Diamondbacks 2022 Season Player Reviews: Merrill Kelly
2022 Contract: $5,250,000, First year of a three-year extension
| Games | Innings | Record | ERA | FIP | Avg WAR | BABIP | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
33 | 200.1 | 13-8 | 3.37 | 3.65 | 3.4 | .269 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 8.0 |
97 | 573 | 36-35 | 3.96 | 4.07 | 8.3 | .285 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 7.8 |
*Note: Avg. WAR shown above is the average of Baseball Reference and Fangraphs WAR
2022 Diamondbacks Season Reviews
SEASON REVIEW
Most Diamondbacks fans are familiar with Merrill Kelly's story. The Arizona Native and alumni of ASU and Desert Mountain High School was taken by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 8th round of the 2010 amateur draft. He spent five years with that organization. However when they decided to convert him to a reliever Kelly decided he did not want to give up on being a starting pitcher. Instead he went overseas to pitch in South Korea. Kelly spent four years there developing himself as a dependable starter in the high octane run environment of the KBO, making 119 starts and throwing nearly 730 innings.
Signed as a free agent by the Diamondbacks prior to the 2019 season, Kelly established himself as a reliable innings eater by the end of the 2019 season, making 32 starts while throwing 183 innings. A fast start in the 2020 pandemic season came to a half when he had to undergo thoracic outlet surgery. He recovered to make 27 starts and throw 158 innings in a Covid interrupted season in 2021.
2022 started out great for Kelly. Seeing an uptick in velocity coming out of spring training he only allowed one run through his first three starts. He was solid through the end of June, making 15 starts, and going 6-5 with a 3.64 ERA.
The highlight came on May 6th at home against the Rockies when he fell just one out short of his first complete game. He gave up two singles with two outs in the 9th before being pulled by manager Torey Lovullo at 106 pitches. One bad start against the Dodgers on May 17th in which he gave up eight runs in just two innings had ballooned his ERA somewhat, but other than that he had established himself as the team's most consistent starter.
Then he took it up several notches. Making six starts and throwing 41.1 innings in July he went 4-0, with a 1.31 ERA to take the NL Pitcher of the Month award for the first time in his career. By the time September 1st rolled around he went seven scoreless innings against the Milwaukee Brewers to improve his record to 12-5 and lower his ERA to 2.84. Together with Zac Gallen, he formed one of the best 1-2 punches at the top of a rotation to that point.
Perhaps tiring a bit down the stretch as he pursued his oft stated goal of reaching 200 innings, Kelly had a string of poor starts against NL West rivals over the rest of September, giving up 22 runs in 29 innings. He managed to finish off the season strong however, throwing six innings of one run ball as he crossed the 200 inning threshold in the last game of the season on October 6th.
When it was all said and done Kelly had set career highs in games started, innings pitched, pitcher WAR, as well as career low ERA, WHIP, and home runs against. He ranked within the top 30 pitches in all of MLB, and established himself a solid No. 2 starter behind ace Zac Gallen.
There were a few caveats however. Through September first he had allowed just 10 home runs in 27 starts. That number was bound to regress, and it did, as over his final six starts, 35.1 innings, he allowed 11 homers.
He went 13-3 with a 2.71 ERA against every team not named the Los Angeles Dodgers. However the perennial division champions had Kelly's number as he went 0-5 with a 8.25 ERA against them.
2023 Outlook
Kelly, who turned 34 years old four days ago, is entering the second year of a three year extension that will pay him $8.5 million over each of the next two seasons. The team also holds an option for $7 million or a $1 million buyout for the 2025 season.
2022 was the second year in a row Kelly had a rough September. His determination to reach 200 innings was admirable, but the team may want to consider skipping or pushing back a few of his starts in 2023, especially if the D-backs are going to need him in the post season. It should be noted that Kelly will pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic next spring, prior to the start of the MLB regular season. While the team expressed their pride and support for Merrill to represent his country, there is somewhat of a track record of pitchers struggling in the regular season following participation in the WBC.
