A.J. Vukovich Presents an Interesting Profile for the Outfield

The Diamondbacks No. 14 prospect flashes impressive tools at times, but may have a limited ceiling due to the bat.

This article is part of a series counting down the Diamondbacks Top 30 prospects entering the 2024 season. These rankings are determined by Michael McDermott, in conjunction with the Inside the Diamondbacks staff.

Summary: A.J. Vukovich was selected by the Diamondbacks in the fourth round of the shortened 2020 Draft due to his compact stroke that delivers easy power. Signed to a well above slot bonus of $1.25 million, Arizona was likely hoping for a future starter. In his two years in the system, he's provided solid, but not great years with the bat and has to change positions. It's much more likely develops into a key bench role with concerns about how his bat translates to the big leagues and a move to the outfield.

Rank: 14

Age: 22

Height/Weight: 6'2" 210

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Tools: Hit 45, Power 55, Defense 50, Run 50, Arm 50, Overall 45

ETA: 2025

2023 Recap: After a solid but somewhat troubling year in Hillsboro, the D-backs promoted Vukovich to Double-A Amarillo for the 2023 season. With the Sod Poodles, he hit .263 with 24 home runs, a franchise record 96 RBI, and an .818 OPS. FanGraphs credited him with his best offensive season in minor leagues, hitting 11% better than the average Texas League player in that environment with a 111 wRC+. That certainly is not bad for a player in his Age 21 season in Double-A. The D-backs then sent him to the Arizona Fall League to see how he'd handle a less extreme hitting environment and Vukovich didn't necessarily impress with a .275/.326/.338 slash line in an OBP-driven league. Considering his success at Double-A, his 2023 season should be viewed as a successful one. He also made a position change from third base to a first base/outfield role, with the most starts coming in center field with 60. 

2024 Expectations: Vukovich will open up the 2024 season, which will be his Rule 5 evaluation year, with Triple-A Reno. The offensive environment of Greater Nevada Field and the Pacific Coast League in general could prove to be a difficult evaluation for the organization. However if he continues to improve at the plate, which should reflect in both his strikeout and walk rates, which were at 28% and 8% respectively in 2023, he could get a shot to contribute to a major league roster that could use a right-handed hitting outfielder.

Projection: Given he had back-to-back solid, but not great years, it's more likely he settles more into a bench role than a starter. Concerns about pitch recognition, considering he hits fastballs well but not breaking balls, will likely limit him to a fourth outfielder role. D-backs general manager Mike Hazen expressed concerns about evaluating Amarillo and Reno numbers when it's not grounded with plate discipline when losing Deyvison De Los Santos to the Rule 5 Draft, and the same principle applies here. Vukovich is a natural athlete and has handled the transition to the outfield well so far, but is still a work in progress. Fortunately he'll have the opportunity to learn from Dave McKay for both his defense and baserunning, so there's enough foundation for at least a capable defender at a corner. Given that Arizona lacks any solid right-handed bats in their system that are major league ready after Jordan Lawlar, Vukovich has an opportunity to earn a potential role with the D-backs over the next two seasons.

Top 30 Diamondbacks Prospects Entering the 2024 Season