Sunday Snakes: Wrapping Up Spring Training

The Diamondbacks will play their final Spring Training game away from Chase Field later today. The team will be making their final decisions on the Opening Day roster when it comes down to the No. 5 starter, the bullpen, and the final bench bat.

No player has done more to improve his chance than Kyle Lewis. He's currently battling Pavin Smith, another former first rounder, for the fifth outfielder spot. After three major injuries on his right knee, including an ACL tear in 2016 and torn meniscus in 2018, Lewis' speed and athleticism took a big hit and prompted the Mariners to trade him for catcher/outfielder Cooper Hummel. Despite the lack of speed, his bat has come on strong this spring. In 10 Cactus League games, Lewis is 11-for-25 (.480) at the plate with three doubles, three home runs, and an OPS of 1.541.

While the raw surface numbers are more than enough to make the case for his inclusion on the Opening Day roster, we're going to further illustrate how locked in he's been this spring. In his seven games played at Salt River Fields, there are 15 recorded batted ball events for Lewis in which he's posted an average exit velocity of 97.2 MPH and five barrels (33.3% per BBE). The combination of quality contact plus a strikeout to walk ratio of 6/5 in his 31 plate appearances has the organization looking to find him room on the roster.

How Lewis fits on the roster is going to be interesting. The team will need to limit his exposure in the outfield given both his lack of speed and history of knee injuries, so expect most of his starts to be as the designated hitter. He'll likely be in the lineup in the 50 games that Arizona will face a left-handed starting pitcher, plus when the team needs to rest Christian Walker or any of their other outfielders. Over a full season, we're probably looking at 65-70 starts and roughly 300 plate appearances.

Corbin Carroll's Magnificent Spring

While Lewis was the player who improved his chances to make the roster the most, Carroll certainly entered this spring with the most to prove. The 22-year-old outfielder had a solid first five weeks with Arizona, hitting .260/.330/.500 with four home runs in his first 32 games. That was enough to convince the organization to sign him to an eight-year extension.

Entering the season, most prospect publications have Carroll as one of the best prospects in the game. So far this spring, he's more than lived up to the billing. In 15 games he's hitting .390/.510/.659 with five doubles, three triples, and a 6/10 strikeout to walk ratio. He's shown an improvement at turning on pitches on the inner third of the plate, consistently driving the ball into the right center field gap and down the right field line for extra base hits.

Baseball America published a list of 25 players who stood out the most to scouts in Spring Training. Carroll was listed second, just behind the Marlins' Edward Cabrera. He's considered the preseason favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year due to his potential five-tool impact and opportunity to showcase that for an entire season.

The key for Carroll to reach his ceiling will be his ability to hit left-handed pitching and his ability to control strikeouts. Between both the minors and the majors, Carroll hit .256/.341/.437 with four home runs against southpaws. He struggled in his 30 plate appearances against them in the majors, going 5-for-28 (.179) with three doubles, a triple, and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Carroll's strikeout rate is another concern, as Jack Sommers pointed out in his analysis of the extension. In the minors, Carroll had a 23.6% strikeout rate. His strikeout rates were 24.6% in Double-A, 22.9% in Triple-A, and 27.0% in the big leagues in 2022. The strikeout rate will likely regress towards his minor league average, but for a guy whose game is very much reliant on making contact and using his speed as a weapon that is something to monitor.

Final Thoughts On Rotation Battle

One of the big story lines this spring was the battle for the final rotation spot. Ultimately it came down to the two expected leading candidates, Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson. We may have an idea of who won the rotation spot by Tuesday afternoon, as that would set either Nelson or Jameson up to pitch April 3rd in San Diego.

Between the two pitchers, Nelson has the better fastball thanks to above-average extension due to his lanky 6'3" frame whereas Jameson's sinker-slider combination has proven to baffle big league hitters. Looking at last year's results, Nelson had a better xERA, 2.24 to 4.49, although FIP, xFIP, and SIERA liked Jameson's work more. Both pitchers have a small number of big league innings, but this battle isn't so cut and dry. It could come down to how each pitcher handled their off-season goals.

One subplot to this story was Brandon Pfaadt and his impressive showing this spring. In four appearances, Pfaadt allowed just five runs in 12 innings, with 15 strikeouts and four walks. Unfortunately the strong showing wasn't enough to make the Opening Day rotation, but it could mean that he is one of the first arms to be called up from the minors if a spot in the rotation opens up due to injuries or poor performance.

Revamped Bullpen

The 2023 Opening Day bullpen will look a lot different than it did a year ago. Left-hander Joe Mantiply is the only reliever standing from the 2022 Opening Day bullpen. Only two of the other seven relievers, Corbin Martin and Mark Melancon, are still currently in the organization, but will spend the vast majority of the season on the injured list and are doubtful to throw a pitch for the 2023 D-backs. Kevin Ginkel is the only other reliever who was in the organization on Opening Day 2022.

In the off-season the team went out and signed Miguel Castro and Scott McGough in free agency, traded for Carlos Vargas, and signed a host of minor league free agents that included Jeurys Familia and Ryan Hendrix to have a competition for camp. Barring any last-minute developments, it seems like four of those five players could start the season in the big league bullpen.

Ryan Hendrix might be the biggest surprise to make the roster. Originally a fifth round pick that flopped in Cincinnati's bullpen with a 5.85 ERA in 45 career appearances, he came to camp and left a strong impression on D-backs manager Torey Lovullo. After allowing home runs in three of his first four appearances, Hendrix has not allowed a hit or walk while struck out 10 in his last five games. The 28-year-old right-hander features a mid-90s sinker and a mid-80s slider, the latter a legitimate swing-and-miss offering.

The D-backs are hoping a revamped bullpen will allow them to close out games they weren't able to last season. The D-backs had a second half record of 34-36 last season despite the leaky bullpen, so an improvement to a league-average bullpen could have Arizona quickly approaching .500 or better this season.

Final Opening Day Roster Prediction

Starting Rotation: Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Madison Bumgarner, Zach Davies, Ryne Nelson

Bullpen: Miguel Castro, Scott McGough, Andrew Chafin, Joe Mantiply, Kevin Ginkel, Carlos Vargas, Ryan Hendrix, Cole Sulser

Starting Lineup: Gabriel Moreno, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Nick Ahmed, Josh Rojas, Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jake McCarthy, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Bench: Jose Herrera, Geraldo Perdomo, Evan Longoria, Kyle Lewis