Can Madison Bumgarner be Traded?
Madison Bumgarner's tenure with the Diamondbacks has turned into the worst free agent signing in franchise history. Signed to a five year, 85 million dollar contract prior to the 2020 season, he just concluded a season in which he went 7-15 with a 4.88 ERA in 30 starts. In 65 starts with the club he is 15-29, with a 4.98 ERA. While there have been a few moments and highlights here and there, the entire body of work has added up to crushing disappointment for both the pitcher and the organization.
With two years, $37 million remaining on his contract questions swirl around his future with the team. Mike Hazen was asked recently if Bumgarner's spot in the rotation was guaranteed, here is the full response that was given:
"The season was a little bit challenging; I think in the first half of the season he was one of our better starting pitchers from a results standpoint, and the second half maybe didn’t go as well. We have increased the level of competition that exists within the organization in these spots. I do think incumbency probably matters when you’re going into spring training. Especially with the younger guys that we have. But if the expectation next year is going to be moving the ball forward from where we are right now, we are going to be making decisions that we need to make as we need to make them. "
Posed the same question, manager Torey Lovullo said much the same thing:
“I want him to [be part of the rotation]. I want Bum to be one of our five coming out of spring training next year. But it’s competitive, it’s very competitive. I think competitiveness eliminates complacency. I want guys to come in ready to go. We set a standard here, we had one on one meetings, and we told every player you better be ready to go in spring training , nothing is guaranteed, not one person. "
These comments seem quite clear. Bumgarner must improve and earn his spot, or the team may be moving on from him sooner rather than later. Nick Piecoro of AZCentral recently reported that he expects Bumgarner to have a short leash.
Recently Bob Nightengale of USA today took it a step further, reporting that the Diamondbacks are hoping that Madison Bumgarner gets off to a good start next year so that he then can be traded.
So what is Bumgarner's trade value?
The first thing you need to assess is if Bumgarner were a free agent this off season, what kind of contract would he likely command. While the answer to that is not knowable, we can estimate. Over the last three seasons he has produced approximately 0.5 WAR per season. One WAR is presumed to be worth approximately $8-10 million on the free agent market. So a team willing to take a chance on Bumgarner probably would not value him at more than $4-5 million per season, or $8-10 million over two seasons.
With two years, $37 million remaining on his contract, the best case scenario for the Diamondbacks then is they would need to absorb between $27-29 million of his contract and only be able to get back a low level, token minor league player in return.
Hence the speculation that they may wish to see how he does early in the season. If he has success, his trade value may rise a bit and the team might not need to absorb quite so much of his salary. However the flaw in that thought process should be obvious. If he's pitching well, there is a greater chance the team will be in a competitive position for a post season spot. It might be difficult at that moment to then pull the trigger on such a trade.
If he's not pitching well, and his trade value drops to zero, then the next obvious choice would simply be to release him and give those innings to a younger pitcher. In that case the Diamondbacks would have to pay the full remainder of his contract in any case.
There is a third option. The Diamondbacks could include a minor league prospect of some regard and perceived value along with Bumgarner, thus increasing the value of the trade package and reducing the amount of money the Diamondbacks would need to absorb. Depending on the prospect included, that amount could be reduced as much as $5-10 million. Suddenly the team could find itself in a position where instead of just saving $8-10 million, they might be saving $15-20 million.
Such a trade would only make sense during the off-season however, as the club could then use $15-20 million savings to sign a free agent or two that would help plug other holes. That's assuming of course the team would invest the savings to improve the major league roster.
This kind of trade would not have been advisable in the past, as the Diamondbacks prospect pool was shallow. That is no longer the case. It would not be advisable for the team to include any of their top ten prospects, but not all top ten lists are created equal. The Diamondbacks have a number of prospects just outside that top ten list that would make other team's top 10 and those other teams might highly value.
This is just one of the many thorny issues the Diamondbacks must navigate this offseason as they look to improve the bullpen, add a right handed bat, and add some more veteran presence in the clubhouse.
