What Does a Contending Diamondbacks Team Look Like?

The Diamondbacks are universally projected to be a mid 70's win team. Over/Under betting lines range between 74.5 to 75.5 wins. Fangraphs, depth chart projections project Arizona to win 77 games. Baseball Prospectus has projected 74 wins, the same as last year.

Clearly the Diamondbacks are not expected to contend for a playoff spot. Asked on the first day of spring training what the definition of a successful season would be, Mike Hazen replied that "being in the position to be aggressive at the [trade] deadline, to buy, and play meaningful games in September". Clearly his expectations are higher than the most others.

In order for the D-backs to be on the periphery of the wild card chase, they are going to have beat their projections by at least 9-10 games, or roughly one standard deviation. How can they do that? Typically teams that outperform their projections have good fortune in three areas: Health, Breakouts, and Career Years

Health

While good training, emphasis on flexibility and a strong medical staff can all help mitigate injuries, and teams spend a lot of time and money trying manage the health of their players, sometimes this comes down to luck. That said, the D-backs under Mike Hazen/Torey Lovullo have generally experienced better than average health, with the glaring exception of 2021.

One way to measure health is simply looking at the number of players who had injured list stints, and how many total days lost. That can tell you a lot, but can also be misleading. If a fringe reliever or 6th starter has a season ending injury early in the year, the days will add up. But how critical was that player's performance to the overall team performance ?

Another way to look at it is the percentage of expected production lost. Baseball Prospectus has a metric that calculates the % of WARP missed. This tool helps measure the impact of injuries. That is only available since 2020 however. Below is a table showing how the D-backs have fared in the Mike Hazen/Torey Lovullo era.

The higher the rank number the better the health was. In four of the last five years the D-backs have been healthier than more than two thirds of the league. At the same time the Diamondbacks did a decent job of filling in their depth this past off season, so they should be somewhat protected from injury, especially in the rotation where they were decimated in 2021.

Breakouts

I'm defining breakouts for players that are in their first, second or third year in the majors breaking out into an above-average or better player. Typically mid-table teams need at least a couple of these types of player to break out. The Diamondbacks are blessed with a strong young core of players poised to do just that. None more than Corbin Carroll, who is a leading rookie of the year candidate. Few if any players can bring his combination of hitting, speed, and defense. A 4.0 WAR or higher season from Carroll would be a big first step for the team.

But he can't be the only one. In order for the D-backs to contend in 2023, they are going to need at least one more young players to break out.

The D-backs are blessed with three top young starting pitching prospects, in Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, and Brandon Pfaadt. At least one of these three must make over 25 starts and put up better than average run prevention, to the tune of around a 3.50 or better ERA, or 115 or better ERA+

Career Years

These types of seasons come from previously unheralded players that have been solid in a career, but have never performed at a star level. So Ketel Marte is not a candidate for this category for example. He likely had his career year in 2019. The Dbacks don't need a repeat if they can get a career year or two elsewhere. It will suffice for Marte to just be healthy and at least meet his projections, (.795 OPS, 121 wRC+, 3.3 WAR). Likewise, Zac Gallen doesn't need to be better than last year. He just needs to be healthy and meet his projections.

The D-backs will need at least a couple of unexpected performances however. I'm picking Josh Rojas from the position player side. He already has two skills that he's proven to excel at, getting on base and base running. After reading a good analysis from our good friends at AZ Snake Pit, I'm betting he ups his power game, increasing his homers from last year's total of nine to about 15. I'm also confident that he meets the challenge to improve his defense . In addition, with the new rules in place, it's easy to see Rojas taking advantage by increasing his stolen base total from 23 to over 30. This could all add up to a four WAR season, even in a platoon role.

The other career year needs to come from the bullpen. The guy that needs to come through is newly signed Miguel Castro. A veteran of 8 major league seasons despite being just 28 years old, Castro has a career 4.12 ERA and 106 ERA+, or in other words, about average. He's had a few good seasons and a few poor seasons, but has never had an ERA below 3.45. Castro needs to post his career year in 2023, putting up a sub 3.00 ERA to help stabilize the bullpen. His contract is loaded with incentives not just for games pitched, but also games finished, so he should be motivated to be his best self for Torey Lovullo.

Summary

The question was asked what does a contending Diamondbacks team look like. It looks like a team with very good health, allowing established veterans to perform to their projected levels. It includes a couple of young players breaking out into well above average players. And it includes a couple of average veterans posting their career years. It also looks like a team with an identity playing crisp, athletic baseball with a much better bullpen than last year. The Diamondbacks are as good a bet as any team to break free from the "rest of the pack" in the 72-82 wins tier, but it's going to take some big steps forward.