Diamondbacks at Dodgers NLDS Game 1 Preview

Making their first playoff appearances since 2017, the Wild Card series winners Arizona Diamondbacks are in Los Angeles to take on the NL West Division winners Dodgers for game one of a best of five series. First pitch is at 6:20 PST.

Arizona finished the season 84-78, capturing the 6th and final seed of the of the playoffs. Having advanced to the division series, the Diamondbacks are considered the underdogs. The Dodgers finished the season 100-62, capturing their 10th division title in the last 11 years. The lone year they have not won the division since 2013 was in 2021 when they finished second in the division despite winning 106 games. With all that winning, the postseason track record for the Dodgers is spotty, as their only Word Series title came in 2020 during the Covid pandemic-shortened season.

Pitching Matchup

As reported yesterday, Merrill Kelly is feeling confident he will be able to break his losing streak against the Dodgers. (0-11. 5.49 ERA in 16 starts). The Diamondbacks co-ace enjoyed another very good season in 2023, interrupted for four weeks by a blood clot in late June. He still managed to make 30 starts and throw 178 innings and will be counted on tonight by Torey Lovullo to give quality innings. "I always think every time he takes the mound he's going to be great because I know what he believes in, " Lovullo said. But he's ready for this opportunity. And I don't care what's happened in the past. Everybody's 0-0, and it's Game 1 and he's ready for a challenge." At the same time Lovullo has made clear he will be aggressive with using his bullpen to stop momentum should the need arise, even early in the game.

Dave Roberts said that Clayton Kershaw is likely to be on a pitch count limit of 75-85 pitches, depending on the game is going. Kershaw has only pitched into the 6th inning once in his last eight outings since coming off the injured list in early August. Kershaw no longer throws 95, as his fastball is usually around 89-90 these days. But with great fastball comment and his terrific slider which has tremendous depth and late break, he is still one of the toughest pitchers in the game to face regardless of how many innings he throws. Said Roberts of Kershaw's slider: "I think that's been his money maker throughout his great career. He just has a pitch that it looks the same. It looks like a fastball. And when his slider is late and depthy it's hard to barrel it."

Lineups

Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte were flip flopped in the line for the matchup against Kershaw. The future hall of famer allowed two homers to a left hand batter this year. Both were hit by Carroll.

Lovullo said that Tommy Pham's turf toe has improved and he's well past the worst part. While he couldn't say when asked if it contributed to his recent slump, he qualified that with some analysis. " I think when you're talking about your right foot, getting your right foot engaged in your swing and keeping a good base -- and hitting is all legs for me anyway, I think you've got to be in a good spot. I think it was hurting him for him early on but he's in a much better spot now."

Pham was back legging it just fine in batting practice yesterday, dropping multiple bombs more than half way up the bleachers in both left and right center.

Alek Thomas has been playing against left hand pitching more lately. That is partially a function of keeping Pham off the outfield grass, and also Jake McCarthy's oblique injury keeping him off the playoff roster. Thomas is out there for his glove primarily. Asked about playing centerfield in Dodger Stadium and what's different about it he noted the size and speed of the grass.

"I think the field plays a lot smaller. It feels like the crowd is on top of you a little bit. The grass is very fast here. So definitely the elements are a little different here. But just gotta treat it the same. But definitely plays smaller and the grass is much faster."

Dave Roberts has his lineup stacked with left hand batters, five in all, including three in a row towards the bottom. But he has the right handed bats on the bench to counter Lovullo's pitching moves. The Diamondbacks added Kyle Nelson to the roster and have three left-handed relievers with Andrew Saalfrank and Joe Mantiply in addition to Nelson. "If they deploy those guys, those lefties, then if the situation calls for me hitting for Peralta or Heyward, I'll do that. If it doesn't, I won't", Roberts said.

Bullpens:

Both bullpens are fully rested. The D-backs had two days off before the start of this series and there is an off day tomorrow and Tuesday. The Dodgers meanwhile have not played in six days.

The LA bullpen posted an MLB best 3.42 reliever ERA in 2023. Evan Phillips recorded 24 saves while blowing just three while posting 2.05 ERA. Brusdar Graterol had an insane 1.20 ERA in 67 innings.

Michael McDermott wrote an in depth article about the improvements in the D-backs bullpen since the addition of Paul Sewald at the trade deadline. It's a great read you should check out.