Diamondbacks Farm System May 2023 Update: Triple-A Reno

We're now a full month into the minor league system, so we've got a healthy sample of plate appearances and innings to start evaluating some of the organization's top prospects. We'll start with their Triple-A affiliate, the Reno Aces. The Pacific Coast League and Reno can be a difficult place to evaluate numbers, given how hitter-friendly both the league and Reno can be due to high elevation (4500 feet) and/or dry climates that allow the ball to travel farther. So we must take the bottom line statistics on performance with a heavy grain of salt.

Looking at Reno's roster, the top prospects are starting pitcher types, a couple interesting relievers, and a few bats that could develop into solid role guys at the big league level. Right-hander Brandon Pfaadt (No. 2) and outfielder Dominic Fletcher (No. 14) have already been promoted to the big leagues and learning what it takes to succeed at that level.

Major League Baseball has also implemented an Automated Balls and Strikes system for the Triple-A level, so there is an adjustment period that may affect numbers as hitters and pitchers adjust to it. They already had the ability to challenge balls and strikes from last season and it proved to be a massive success.

Hitters

Dominic Fletcher earned his big league opportunity, hitting .323 with a .976 OPS in 22 games with Reno. He fit in well with the leadoff spot, where his ability to make consistent line drive contact and draw walks at a 9% rate led to a .417 on-base percentage. His all fields approach will lead to him putting up a solid average against right-handed pitchers in the big leagues. He's a fourth outfielder who's better suited to play a corner outfield spot, but could play center in a pinch.

Dominic Canzone is a difficult prospect to evaluate due to his streakiness at the plate. Through his first 28 games with Reno, Canzone is hitting .287 with nine home runs and an OPS of .988. His carrying tool is plus raw power, due to his ability to drive the ball when he makes line drive or fly ball contact with an average exit velocity of 95.1 MPH on such contact. Unfortunately, that also comes with a high ground ball rate of nearly 50%. That could be the one thing that prevent him from tapping more consistently into his best tool at the plate. While he's currently blocked from getting a big league opportunity, I believe he's earned the chance for a promotion when the opportunity presents itself.

Blaze Alexander was off to a hot start, hitting .458 with a 1.409 OPS, before suffering a broken thumb on a hit-by-pitch on April 13th. After breaking out last year with Double-A Amarillo last year, the injury was a major setback for the D-backs No. 17 prospect. He's likely looking at a return in June at the earliest, and the injury could impact the rest of his season.

Jorge Barrosa is hitting only .211, but has drawn a healthy amount of walks and has seven extra base hits in 21 games. The D-backs No. 24 prospect is known more for his speed and defensive skills. Barrosa is hitting .255 with a .910 OPS from the left side of the plate vs. .107 and .304 from the right side. Having an advantage from the left side of the plate isn't necessarily helpful with the left-handed hitting outfielders already on the big league roster.

Pitchers

Blake Walston (No. 7) has had the most success preventing runs, sporting a 2.62 ERA in seven starts, but has some very interesting numbers. Walks have been an issue, with a strikeout to walk ratio of 21/21. However, he might be figuring things out after 7.1 scoreless innings against Tacoma last night with seven strikeouts and only two walks. Hitters haven't been able to capitalize on those walks, as Walston has held them to a .193 average and .561 OPS on the season. While his ERA is due for some regression, last year suggests he's capable of making adjustments necessary to improve his game.

Slade Cecconi (No. 8) is the biggest wild card of all the pitchers in the system, with a huge range of potential outcomes. He flashes the potential for both a plus fastball and plus slider, but the rest of his repertoire is inconsistent. Despite an unsightly ERA of 8.20, thanks to eight home runs allowed in six starts, he has solid strikeout to walk ratio of 2.82. The lack of a third consistent offering handicaps his ceiling and the highest reliever risk.

Bryce Jarvis (No. 15) was promoted to Reno after pitching five scoreless innings in both his second and third start of the year. After spending much of the off-season improving his release extension, it has yielded immediate results. Opposing hitters are batting .176 with 33 strikeouts in six starts. With the fastball now becoming a potential third above-average outing in his repertoire, Jarvis has really boosted his stock in the first month of the year.

Justin Martinez has lit up the radar gun, but has struggled to throw consistent strikes. In only four of his 11 outings have 60% of his pitches been strikes. On the season as a whole, the D-backs No. 28 prospect has 18 strikeouts compared to 15 walks but it is trending in the right direction. In his last six outings, he has held opponents to a .105 batting average with 11 strikeouts and four walks. When he's around the zone, he has a very overpowering repertoire with a fastball that's been clocked as high as 102 MPH this season and two usable secondary pitches in a splitter and slider.

After getting sent down to Reno, Carlos Vargas has struggled to throw strikes. In seven appearances he has six walks and six strikeouts while pitching to a 7.36 ERA. In addition to the walks, opponents are hitting .290 against Vargas in Triple-A.

Other Notable Performances

Buddy Kennedy is hitting .381 with a 1.145 OPS. His walk rate is over 20% and has 15 extra base hits. Despite a decent hard-hit rate of 38.8% and a fly ball rate of 35.0%, his barrel rate is only 1.3%. That suggests the possibility of a very limited ceiling as a batter.

Phillip Evans is batting .451 with eight doubles, three home runs, 29 walks, and an OPS of 1.200. He was named Pacific Coast League Player of the Month for April. The 30-year-old infielder was a minor league signing over the past winter.

May 2023 Farm System Updates

Triple-A: Reno
Double-A: Amarillo
High-A: Hillsboro
Low-A: Visalia