Advanced Analytics Hint Jordan Walker Could Soon Become Star

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker has some of the highest potential in the league. That's the truth now and it was the truth when he debuted in the big leagues a few years ago.

But the young outfielder hasn't turned that potential into production. He's worth -2.7 WAR across 279 big league games while posting an 88 OPS+. Each season, his OPS+ has dropped until it was at 66 last year.

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Eno Sarris of The Athletic recently did a deep dive into Walker's swing and the advanced analytics behind it. Sarris suggested that Walker could be on the verge of a breakout season because of the advanced metrics, notably his Power+ and Contact+ numbers.

"Over at Driveline baseball, their baseball operations department solved this problem by creating two separate bat path grades, one for the ability to make contact (Contact+) and one for the ability to slug the ball (Power+)," Sarris wrote in order to provide a bit of an explanation on these two metrics.

Jordan Walker's advanced stats look better than his box score stats

St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walke — St. Louis Cardinals Jordan Walker signs autographs before ball before spring training game against the Washington at the Ballpark of the Palm Beaches in West Palm Beach, Florida on March 4, 2023. | GREG LOVETT/THE PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

"Walker swung the bat nearly 79 mph late last season, and just on Bat Speed alone, the 23-year-old should have had more success hitting for power by now," Sarris wrote. "The path is flat, which is why he’s hit grounders, but there are other guys with flat bat paths and this much Bat Speed who have hit a ton of homers, like Caminero.

"In any case, there’s enough raw clay here to keep looking at Walker, and then there’s the news he spent the whole offseason trying to work on his path. Don’t give up on him yet even if the first 1,000 plate appearances haven’t fit what the model expects."

Walker's Power+ sits at 69, which is only a few ticks behind players like Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero. Walker's Contact+ is a 51, which is comparable to Caminero, too.

The young Cardinals outfielder has some of the best bat speed in the game, but he hasn't made the adjustments to the big leagues. These advanced stats, paired with the bat speed, mean he has a lot of potential.

But at some point, the Cardinals need his potential to turn into production. These advanced stats show that the Cardinals shouldn't give up on him yet, but that time is coming soon. If he struggles again this season, it wouldn't be shocking to see it be his last in St. Louis.

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