Upstart Reds and Diamondbacks Clash in Cincinnati

The Diamondbacks are in Cincinnati this weekend to play a three game series against the Reds. First pitch at Great American Ballpark tonight is 4:10 P.M. MST, 7:10 P.M. EST. The Diamondbacks enter play today tied with the Giants for the first Wild Card with a 54-43 record. The Reds are 52-46, one game behind the Phillies and Marlins who are in a virtual tie for the final Wild Card spot.

Arizona won two of three from the Atlanta Braves this week but dropped the series finale yesterday. They came out of the All-Star break getting swept by the Blue Jays three straight. The D-backs are 4-6 in their last 10 and 8-12 in their last 20.

The Reds meanwhile have cooled of late as well. A 12-game win streak between June 10th-23rd vaulted them into the playoff race. They too were swept in their first series after the break, losing three straight to the Brewers. They then dropped the first two games of a four game set with Giants before taking the final two games for the series split. The Reds are 3-7 in their last 10 games.

Pitching Matchup

Tommy Henry LHP, 5-2, 3.89 ERA, 5.07 FIP

Henry is making his 15th start of the year. In his last outing he failed to make it out of the fifth inning, giving up three runs on 7 hits and a walk in 4.1 innings against the Blue Jays in a loss. Prior to that he had thrown 24.1 innings over four starts, giving up just four runs.

Henry's fastball averages just 90 MPH. He depends on location and getting swings on his breaking and off-speed pitches just out of the zone to induce soft contact. He can dial up a strike out when he really needs one, but will generally pitch to contact, depending on his defense. Henry is fly ball pitcher however and that could be a problem today in the most homer friendly ballpark in MLB. GAB has a 133 HR park factor, inflating homers above league average roughly 33% according to Baseball Savant.

Ben Lively RHP, 4-5 3.72 ERA, 4.87 FIP

Lively was drafted by the Reds in the 4th round in the 2013 draft. He was traded to the Phillies and then bounced around to the Royals and even spent a couple months in the D-backs organization in 2019. Unable to establish himself in the majors, he went to Korea to pitch in the KBO for several years. Back in MLB with the Reds, he is having a good year so far.

Lively has made nine starts and given up two runs or less in seven of them. Two bad back to back starts in early June inflated his ERA however. He suffered pectoral strain June 24th that sidelined him a couple weeks but came back on July 9th and over his last two starts he's allowed just two runs in 9.2 innings.

Lively throws six difference pitches, including a four-seam, sinker, slider, and will also mix in a change up, curveball and cutters. He averages low 90's with his fastball. The slider is the best offering, and the sinker is much better than the four-seam, which gets hit hard.

Lineups

Emmanuel Rivera is back in the lineup today, playing third base. Over his last four games he is 4-for-13, .308 with two homers.

The Reds lineup features rookie sensations Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer, all of whom were mentioned earlier today as players trying to catch up to Corbin Carroll in the Rookie of the Year race

Bullpens

Andrew Chafin has been reinstated from paternity leave and Joe Mantiply was optioned back to Triple-A Reno. Arizona has been rotating different players in the 9th inning, including Chafin earlier in the, then Miguel Castro and then Scott McGough. None have found consistency. Lately Kevin Ginkel converted save opportunities in back to back games. The closer-by-committee system has simply not worked for the D-backs however. They have 17 blown saves and a save percentage of 60%, which is only slightly below league average, but doesn't tell the whole story.

One way to see this is by focusing in on high leverage in the 9th inning reliever stats. MLB average ERA in those situations is 4.98, and FIP is 3.59. ERA is higher than FIP as typically a high leverage situation already includes a runner(s) on base. The D-backs rank 29th in MLB in this situation with a 10.20 ERA, and 28th with a 6.35 FIP

The Reds meanwhile have an All-Star closer in Alexis Diaz, who has 27 saves and a 1.92 ERA while striking out 13.7 batters per nine innings. Overall the Reds bullpen ERA is 3.89 and ranks 14th in MLB, compared to the D-backs who have a 4.29 pen ERA, ranking 21st. In those same high leverage ninth inning situations the Reds rank among the top 10 teams in the league.