Can the D-backs Hitters Wake up Against Kenta Maeda?

The Diamondbacks play the Twins today at Target Field in Minneapolis. Game time is listed at 4:10 P.M. MST but due to a pre-game ceremony first pitch is pushed back to 4:45 P.M. T.V. Coverage will start at 4:30

The two teams have identical 57-54 records but are likely headed in different directions. Minnesota is in first place in the AL Central with a 2.5-game lead over the Guardians. The D-backs trail the Dodgers by 7.5 games in the NL West and are 1.5 games out of the final NL Wild Card spot.

Pitching Matchup

Kenta Maeda, RHP (2-6, 4.53 ERA in 11 starts, 53 IP) is starting for the Twins tonight. The Diamondbacks faced him frequently when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but have not seen him since he signed with the Twins in 2020.

Don't be fooled by his high ERA, Maeda is still a good pitcher. He went on the IL with an arm injury after giving up 10 runs in three innings against the Yankees on April 26th. He came back two months on June 23rd, and in seven starts, 38 innings pitched since then has a 2.63 ERA and a 2.98 FIP. He still has the same arsenal, Fastball, Slider, Changeup. His balls-in-play profile has changed dramatically though. After averaging well over 42% ground ball rate in his career through 2020, that's down to 32% this year and his fly ball rate is a career-high 49%

Ryne Nelson, (6-5 4.84 ERA in 22 starts, 119 IP ) pitched well in his last outing, going 6.2 innings and giving up two runs in a no-decision. Nelson has turned into somewhat of an innings eater. While he's not getting strikeouts, pitching to contact has allowed him to get into the 6th inning in six of his last seven starts, and in four of those he got into or finished the 7th.

His odd trend of pitching very well on the road (2.67 ERA) and very poor at home (8.01) persists. He's on the road in a good pitcher's park against just an average-at-best lineup, so the conditions are right for another strong road outing.

Lineups

The D-backs offensive woes continued last night, losing 3-2. They've scored just 17 runs in their last eight games, (2.1 R/G) while batting .205/.260/.287, .547 OPS. The only one hitting at the moment is Lourdes Gurriel Jr, who homered yesterday. He's 8-26, .308 with two homers and two doubles in his last seven games. Nobody is colder than Corbin Carroll, who is 4-30, .133, and just one extra-base hit, a hustle double yesterday on what should have been a single in the gap.

Jose Herrera is starting his second game in a row and seventh of the last 10 team games behind the plate. Carson Kelly's poor play has relegated him to the role of the backup to the backup as the team awaits Gabriel Moreno's return from a shoulder injury.

Ryan Jeffers is starting at Catcher for the Twins. He has been in a fairly equal timeshare with Christian Vazquez this month. He has been the far better hitter, batting .281/.385/.455, .840 OPS in 199 PA. Vazquez is considered the better defender by reputation, but Jeffers actually has the better defensive metrics this year. (+3 rDRS vs -1 for Vazquez)