Zac Gallen Looks to Play Role of Stopper Against Padres
The Diamondbacks have lost back-to-back games to drop to an 11-9 record, but they will look to their ace to stop a losing streak. The D-backs currently sit 1-2 against the San Diego Padres in the season series after last night's loss. There are no new health updates to report on the team.
How to Follow
Television: Bally Sports Arizona (AZ); Bally Sports San Diego (SD); MLB Network (National)
Radio: 98.7 FM KMVP Arizona's Sports Station (AZ), KHOV Univision 105.1 (SPA-AZ); KWFN 97.3, XEMO 860 (SD)
Starting Pitcher Matchups
RHP Zac Gallen (2-1, 3.33 ERA, 24.1 IP, 28 K) - Gallen is coming off two consecutive scoreless starts, firing 13.1 innings with 18 strikeouts against the Brewers and Marlins en route to winning National League Player of the Week. However he faces the NL West team that's had the most success against him over his career. Gallen is 1-3 with a 4.22 ERA in nine career starts against San Diego, with opposing hitters managing an .817 OPS. In his previous start against the Padres, Gallen allowed five runs in six innings but walked away with a no-decision when Arizona came from behind to win 8-6.
Gallen features a fastball that averages 93 MPH that plays up due to a spin rate that is in the 80th percentile. He also mixes in a knuckle curve that is his best swing-and-miss pitch, a cutter, and a changeup. While not particularly dominant, Gallen is the definition of a "command and control" style pitcher, able to hit his spots effectively to jump ahead in the count and use his full repertoire to put away hitters. He's on pace to post career bests in strikeout (29.6%) and walk rates (5.3%).
RHP Seth Lugo (2-0, 2.70 ERA, 16.2 IP, 17 K) - Lugo is a former reliever turned starter after signing a two-year contract with the Padres last winter. Despite the transition to the rotation, the Padres are not too overly concerned with his pitch count as he's gone at least 93 pitches in all three starts. While he's been off to a solid first three starts on the season, his batted ball results suggest he's due for regression if he continues to give up solid contact. His xERA of 4.11 has a bigger gap than his 3.16 FIP and 3.41 xFIP.
Lugo throws a fastball that averages 93 MPH, a curveball, slider, changeup, and sinker. The main pitch he relies on is his curveball, which ranks in the 98th percentile in spin rate at 3245 RPM. He attacks hitters vertically with the fastball and curveball, which account for over 70% of his pitches. The key will be for the D-backs to identify the fastball, which has been hit hard this season with an average exit velocity of 96.0 MPH and launch angle of 22°. Arizona should stack their lineups with left-handed hitters, as Lugo is mostly a two-pitch pitcher, but then be prepared to insert their right-handed bats later in the game.
Lineups
Padres @ Diamondbacks: April 21, 2023
Notes
Arizona continues to ride the hot bat of Pavin Smith, who gets the start over outfielder Jake McCarthy. Smith is hitting .364/.440/.773 in his first eight games of the season. Smith's batted ball data supports this start with an average exit velocity 94.7 MPH, a hard hit rate of 70.6%, and three barrels on the 17 balls he's put into play. Following up on McCarthy, D-backs manager Torey Lovullo said he's seeing "a little bit of a forced swing to make contact rather than trusting the barrel and letting it eat".
Since starting the season 0-for-16, Alek Thomas is hitting .282/.300/.487 with five extra base hits. His average exit velocity is up over four MPH compared to last season, and his hard-hit rate of 52.2% ranks in the 89th percentile. The young outfielder hasn't quite enjoyed a sustained hot streak at the plate yet this season, but the signs are there for a potential breakout.
The two key batters for Gallen to contain are Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jake Cronenworth. Tatis is 3-for-9 with two home runs and Cronenworth is 6-for-17 with a home run against the D-backs ace.
Arizona hitters are not that familiar with Lugo, who was mostly a reliever with the New York Mets in his career, with no D-back having more than six career at-bats against the Padres right-hander.
