Can Corbin Carroll Rescue His Batting Line in 2024?

Corbin Carroll's sophomore slump has been well documented. Already 60 games into the 2024 season, last year's National League Rookie of the Year is batting .194/.279/.284, .563 OPS with just two home runs. This is a stunning decline from his rookie and All-Star season in which he hit .285/.362/.506, .868 OPS with 25 homers.

10 days ago I published an article identifying issues with handling fastballs as an especially alarming trend. Since that time he's seen only slight improvement. There have been a couple of multi hit games and a few more hard hit balls.

But over his last nine games he's still hitting just 7-34, .206 with a double, a triple, and five walks. The base on balls are encouraging, but he went just 1-9 in the final two games of the Mets series over the weekend.

In an off the cuff comment I made to the writers of Inside the Diamondbacks, I said at this point I'd be satisfied if Carroll were able to get his batting average up to .230 and OPS to .680. The led to a discussion of what his batting line would need to be over the rest of the season just to reach those modest levels.

So I did some simple math, the results of which are presented below.. Each scenario is explained below the table For context, through June 2nd MLB average is .240/.311/.387, .698 OPS.

Corbin Carroll Rest of Season Batting Line Scenarios | Jack Sommers

Scenario 1: This is simply what Carroll would need to hit in order to reach a .230 BA and .680 OPS. Notably, both those numbers are below league average, but at this point, expectations must be dialed down. Carroll would need to hit .250 with a .748 OPS the rest of the way to get to that lowered expectation.

Scenario 2: I then decided to check the Fangraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season, or ROS projections. That is derived from averaging two projection system's outputs, ZiPS and Steamer, and applying a playing time projection. By sheer coincidence, the FGDC ROS projection is almost exactly the same as the "needs" numbers I arrived at.

Scenario 3: ATC ROS is another set of projections that can be found at Fangraphs, and often rates as one of the more accurate systems, so I provided those numbers as well. They also happen to be the most optimistic set of projections.

Summary

Carroll would need to hit significantly better from here on out just to raise his batting line to a league average level, and even that may be too much to expect. The damage is done in terms of the 2024 numbers that will go on the back of his baseball card.

That doesn't mean Carroll can't or won't be a valuable and contributing member of this baseball team. He's playing good defense, still runs the bases as well as any player in the league, and certainly still has the talent and athleticism to improve at the plate.

Five days ago I asked the question of whether Jake McCarthy should be moved to the leadoff spot in the order and Carroll be moved back down the order. Torey Lovullo clearly feels that is not the way to go, and for now at least he'll likely continue to put Carroll first or second in the order. If he can get his OBP over .330 the rest of the way, he'll be an asset there, even if the power doesn't come.