who are obviously concerned about future pitching depth enough to bring back Kolby Allard, claim Yonny Chirinos off of waivers and manipulate Michael Soroka's service time, decide that they need to move someone to bolster the rotation like they've done in the last two offseasons to bolster 1st base and catcher, I'd expect Grissom to be the centerpiece of the package.

But either way, it appears his days in the middle infield are all but over.

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