Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Blake Walston
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Left-hander Blake Walston was coming off a breakthrough 2022 campaign that saw him reach Double-A in his Age 20 season. He had a particularly strong finish to the year, putting him on the short list of pitching prospects that had a chance to debut in 2023. However that opportunity never arose as his stuff backed up and struggled to limit free passes. Despite baserunners all over the place, he managed a 4.52 ERA in 144 innings. As a result of poor peripherals, he finds himself in a similar situation as a year ago.
Given that he still very much has middle of the rotation upside left, if he can rediscover his 2022 form, the team still elected to commit a 40-man roster spot to him. He's buried on the starting pitcher depth chart, but could find himself in the major leagues in 2024. He'll need to reduce the free passes and while keeping the ball of the barrel of the bat. 2024 will be a big year, as his 40-man clock has now started. At the start of the season, he ranks as the D-backs No. 18 prospect.
The Projection
Michael McDermott
The projection has Walston making five starts and five relief appearances, totaling 25 innings. The overall run prevention numbers aren't great with a 4.91 ERA and a 5.04 FIP, with the latter a result of a 15% strikeout rate vs. a 10% walk rate at the major league level with an average home run rate per nine innings. With those numbers, he's more of an up-and-down arm that fills in when the rotation needs him to. Having just been added to the 40-man roster, Walston will have all three option years on his contract with the first likely burned this season.
Why Walston Might Beat This Projection
The path to the rotation might be cleared if the organization elects to convert some of their starting pitchers to relievers. There will also have to be a couple more openings caused by injuries or performances from their young arms. Additionally Walston will also need to push himself towards the front of the line by performing well in Triple-A by the standards the organization set for him.
Even as a young arm, beating that projection shouldn't be fairly difficult if he has the opportunities. However those opportunities have to be earned by his performances in Reno and the big leagues, but in the event he gets more than five starts and five relief appearances he could very well beat a 4.91 ERA and 5.04 FIP.
Why Walston Might Not Beat This Projection
As it stands right now, Walston is likely ninth on the starting pitcher depth chart. With the D-backs potentially looking at losing two of their starters, they might be hesitant to start converting their major league ready arms. Additionally Walston could easily have a repeat year in the high altitude of Reno, which would be even more disappointing than his first year there.
If his 2023 stuff and performance is the new normal, then he's much less likely to beat this projection with fewer opportunities. At that point he's much more likely to end up as a reliever to see if they can get more velocity in shorter bursts.
Summary
The first step is getting his stuff back to where it needs to be. While he doesn't possess a great fastball, he was able to reach back for 96-97 MPH two seasons ago. Combine that with a curveball, slider, and changeup that all grade as above-average pitches, he still has as much a ceiling as any other pitching prospect currently in the organization. The question will be which version of Walston are the D-backs getting? The 2022 version who looked like a borderline Top 100 prospect or the 2023 version that didn't make much progress in Triple-A. The former is a future No. 3/4 starter, the latter is a bullpen conversion candidate.
