Can Corbin Carroll Hold On to Win Rookie of the Year Award?

With just 34 games left in the season, Corbin Carroll is still the frontrunner to win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year award. On the season, the Diamondbacks rookie outfielder is hitting .277/.355/.509 with 22 home runs and 38 stolen bases. His home run and stolen base totals lead all major league rookies. He is the first ever National League rookie to have a 20 HR/30 SB season, which from a narrative standpoint can only help his chances.

Two key stats that also help Carroll's chances of walking home with the award, and consequently an additional first round pick for the D-backs, are Win Probability Added (WPA) and Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR). His 3.3 WPA is significant, as there have only been 40 rookies since the start of the Integration Era (1947) to amass that total. 36 of those 40 rookies would go on to win the award. Additionally his 4.5 bWAR leads all major league rookies. In nine of the last 10 seasons, the rookie with the highest bWAR has won the award. The lone exception came in 2019, when Pete Alonso beat Mike Soroka despite the latter edging him 5.9 to 5.2.

Just a month ago, it looked like Carroll was going to run away with the award after starting his first ever All-Star game in his hometown of Seattle. In the first half, he hit .289 with 18 home runs and a .915 OPS to establish himself as one of the best young talents in the game. But a second half slump, in which he's batting .250 with just four home runs and a .748 OPS, has left the door for the rest of the field to catch up. Carroll has turned it around recently, as he is 9-for-17 with a double and home run in his past five games. He'll need to finish the season strong to keep the field away at arm's length.

One player who has considerably closed the gap has been Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain. McLain debuted on May 15th, and is hitting .293 with 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases while splitting time at shortstop and second base. In total, his contributions add up to 3.7 bWAR, second amongst National League rookies. Seeing McLain win the Rookie of the Year award would sting doubly for the D-backs, who failed to sign Matt McLain after drafting him in the first round of the 2018 draft.

There are some reasons to believe that McLain could potentially falter down the stretch. It starts with his batting average, which should drop when factoring in both a 28% strikeout rate and an unsustainable balls in play average (BABIP) of .389. With a Sprint Speed that ranks in the 91st percentile on Statcast, we can't rule out the possibility of McLain being able to sustain a higher BABIP. Should any of his batting numbers regress, it likely ends any possibility of pulling off an upset in the award.

With five weeks left in the season, there is still enough time for the award to be decided. However factoring in the numbers for both Carroll and McLain, it's much more likely the latter will regress at the end when considering both the strikeout rate and the likely unsustainable BABIP. In the event the D-backs rookie is able to play well from here on out and hold on to win the award, it would make a postseason trip all that more likely for the Diamondbacks along with giving them an additional pick right after the first round.