Diamondbacks Top Prospects #6: RHP Ryne Nelson
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Name: Ryne Nelson
Age: 24
Position: Starting Pitcher
Acquired: 2019 MLB Draft, 2nd Round (56), $1.1M signing bonus
Tools: Fastball 70, Curveball 50, Slider 60, Changeup 50, Command 50, Overall 55
Nelson's fastball will start at 95-97 MPH early in games, where it is a 65-grade pitch and sets up the rest of his repertoire. Later in the game his fastball will drop in the 93-95 MPH range, in which he starts mixing in more mid 80s sliders and changeups. His slider is the best secondary pitch, with a downhill angle and late sweep to make it a big swing-and-miss pitch against right-handed hitters. They are working on trying to add more velocity to the pitch, which currently sits 12 MPH slower than the fastball, to make it look more like a fastball than an off-speed delivery.
He uses his curveball more to steal strikes early in the count, but he has gotten some swings and misses off the pitch. Pitching coach Brent Strom talked about eliminating the "hump" to try to make the pitch more difficult for hitters to pick up. The changeup has some utility against left-handed hitters, with an average amount of drop and horizontal movement.
ETA: 2023
Risk: Medium-Low
2022 Overview
2022 Diamondbacks Players Review
Coming off a strong 2021 season with Amarillo, Nelson was a good year away from seeing big league action. The season started off slowly, as mechanical changes he made in the off-season resulted in a velocity drop. The player development staff was able to correct those problems, allowing Nelson to regain a tick on his fastball and improve his bottom line results. In the final three months with Reno, Nelson had a Sub-5.00 ERA in one of the most hitter-friendly leagues. That earned him a big league call-up, making his debut on September 5th against the San Diego Padres.
In his major league debut, Nelson fired seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 Diamondbacks win. He opened his career with 13 consecutive scoreless innings in his first two MLB starts, a franchise record. He got roughed up for three runs in 5.1 innings in his final start of the year. After the start he reported some soreness and subsequent imaging revealed right scapula inflammation ending his season. In three career starts, he went 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA, 16 strikeouts and six walks in 18.1 innings.
2023 Outlook
Nelson's injury did not require surgery, so he'll be able to fully participate this upcoming spring. He'll be one of many pitchers competing for an Opening Day rotation spot. If he's not in the Opening Day rotation, he will likely start the year with Triple-A Reno, although the organization should not wait too long to decide if he's a starter or reliever. With the need for the team to shore up the bullpen sooner rather than later, 2023 could be a big year to determine his long term fit with the organization. They'll need to decided if he's more valuable to the club as a #4/5 starter or as a multi-inning weapon in the back-end of the bullpen.
MLB Projection
As mentioned above, the organization needs to make a decision on how they want to use Nelson long term. Given that his stuff begins to fall off around 50 pitches, he may be a candidate to move to the bullpen in a high leverage role as opposed to the "Five and Dive" starter. With a fastball that would be 95-98 more regularly with a four-pitch mix, he is a candidate to provide the team more than three outs in an appearance. On the flip side if he's able to maintain his best stuff for more than 50-60 pitches, he's more valuable to the D-backs as a #3/4 starter than as a back-end of the bullpen weapon. He has starter stuff, so they should try to see if they can get more out of him.
