How Concerning Ryne Nelson's Ugly Start Against the Braves Really is

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson has been the team's best starter since midway through the 2025 season — only, it hasn't looked like it yet this season.

After a rough inning against the Dodgers led to four earned runs in Nelson's season debut, the right-hander suffered an even uglier outing against the Atlanta Braves Thursday night at Chase Field.

Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson knocked around by Braves

Mar 27, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against los angeles — Mar 27, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Nelson, whose trademark fastball has been his best weapon, gave up a pair of early runs on that offering.

That appeared to scare him out of the zone a bit, as he began to struggle to land the pitch for strikes. Multiple balls were hit extremely hard but corraled by center fielder Alek Thomas.

Nelson hung a zero on the scoreboard in the fourth inning, but the fifth is when it all fell apart. Nelson — still struggling with command — walked back-to-back hitters to open the frame.

And then, a rare error by third baseman Nolan Arenado led to a meltdown. With bases loaded, Nelson issued his third walk of the inning to score a run. A slow throw by Ketel Marte then led to missed opportunity to turn another double play.

Nelson was pulled with two outs, after which Kevin Ginkel gave up a walk and three base hits. The Braves grabbed a 10-1 lead. Seven went on Nelson's line, though only two were earned as a result of the defensive miscues behind him.

How concerning was Nelson's outing?

It's still too early to overreact, but Nelson has had two straight poor games to open the year. In 2025, he only gave up three or more runs in back back-to-back games once.

It may have just been an off night, in terms of command. Nelson's fastball was still reading well in terms of velocity (it hovered in the 96-97 MPH range) and averaged 19 Induced Vertical Break. He was simply not getting the same results on the pitch.

But if batters are beginning to hone in on his fastball in an attempt to force him out of the zone, Nelson will need to adjust for that in his secondary usage. His cutter, slider and curveball accounted for six whiffs in Thursday's game.

In total, Nelson surrendered nine batted balls of 100 MPH or harder. Just three went for hits — two being the homers. In fact, Nelson has only allowed one base hit that has not left the yard in 2026.

In that sense, Thursday's outing is a concern, given how hard some of his outs were. But the right-hander has tended to rebound from poor outings in the past. It's too early to call it a serious concern, but it is a trend to watch as the year progresses — and Merrill Kelly's return looms.